Sunday Afternoon Winter Weather Update

Good afternoon, everyone.It’s a gorgeous day in the bluegrass state and that nice weather will roll over into the first part of Monday. The second half of Monday will feature an arctic front slamming in, bringing frigid temps and the first snowfall of the season for many.

Here are some updated thoughts:

  • The late arriving front means temps are mild for the daylight hours on Monday. Once the front blows in, temps drop some 20-30 degrees in a few hours.
  • Highs Monday may reach the low 60s and then be roughly 40 degrees colder by Tuesday morning with upper teens and low 20s.
  • Rain develops along and ahead of the front, then quickly transitions to snow behind it. That’s where the bulk of the precipitation will be.
  • A decent band of light to moderate snow will be noted as it works from northwest to southeast across the state.
  • As our wave of low pressure develops, there is likely to be an enhancement of the snow across southeastern Kentucky late Monday night and early Tuesday morning.
  • The northwest wind coming down the length of Lake Michigan is aimed at central and eastern Kentucky into Tuesday, keeping flurries and snow showers going.
  • Snowfall accumulation is likely across the entire region. Coatings to 2″ look good, especially on grassy and elevated surfaces. We will have to watch southeastern Kentucky for the possibility of locally higher amounts showing up.
  • I will have a First Call For Snowfall map out later this evening.
  • Given the rapid temp drop, slick spots will likely develop on area roads Monday night and Tuesday. This may bring a few delays or cancellations.
  • Temps are frigid and wind chills will be crazy for this early in the year. Record lows will be possible Wednesday.

The models continue to be in pretty good agreement with one another.

GFS

GFS Snowfall Map

European

Euro Snow Map

Short Range Canadian

Short Range Canadian Snow Map by 7am Tuesday

Canadian Snow Map

The NAM is the wimpiest with the snow numbers, but one of the biases is for the model to be too dry with systems moving in from the northwest. That’s usually the case with any kind of precip. Here’s the NAM…

One trend on all models from above is for the general coating to 2″ snow potential. The other is for the potential for a little more than that across the southeast.

Temps are going to be brutal for early November. Here are the lows for Tuesday morning…

Tuesday Morning Wind Chills

Wednesday Morning Lows

Wednesday Morning Wind Chills

Folks, this is a heck of a winter blast for so early in the season!

I will have another update later today. See ya then and take care.


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11 Responses to Sunday Afternoon Winter Weather Update

  1. Dawnp007 says:

    Loving it!!

  2. Rodger in Dodger says:

    Rodger is on the snow train! One met he follows is predicting warm weather for late Nov thru early-mid December so hopefully there’s some decent snow this week. This is Rodger in Dodger

  3. Cameron Fry says:

    Crazy how similar these last two November’s are. Hopefully this stretch is a sign of things to come!

  4. Dane says:

    Hey Chris, do you know what’s up with ICON? It appears to be even more of an outlier than NAM, especially here in NKY.

  5. Sam says:

    After last season Old Man Winter is letting us know that he is alive and well. Hopefully he won’t disappear like last year.

  6. Terry says:

    My motto is: Prepare for the least and hope for the most!

    Appalachia’s motto is: Prepare for the worst regardless if the least is the likely outcome…lol!

    • Jimbo says:

      I agree. Looks like the trend continues for the tri-state. Most of the models have the best accumulations north and south of me.

      • Terry says:

        Yeah, the models didn’t even give you any false fantasy hope with this system, consistently showing your area less:(

        I hope you over achieve!

  7. Mike S says:

    Of course, the NAM will not be correct. It would absolutely ruin the consistency of the other models, deflating everyone’s hopes for a larger accumulation. Yet, you are insisting a coating to 2″, which is exactly what the NAM is showing on this run.

  8. BubbaG says:

    CB is basically saying the warm ground is going to impact totals. Snowglobe snow is fine.

    Seems even the most optimistic are not expecting much, so no harm no foul.

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