Monday Midday Update

Good afternoon, folks. Our Thanksgiving week is off and running on a very nice weather note, but it won’t be staying that way for much longer.  Two major storm systems are set to impact our Thanksgiving travel period, with a smaller one sandwiched in between.

Showers and storms arrive late Tuesday into Tuesday night as storm number one heads into the Great Lakes, dragging a cold front across Kentucky. This will bring some big time winds our way and we could be talking about 50mph+ gusts…

The smaller system then throws a shower or two at us on Thanksgiving, especially across the western part of the state. With dry air in place, this may have a tough time getting too far east, but it may also start out as a ping of sleet in the west.

The next system quickly follows that up , impacting our weather from Black Friday through Monday. This storm wraps up to our west then cuts due east. Temps spike ahead of this then crash behind it, leading to the potential for strong or severe thunderstorms in the middle. Winds will also be very gusty as we go from thunderstorms to light snow  in less than a day.

Listen, there’s a lot of extreme energy showing up on the weather maps and that means some big model struggles and model swings. Let me use the GFS as exhibit A. Watch how it drastically changes with the setup behind our first storm…

6z run

12z

The GFS is the GFS, but this pattern will continue to cause some pretty big swings for each model as they are incapable of handling such extreme setups as the one we are seeing.

As far as the other models are concerned. The Canadian looks more like the 6z GFS…

The ICON doesn’t go out as far as the other models, but I can’t find any issues with what it’s showing through next Monday…

 

I will update things later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.


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8 Responses to Monday Midday Update

  1. Mike S says:

    I love it. Knoxville TN still at -13 degrees going for a high of 57.
    https://www.weather.gov/mrx/
    This is an obvious error, but it has been up for several hours today.

  2. Wes says:

    I wonder if there is a snow accumulation map that Chris sometimes posts to show the possibility of snow for the first of December?

  3. Barrett says:

    It’s early….but what effect you think the weather will have on UL-UK on Saturday? Can the game be done before the weather fun starts?

  4. TennMark says:

    Storm Prediction Center has upped the severe storm potential to a Slight Risk tomorrow evening for western parts of Kentucky and Tennessee. Mainly t-storms containing damaging straight-line winds, but maybe also a few tornadoes.

    As CB touched on above, winds will be howling even outside of t-storms tomorrow. Then possibly another chance of severe t-storms towards the end of the week, then perhaps a little winter thrown in for good measure. Not boring times for sure 😉 !!

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