Watching The Early Week Setup

Good Saturday, everyone. It’s the weekend and the weather is looking pretty darn good for all those Christmas shoppers across the land. By Monday and Tuesday, things go downhill pretty quickly as an arctic front works into the region with a lot of rain, wind and the potential for some snow as temps crash.

As we get closer to the early week system, you are starting to see the models showing the wave of low pressure idea I’ve been throwing out there for the better part of the past week. Much of what happens with the evolution of this depends on a piece of energy coming from the southwest…

If you want snow in Kentucky, you want to see that get out a little ahead of the arctic cold trough coming in from the northwest. Does this trough pick up some of that or does it leave it behind to let it more more to the east. That’s the difference between snow and no snow for us.

Obviously, I’ve been on the wave train for a while now, so I think it can impact part of Kentucky with snow. Here’s a rough outline of the setup…

Where does that front get to before it slows down and lets this ripple of low pressure ride along it? That’s what I have to nail down over the weekend.

The models are getting more interested in this feature. Here’s what the late Friday evening GFS looks like…

Obviously, it’s keying on a band of snow across parts of Kentucky. Here’s the snow map from that particular run…

The Canadian Model is also showing a similar process, but is a bit farther southeast with the system and still has the arctic clipper on Wednesday…

Here’s the snow map from that particular run of the Canadian…

The European Model went from being the most progressive with this system to being the absolute slowest…

Here’s the snow map from that run of the Euro…

Don’t put faith in any one model run you see here or coming out today. Let’s watch for trends to see when and where this wave of low pressure may form along the front on Tuesday.

This busy pattern looks to continue for the foreseeable future with a big system next weekend and another one coming behind it…

I will have updates later today, but the midday update will be a little delayed by the Lexington Christmas Parade. Come out and see us. 🙂

Have a good one and take care.

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35 Responses to Watching The Early Week Setup

  1. Mike says:

    I just wonder if we get what it’s saying.

  2. Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

    It looks like the Louisville area will be sitting this one out.
    Eastern Ky. I hope you catch that wave.

  3. Terry says:

    Uhh, maybe not. A lot of times, these models go back NW and mess us over out here. Could also be like last December when Harlan was forecasted to get 20 inches of snow with WYMT setting up in downtown only to witness one of the most disappointing/embarr*a*s*s*ing forecasts of my life time resulting in less than a 1/2 inch. This isn’t a southern storm setup like last year however, so it will be a different result….one or both of our locations could see some. After the past 3 winters, I will take whatever I can get!

    • Andy Rose says:

      You can book it.

    • Bjenks says:

      Would rather have that script flipped liked back in 1994, I beleive. Louisville forecast to get rain and under a 1/2 inch and we got 16-17. Then the cold cold followed.

      • Prelude says:

        That storm in 94 made the local mets look completely foolish. I remember listening to a interview years back with former Wave3 meteorologist John Belski. In the interview he said he was scrambling to get to the station just hours before that storm hit to let the public know that storm was going to be nasty. I still to this day don’t know why the local mets never was able to forecast that storm correctly, no meteorologist at all at least in Louisville was even remotely close on getting that forecast right. Why that particular storm through the meteorologists for a loop is well beyond me.

        • Prelude says:

          I’ve been living in Louisville since 1990 and of all the snowstorms we have had between 1990 to the present none stick out more to me then that Winter Storm of 1994 hands down. The only reason why that storm was not considered a blizzard was the lack of wind. The snow was falling at a rate of 1-2 inches per hour with thunder snow I witness that at around 3am. The freezing rain started around 7pm change to snow around 11pm and by 6am the snow stopped with 14-16 inches of snow in the Louisville metro. Do the math it was snowing 2 inches per hour for seven straight hours. I’ve yet to see another storm here in Kentucky put down that much snow in seven hours.

        • Debbie says:

          Well, I honestly recall JB forecasting a “possible snowstorm???” the Monday before it hit, but as the week went on, it kept getting to be lesser & lesser of a reality. In fact, later that Sunday afternoon as I was headed out the door, the station was scrolling across the top of the Niner’s game “An inch or less is expected for the L-Ville Metro area”, which is why I didn’t buy that much at the store choosing to wait until my paycheck went in on Mon. so I could stop after work. We in Bardstown were getting nothing at 3am when I got up-a little spitting of snow here & there. When I got up at 5:30 for work, I turned on the radio and they were talking about all the semi’s stranded, etc, then I saw the lightning & thunder and was like, “Well, don’t that figure-Louisville gets hammered and WE get a dang THUNDERSTORM!” When I let our Doberman’s outside, I didn’t even NOTICE the snow until I let them back inside and they were both covered in snow!! 😀 I ran outside and jumped around in it in my jammies, then came in & called into work. “C-ya when I see ya!!” 🙂 When I relayed this same story yrs later when Belski had his blog, he swore up & down that he NEVER even hinted at the possibility of a storm and certainly not that far out?! Riiigghhht…this is one time I’m not veering away from what I know, and I know it to be correct. I’m old now, lol, but when I hear about a poss. snowstorm, I still like to keep that hope alive until it gets here (and then does nothing…hahaha!!)

        • Schroeder says:

          I remember that storm well it was on a Monday MLK day. I was living in southwest Indiana at that time and no snow was in the forecast. In the early morning hours I was awaking by thunder and look outside and the ground was covered with heavy wet snow and it was coming down at a very fast rate. We were on the western side of the storm so only 10 inches fell by noon that day and the temperature fell to -10 degrees the next morning. It warmed up quick and there was no more snow for the rest of the Winter. The Blizzard of 1978 was not forecast either until it started.

          • Prelude says:

            That storm shut the city of Louisville down for a week. I do believe if I’m not mistaken that pretty much every city snow plow Louisville had in there arsenal at that time was either stuck plowing the snow or was breaking down because of the weight of the snow. Snowmobile, ATV or some sort of lifted 4wd drive vehicle was pretty much the only way of getting around. Louisville I one former and very angry mayor named Jerry Abramson at the time and every met was on his you know what list. lol

          • Debbie says:

            I know Bardstown was shut down. I didn’t work for the whole week, but luckily they let us draw unemployment, those of us who weren’t what I like to refer to as “Union-Babies” or-well, the ones who will get there and try to work even if the place was wiped out by an EF-5(some even DURING an EF-5…lol!) I would just like for us to get another big snowfall down this way rather than watching everything being smothered & covered in a 10-mile radius of us while we’re down here skating around in the ICE STORM we always get stuck with! 🙁

            • Terry says:

              Or, living down here in SE KY always getting a bunch forecasted, sitting in a chair using binoculars and squinting trying to look up at the white ground in the high elevations! LOL:()

              • Debbie says:

                Terry, I sincerely hope that ALL of us snow lovers get some worthwhile snows this winter! I know that some people tell me, “Well, heck, Nelson Co. gets WAAAYYY more snow than us”! I have to defer, because I know that -I think late last winter?-yeah, we got about a quick 5-7″ one morning, but if it weren’t for that little deformation band setting up and holding on tight for about an hour or three, we wouldn’t have had squat. May as well say we didn’t get squat, anyway, since it all melted in an hour….

  4. Schroeder says:

    Another wait and see. Whatever happen to forecasting the weather ? It’s like we won’t know until the event is over.

    • Bjenks says:

      Well that is every event for me. Never put stock in any forecast or model until the day of. At least the seasons are turning and we have a shot of snow over the next few months. If we get some great, if not so be it. I do Like our chances this winter season as we are overdue for snow and cold.

  5. Prelude says:

    In order for this region to get a decent snow around here the stars have to align perfectly and the setup has to be spot on. To many when’s and if’s and but’s and potential’s that usually do not come through. Just a few days back the artic air look pretty brutal but as we get closer and closer the artic air gets tamer and tamer. Thankfully I’m not a fan of the snow or the cold but I do feel for the snow lovers out there, frustrating.

    • Bjenks says:

      Prelude your spot on and we are overdue for that alignment to happen.

    • Terry says:

      Yeah, the cold looks weak and brief with the heart of it staying north of the river. Really, the days so far are a little below average this month but the nights are very mild so nothing cold in my opinion…maybe cold enough for some wet snow next week but kinda unimpressed on the cold myself.

      • Prelude says:

        Terry, once again it’s a balancing act. If the artic air is too strong it drives the storm track to far south and leaves the Ohio Valley cold and dry. As I stated before the setup and ingredients for a decent snow here have got to come together perfectly. In my opinion the word “potential” gets overused in the weather world. I can play the lottery everyday and I have the potential to hit the lottery but in reality the odds of not hitting the lottery far and away outweighs. There’s always potential’s. The fact is the odd’s on the potential’s are usually not in ones favor. In the winter time snow lovers get caught up in potential’s instead of reality (tunnel vision). I guess that’s what drives them and the hope index up and gets people to follow the “might of’ or “could of” scenarios, it’s weather’s version of a good reality TV show. So weather fans stay tuned for the next set of model runs after all they run every 6 hours the potential’s will always be there.

  6. Russell says:

    WKY misses out.. .?? Hope not.

  7. Mr.Peabody says:

    Just looking at the 850 temp on the GFS you can see a trend where the cold is not pushing as far South as previous runs.Looks like the SW may become stronger as a result or may have other effects.Probably not we want to see.Tracking a SW this early in December with cold air lurking beats nothing.

  8. Prelude says:

    Potential potential potential…. if one is a snow lover I would cringe when I read or hear the word potential. I’ve learned in the winter time that potential a week or two out means odds are not in your favor for snow lovers. I played the lottery once week at work the potential is there to win but the odds are strongly against it. It’s the same with snow lol

  9. SkiWi says:

    Looking like an early Christmas present for the WV ski resorts.

    • Schroeder says:

      Eastern West Virginia mountains is where you can count on snow almost every year thanks to the energy coming down from Lake Michigan to Lake Erie. All it takes is a north to northwest flow energy rising up against the mountains. I like West Virginia because their state flower is the Rhododendron or local folks call it Mountain Rose Bay.

  10. msd says:

    The 12z gfs went kaput but the CMC went boom. Have to wait till the name gets in range to know more…

  11. Chris g in clay county says:

    Jackson nws not impressed with much with snow, according to their 7 day forcast

    • Troy says:

      Maybe not in this case, but that is generally when there is some true potential….truly the worst NWS forecast office in the US

  12. Chris g in clay county says:

    My comment has with twice, which I don’t know why it did that. Possible this junk , wore out android tablet.

  13. Bus Haynes says:

    Where I live in Southern Ohio some of the biggest snows I have seen develop in the Texas panhandle and moved northeast and rode up the west side of the Appalachia Mountains. In the 94 storm we got 2 feet of snow. We had a foot of snow on the ground before Huntington West Virginia had it’s first flake hit.

  14. Rolo says:

    This track of low could become a monster snow in South soitheast

    • Ricvice says:

      Just like mid December last year. Was on my way back from SC ,got to Ashville and a foot of snow. Got back to central Ky. Nada.Some of the models are showing insane amounts of snow in the same area.

      • Prelude says:

        I hope SE Kentucky especially Terry and company gets crushed with a surprise accumulating snow. The Canadian and the NAM like your chances I haven’t checked the Euro.

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