Good afternoon, everyone. Gusty winds are cranking to near 40mph at times as much colder air sweeps in from the northwest. This comes as an upper level system works in, bringing rain and some snow this evening with light snow overnight into Monday.
Light accumulations are likely and my thoughts have not changed…
That switch to snow won’t be uniform, but should happen late tonight into early Monday. This will lead to a messy morning commute as that will be the height of the wet snow. Gusty winds will add a plaster effect to the accumulating flakes.
This isn’t a lot of snow by any means with streaks of accumulations that can top an inch or two. Outside of those streaks, coatings will show up.
I would expect Winter Weather Advisories to be issued at some point today…
A quick check of the forecast models finds them singing the same tune…
Hi Res NAM
NAM
GFS
Short Range Canadian
Canadian
Temps will be seasonally cold during this event. Watch how consistent the numbers are through Tuesday…
Wind chills are pretty darn cold…
I will have another update or two later today. Until then, here are your radars to track the action in from the northwest…
Make it a good one and take care.
Milk and Bread warning
Especially in Harlan…they will kill you for 1 to 3 inches in a grocery store. I used to work in a grocery store years ago and it is ridiculous!
Why? LoL
I am trying not to be excited, but snow is always exciting for this weather geek! I am surprised at how consistent the models have been, and uniformly I might add, showing Harlan over 2 inches. It is very doubtful with how low Harlan city sets in elevation that i see this much; however, one never knows and I want complain perchance it happens:)
Still awaiting to see the 12z NAM, but parts of West Virginia may get in on quite a bit of snow, like 4-8″ by Tuesday. I like higher elevations above 3000 feet of eastern/southeast Kentucky to get 2-4″.
That’s the problem with model accumulation maps above: I agree with you that SE KY high mts get up to 4 inches. Problem is though, it shows all areas in the 2 to 4 range with places like Harlan city with elevation barely higher than most locals in Central KY, under 1500ft. Growing up, I had to learn the hard lesson that maps will always pick up the higher elevations and will often mislead the general public into thinking a big accumulation where most live in the valley as there is no distinction unless a meteorological comments and creates a specific forecast like Chris does.
Unfortunately, that’s what happens with orographic lifting…leaving the valley with not as much. I think you can get at least an inch, though
Some down shadowing yes, but more the temp gradient. Harlan city stays, on average, a solid 10 to 15 degrees warmer than Black Mt which is 3,000ft higher in elevation, and the valley is around 10 degrees colder than Pine Mt at about 3,000ft on the higher knobs. Nonetheless, I think at least an inch, maybe 2, is possible in the valley and enough to make me happy as this is still early season stuff:)
I cheer for an overachiever for Jimbo. Models look to cheat his area near Huntington on the underside and likely overstate my area but we will see within 24 hours what actually happens. I also want an overachieving event but would gladly take the 1 to 3 consistently shown in Harlan. I hope Knox Co receives more too! I hope I see something:)
Not sure the logic of Boyd, Greenup, Carter and Lawrence being
Left out of the advisory…
Blame it on Charleston WV NWS…
https://www.weather.gov/images/rlx/RLX_cwa.PNG