Good afternoon, folks. Our next big storm system is about to slam our part of the world with heavy rain, some thunder, high winds and the increasing potential of a light snowfall. That’s going to make for an interesting weekend for Thanksgiving travelers heading back home.
Rounds of heavy rain develop this evening and continue through Saturday night. Some thunder and lightning may also join the fun. A general 1″-2″ of rain will be noted for many across the state, with locally higher amounts possible. This could even lead to local high water concerns.
Here’s a check of the rain numbers from the models…
GFS
They differ a bit on placement, but the general theme is the same.
As we get into late Sunday, an upper level system dives in behind this and will bring rain and snow into the state. That will make the transition to wet snow Sunday night with snow showers continuing into Monday. Light accumulations are likely and I can see this being an Advisory type event.
Here’s the NAM snow numbers…
As we get closer, the GFS is finally seeing the light snowfall potential…
This is a setup to where it can actually snow pretty hard at times Sunday night and early Monday. Throw in winds of 30mph or greater and we can get a nice look. BTW, those winds may reach 40mph at times Saturday night.
I will have another update later this evening. I leave you with your friendly Friday radars…
Have a good one and take care.
Seems like to me this would be a pretty good decent light snowfall in my area (northeast TN) judging by the GFS.
I was a bit surprised that NWS Louisville does not even include snow in the forecast for Louisville and Lexington for Sun night/Mon morning. Perhaps the afternoon shift will update the forecast. It should be cold enough for snow even if temperatures are marginally supportive.
NWS in Louisville states in the afternoon discussion wet snow may mix in with the rain but will have little to no consequence.
Little to no consequence on the order of a coating to 1/2″ of snowfall again mainly on the ground since pavement temps will likely be too high. In addition, the possibility of wet snow makes the melting rate accelerate due to the high liquid content.
NWS Nashville’s discussion mentions that it will mainly be the higher evaluations of the Tennessee Plateau that could see a little rain/snow mix.
On a side note, a few renegade lightning strikes are popping up this evening around Paducah.