Good evening, folks. It’s another really nice fall day, but this is going away very quickly as a big storm system rolls our way. This will bring some very ugly weather for Wednesday and Halloween before a cold November kicks off on Friday.

I’m not going to totally rehash everything I’ve talked about with each post for the past week. Instead, let’s break it down by my confidence level:

  1. (Tie) Heavy rainfall from 1″-3″ through Halloween
  2. (Tie) Temperature crash on Halloween. Readings drop from the 60s in the morning to the 30s by evening and then into the 20s that night.
  3. Gusty winds of greater than 30mph-40mph will be possible.
  4. Strong to locally severe storms. The low-end risk is there on Wednesday and then again early Thursday in the east. Damaging wind is the primary threat.
  5. The first flakes mixing in with the rain Halloween evening. It’s the lowest risk of the bunch, but a few flakes may show up across the central and eastern part of the state.

Here’s the evolution of it all from the GFS…

The Hi Res NAM only goes through around 8pm on Halloween, but you can see how the model is showing a few flakes firing up at that time…

The temperature crash is dramatic..

Hello, wind chills…

As far as the severe storms potential, the Storm Prediction Center has a low end severe weather risk for most of the state for Wednesday…

Additional blasts of cold are on the way this weekend through next week and this may include some clippers diving into the area from the northwest.

I will have the latest on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm and will have another update on KWC later this evening. Have a good one and take care.