Good afternoon, everyone. I wanted to drop by for a very quick update on the pattern ahead as we roll into Thanksgiving week. Things continue to look very active with several systems on the way, unlocking what appears to be a very wintry pattern for December.
The Tuesday system continues to look potent, bringing gusty winds and showers and storms in here for Tuesday and early Wednesday…
Wind gusts will likely top 40mph during this time. The NAM continues to throw out 50mph+ gusts…
The next system is mainly a shower maker as it moves in on Thanksgiving…
The GFS continues to spit out a small period of sleet on the leading edge of this across western Kentucky…
That sets the stage for a very busy rest of the holiday weekend as a bigger storm comes at us. Showers and thunderstorms look to come at us in waves, with the potential for strong to severe storms as temps spike. Following that comes a winter blast and some snow. Here’s the GFS showing what I’m talking about…
The Canadian is a little slower, but offers the same general idea…
I will have another update this evening. Make it a good one and take care.
I hope, even if only nickle and dime snow events, we can achieve a snowy December. It really feels less like the holidays with all of these warm Decembers over the past several years. 2009 was Harlan’s last white Christmas, and I think 10 years is long enough. Even if we were to have yet another brown Christmas this year, I at least hope for some snow and cold during the month leading up to the holiday…just feels right!:)
I agree with you. Warm and brown Holiday seasons are depressing. My last White Christmas was 2010. Anymore December is just another Autumn month. As September is just another Summer month. Matter of fact September has seen some of my hottest temps of the Summer in recent years.
Yes, I hope for a different season but it is hope only, no real confidence yet, pattern is leaning towards cold but the oscillations are all over the place and not in good agreement at all.
In the weather world:
green = brown and blue = white!
Too much green up there and too little blue for my liking but those maps only go through the first few days of the new month.
Also, I beg Chris to not most any of those awful ensemble frames this year. I know this sounds silly, but seeing large amounts of accumulation on those silly ensemble frames is like a predestined jinx, LOL!
The ensembles are good at broadbrushing, but that’s about it. It’s more used as a synoptic scale forecasting tool, IMO. Good for finding patterns and potentiality and such.
Maybe this November will not be a top ten cold month for Louisville and Lexington after all, despite one of the coldest first 15 days I can remember.
Call it what you want, but the early December Arctic intrusion from the Euro looks cold, but so far looks less cold than the one we had a couple of weeks ago.
If I say the sky is blue, you’re gonna tell me it’s green.
Depends on what the color actually is. 🙂