Looking Ahead To A Very Active Setup

Good evening, everyone. Our gloomy weather rolls on as a few light showers and drizzle roll across the state ahead of a Tuesday clipper. As we’ve been talking about for a while now, this is kicking off a super active weather pattern that will throw a lot of different systems our way between now and Thanksgiving.

I have no changes with the clipper coming for Tuesday, so there’s no need to rehash this.

The end of the week/weekend system continues to show up very well on all the models, but those models are exhibiting their normal biases. The Euro is usually too wound up and too far north/west with such systems and that looks to be the case with the low coming Friday night and Saturday…

That run does spit out some hefty rain totals around here…

On the flip side, the GFS is too flat and too progressive with our system…

So the European has the low going into Ohio and the GFS has the low going through South Carolina. If they meet in the middle, we are probably dealing with reality. That’s similar to what the average of the GFS Ensembles are showing…

This continues to look like a lot of rain from late Thursday through Friday, with the potential for some winter weather to show up at some point Saturday, depending on the track of the low.

This is part of the action packed pattern and the European Model shows what I’m talking about. Watch the above system and the one coming Thanksgiving week…

Once again, we are likely seeing the Euro too far west and north with this storm, but it’s a doozy…

If we look at the European Ensembles from next week through early December, focus on the block around Greenland and northeastern Canada. Watch how stable it is and how it forces lower heights from Alaska down into the US…

I told ya there’s a lot going on! Shew. Hows that for an evening update? Make it a good one and take care.


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3 Responses to Looking Ahead To A Very Active Setup

  1. Terry says:

    I am probably alone in saying this as most of KY had quite a bit of rain in October (slightly above average here), but I hope to see a decent amount this weekend as it is still a little dry in far SE KY. As far as winter weather, the next several days is just too warm with no real indication of a big cold blast but hopefully it will change by late next week.

    • Jimbo says:

      Looks to be pretty average for the rest of the month. Kinda boring unless you like rain from time to time. At least I don’t see any hint of the 70’s or 80’s anytime soon. Hopefully some Winter action will pickup after Thanksgiving.

      • Terry says:

        I wouldn’t mind seeing just a bit of Lake Effect in December. For some unknown and unexplained reason, we simply don’t get much Lake Effect snow anymore. Even in 2014 and 2015, we mostly had system only snow, not that I am complaining about those two winters as they were the best since the 90s but I miss a good Lake Effect event…just can’t get a good NNW wind flow anymore that will last more than a few hours. Seems like it has been almost 10 years since a really good Lake Effect snow in our region that really added up.

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