Good evening, everyone. Our gloomy weather rolls on as a few light showers and drizzle roll across the state ahead of a Tuesday clipper. As we’ve been talking about for a while now, this is kicking off a super active weather pattern that will throw a lot of different systems our way between now and Thanksgiving.

I have no changes with the clipper coming for Tuesday, so there’s no need to rehash this.

The end of the week/weekend system continues to show up very well on all the models, but those models are exhibiting their normal biases. The Euro is usually too wound up and too far north/west with such systems and that looks to be the case with the low coming Friday night and Saturday…

That run does spit out some hefty rain totals around here…

On the flip side, the GFS is too flat and too progressive with our system…

So the European has the low going into Ohio and the GFS has the low going through South Carolina. If they meet in the middle, we are probably dealing with reality. That’s similar to what the average of the GFS Ensembles are showing…

This continues to look like a lot of rain from late Thursday through Friday, with the potential for some winter weather to show up at some point Saturday, depending on the track of the low.

This is part of the action packed pattern and the European Model shows what I’m talking about. Watch the above system and the one coming Thanksgiving week…

Once again, we are likely seeing the Euro too far west and north with this storm, but it’s a doozy…

If we look at the European Ensembles from next week through early December, focus on the block around Greenland and northeastern Canada. Watch how stable it is and how it forces lower heights from Alaska down into the US…

I told ya there’s a lot going on! Shew. Hows that for an evening update? Make it a good one and take care.