Good Tuesday, everyone. We continue to track a potent storm system blowing in here for Wednesday and Halloween. This will likely bring heavy rain, strong storms, gusty winds, a big temp crash and even the potential for a few snowflakes for some.

We have a lot to talk about so let’s get after it.

The whole evolution of this storm hasn’t changed since I first started talking about it last week. Let me hit ya with some fast and furious thoughts to set it up…

  • The arctic front is stalled just to our west.
  • A moisture rich southwesterly flow kicks on ahead of this over the next few days.
  • Heavy rain and thunderstorms roll in on Wednesday and continue through Thursday as a few waves of low pressure move through.
  • The main low works right on top of us Halloween
  • Heavy rainfall of 1″-3″ will be possible across the entire state.
  • Wind gusts of greater than 30mph-40mph will be likely.
  • A few strong to severe storms are also possible starting Wednesday afternoon.
  • Temps crash from west to east on Halloween. We will be in the 60s during the morning with the 30s by evening.
  • There continues to be a small chance for the cold air to catch the back edge of the departing rain shield by Halloween evening. That could bring a few flakes of snow mixing in with the rain across central and eastern Kentucky.

Here’s the evolution of the show setup on the GFS…

Heavy rainfall is likely, with widespread 1″-3″ rain amounts showing up…

Those totals would put many cities into the top 10 or top 5 wettest Octobers on record.

Can we get a few flakes out of this setup on Halloween evening? It’s a possibility, but I can’t say it’s close to being a likelihood. The pattern has been suggesting this as a possibility for a while and the models finally started seeing the possibility a few days ago. The NAM shows the potential for a few flakes across the central and east…

Again, we are talking about just a CHANCE for a few FLAKES mixing in for a brief time. Still… It’s pretty awesome to be tracking the possibility before October is finished.

Something else that’s awesome? The temperature drop. Watch the numbers from early Thursday through Thursday evening with the 20s by Friday morning…

Those wind chill numbers are a big old OUCH…

As far as the potential for strong to severe storms, the chance is there by Wednesday afternoon then again early on Halloween. The Storm Prediction Center has the area in a low end risk for severe on Wednesday…

Here’s the risk area for Halloween…

Behind all this is a very cold start to November with deep troughs controlling the pattern. We may even be talking about some early season clipper action.

Given the busy storm ahead, today is a three update kinda day here on KWC. I should have your next update around noon, so check back.

Have a terrific Tuesday and take care.