Wednesday Midday Thoughts

Good afternoon, everyone. It’s a dreary day out there as low clouds and some drizzle lingers, keeping temps down in the 40s for many. As we roll into the rest of the week, we have a healthy storm system set to bring us rain and the chance for a little winter weather. Overall, this pattern continues to be loaded with action over the next few weeks.

Showers will increase on Thursday as temps make a run at 60 ahead of the drops. Heavy rain arrives Thursday night into Friday as temps start to come back down.

This sets the stage for low pressure to work into the region by Saturday, bringing more rain into the state. The track of this low is important for determining if we can get some winter weather into parts of the state late Saturday into Saturday night.

The Canadian follows that scenario…

Here’s the GFS

The ICON shows a little winter weather on the tail end of this…

Here’s a quick breakdown of the highlights of this system:

  • Rainfall totals of 1″-2″ will be possible from Thursday through Saturday.
  • As the Saturday low moves through, there could be a 20-30 degree temp difference from one side of the low to the other.
  • Depending on the track of the low, there’s a chance for a little winter weather later Saturday. The best chance is across the north.
  • If this low is strong enough, a little rain and snow action will be possible across the area Saturday night into Sunday morning.

The storm system for early Thanksgiving week continues to bounce around on the models. Here’s the current take from the GFS…

Looking farther down the road, the ensembles continue to show a blocky pattern that can lead to some fun and games into early December…

You’ve been seeing me posting the Ensembles and how they have a pretty exciting look for the country into early December. Check out this tweet from Dr. Cohen…

It’s always good to see smarter folks than me picking up on the same thing. Of course, it doesn’t take much to fall into that category. 🙂

I’ll have another update later today and will have the latest on WKYT beginning at 4. Have a good one and take care.


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7 Responses to Wednesday Midday Thoughts

  1. Terry says:

    Ah, you do a great job Chris. Even the so-called geniuses in Meteorology can’t fully predict mid and long range very accurately. We are near 2020 and weather forecasting has a long ways to go. You do a very good job:)

  2. Rodger in Dodger says:

    Thank you for EVERYTHING you do, Mr Bailey. The online weather forums Rodger would watch in winters past on Accuweather and then on American Weather have all seemingly disappeared. Your longevity and dedication is remarkable.

    NOW let’s have a SNOWY winter!

    Rodger in Dodger

  3. Virgil E says:

    Oh good grief, there’s that “Polar Vortex” phrase in that tweet. Must be for clicks

  4. Andy Rose says:

    Hit above 50 without the help of the sun today

    • Terry says:

      I finally had time after work this evening to go back and watch the WYMT winter forecast. It is based too much on “typical” ENSO only conditions per NOAA so hopefully it want work out that way. It really doesn’t factor in the other possible impacts from snow in Canada and Russia, The Blob in the PA NW and other conditions. We will see as we have been very far below average south of Hal Roger’s PKW since 2016 with that 9 inches in Jackson last year WAY OVER what we had in the real SE KY area.

  5. AC says:

    A neutral ENSO does not guarantee a below-average snowfall season. In fact, according to an article I was recently reading published by the American Meteorological Society, they say snowfall totals are actually lower in warm and cold ENSO years compared to neutral years. Go figure.

    https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0477%282001%29082%3C1179%3ARSDAWE%3E2.3.CO%3B2

    Now, this doesn’t necessarily include the mountainous region of eastern Kentucky, so it may be that most of northern and central Kentucky will see an average to possibly slightly above average snowfall total for this winter compared to the rest of the state. It’s still a coin toss to me.

  6. Cold-Rain says:

    Still a ways to go before winter shows it’s hand..Have to like the odds of at least a better one than last..Liking the December 2 timeframe as models are showing a -NAO with a EPO in our favor..Seems like when some of these tele-connectors change is when you can get a good chance for early snow..Just hope Models are correct in predicting the -NAO and it shows up for the rest of winter..Seems like it’s been forever since we’ve had a NAO in winter..

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