Updating The Snow Potential

Good evening, everyone. I promised to drop by for another update on our increasing chance for the first snowfall of the season. The overall setup has not changed, but as we get closer, the models are obviously seeing things better and they are in pretty good agreement from less than 2 days away.

My overall thoughts have not changed one bit, but my confidence level is increasing a bit as we get closer. A few quick hitting thoughts:

  • The arctic front arrives from northwest to southeast Monday afternoon and evening.
  • Temps ahead of this boundary can spike to 60 as some rains increase.
  • As the front slams through, temps drop quickly through the 30s and into the 20s. That drop in itself can lead to a flash freeze.
  • Much of the precipitation with a setup like this falls behind the actual front. That’s where we are likely to find a band light to moderate snow developing.
  • A connection to Lake Michigan is likely to show up as well and that can keep snow showers and flurries going into Tuesday across the central and east.
  • Accumulations appear to be a decent bet, right now. Coatings to a few inches will be possible, especially on elevated and grassy surfaces.
  • Arctic cold settles in for Tuesday and Wednesday with near record lows possible.

I mentioned how the models were showing some pretty good agreement, so let’s take a look.

I’ll start with the Hi Res NAM that only goes through 1am Tuesday…

The NAM  takes us through the event…

The snowfall forecast from that run of the NAM…

The GFS continues to have a consistent snow signal…

The snowfall forecast from that run of the GFS…

Let’s check in on the European Model…

Snowfall from that Euro run…

All three models are forecasting Winter Weather Advisory type stuff, especially for the first snowfall of the season and the fact that it’s early November.

It’s looking more and more like the first First Call For Snowfall will be needed later tonight or on Sunday.

I’ll see you guys with the regular overnight update. Until we meet again, make it a good one and take care.

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8 Responses to Updating The Snow Potential

  1. Dottie says:

    Thanks for the update Chris. GO BIG BLUE!

  2. Michael says:

    Great update, and go TOPS!

  3. 540 line says:

    Can’t wait!
    So very thankful the heat and humidity has
    Surrendered to a fall with the
    Chance of snow!

    Thank you for all you do CB!

    Your wx blog is by far the best!!

    I have learned so much wx wise
    Much appreciated!

    God bless you all

  4. SpaceGhost says:

    At least the models have the tri-state dome in place already…

  5. Mark says:

    Of course the new 00Z NAM has just about nothing for KY.

  6. Mike S says:

    Why anyone would use an off run of the models is beyond me. I always either use the 0z or the 12z runs, NOT the 6z and 18z

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