An Interesting Setup Ahead

Good Sunday, everyone. We are rolling through a calm weather day, but things are about to change in a hurry. An interesting setup is showing up from Monday through Wednesday and it could bring rain to accumulating snow for some. That wave of low pressure idea I’ve had looks like it will be playing out.

Clouds will thicken out there today as temps hit the 50-55 degree range for many. A few showers may show up this evening, but the real action doesn’t begin until Monday.That’s when a cold front moves in here with rain ahead of it as low pressure works into the Great Lakes. Temps on Monday may flirt with 60 degrees.

That front slows down as it crosses the state on Tuesday with cold air crashing in behind it. At the same time, a wave of low pressure develops and works along our boundary, enhancing precipitation along and, especially, behind the front. That would allow for rain to change to a mix and then snow. Where is this front as the low develops? That’s still the big question.

The trend has been for this to happen in a region that can bring a much better chance for accumulating snow across parts of Kentucky.

Let me say that the following maps and models are just that… Maps and models that can change from run to run and I assure you they will. The numbers below are from the models and NOT me. I’m telling you there’s the chance for accumulating snow Tuesday into Tuesday night. Where that happens is still well up in the air.

The NAM decided to really hit the snow potential across central and eastern Kentucky…

Here’s the snow map from that run of the NAM…

The GFS isn’t as juiced up in the north and west, but has a similar theme and is farther northwest than earlier runs…

Here’s the snow map from that run of the GFS…

The Canadian Model is also keying on a similar area…

Here’s the snow map from that run of the Euro…

The European Model went back down the progressive road compared to the last run of the model…

Here’s the snowfall map from that run of the Euro…

Again, don’t go waxing the sleds, let’s see what the Sunday trends hold.

The temp crash on Monday night is fairly prolific and with the winds, it’s going to feel even colder. Check out the numbers…

I will have updates later today. Make it a good one and take care.

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36 Responses to An Interesting Setup Ahead

  1. Bus Haynes says:

    Looking like a very wet start of the week. I guess we have to take what we get.

  2. Schroeder says:

    Bus, again a wait and see event. What puzzles me is that when meteorologist forecast storms and heavy snows out west it pans out even when it is five days out. Why can’t that happen here in the Ohio Valley ?

    • Schroeder says:

      I’ll answer my own question : It’s location location location.

    • Bus Haynes says:

      Well for one thing the States out west are right on the door step where the cold air is diving in and hooking up with the moisture. If you notice we are almost always on the warm side of a low presser when it cuts up through the great lakes. We have to have the low presser cut under us and ride up the west side of Appalachian Mountains to have the cold air pull in over us to get the snow.

    • BubbaG says:

      Seems that except for much higher elevations, the odds of accumulating snow is 10%.

  3. James Bush says:

    well i think it would be nice if we could get snow in southeast ky. and a white christmas would be nice as well,but,what would really get me excited is a good 3 footer snow fall.

  4. Terry says:

    I hope a few inches works out. I know it will want last due to how warm it will be but still pretty to look at for a day or two!

    • Schroeder says:

      Terry, you may end up with a foot of snow or none at all. With all the information made available to you, all you have is hope, and there is nothing wrong with that hoping that it snows.

  5. Schroeder says:

    I left out the east coast as far as accurate weather forecasting. If the meteorologist there say up to five days out that the Northeast is to prepare for a Nor’easter it pans out almost every time. Again, it’s location location location. They, the meteorologist use the same weather models that are used to forecast weather for our region of the country. right ?

  6. JimB says:

    Trends, trends, trends, not gonna change for central ky this winter, so get your snow enjoyment from the “prospects “ and “potentials”…but, I am pulling for you snowlovers to get at least one good one this winter,and buck the trends.

  7. Russell says:

    Come snow please to WKY… we missed out this past winter…

  8. Illinois Mike says:

    Looks like you guys in Kentucky, at least in certain parts, are going to get a lot more snow than we will in the Chicago area for Tuesday, as very little if any snow is predicted here for Monday night/Tuesday. It’s just going to be cold!

    The cold air that’s coming in for Tuesday and Wednesday certainly won’t last very long though, as highs for the Chicago area are predicted to be well in the 30s and near 40 by Friday and Saturday.

    It’ll be interesting to see if there’s any more cold outbreaks with snow chances prior to Christmas.

    • Terry says:

      It’s too dang warm for snow period almost every day anymore. It will be cold enough for about 48 hours next week then right back into the 50s next weekend down in SE KY:(

    • Schroeder says:

      I remember this well, back in the winter of 1969 we had one snowstorm after another and to the north of us it was cold and dry with below normal snowfall for the entire Winter. This year it’s the Plains and West turn to have a real Winter, we will just have to wait for Winter to return to our area and it could be next week or maybe ten years from now. It’s a ” guessing game” and I’m not going to bet on it.

  9. Melva says:

    I figure Huntington area will miss out on any actual snow, once again. But the cold weather still makes a nice, hot bowl of potato soup look pretty good!

  10. Mike S says:

    It’s still too far out, but hi res NAM still showing a decent wet snow event for southeast Ky. But will it be too wet, like liquid?

  11. Rodger in Dodger says:

    Rodger needs a serious west shift for his backyard. Maybe next time … sigh. Rodger in Dodger

  12. Schroeder says:

    I hope you get snow Terry and all other snow lovers including me. I just wish that you youngsters could get at least one Winter in your lifetime that is full of interesting snowstorms that would last at least three months instead of one to two hours and that would include a foot of snow on Christmas Day and on New Years Day. The latest forecast for my area of central Kentucky is for mostly freezing rain and ending as light snow on Tuesday night followed by a cold Wednesday of a high in the thirties and lows in the upper teens and then we are right back to what we have now. Have a quiet and bless Sunday evening everyone and try getting your mind off the weather for a change.

  13. Troy says:

    Seems the NAM has taken the “ridiculous” title from the GFS. Showing the same type setup that the GFS failed so miserably with the past few years

    • Prelude says:

      I think the NAM maybe a touch overdone. Evenif it’s not you got to take in account for snow ratio and how much melting will occur. The models handle that poorly in a marginal setup.

      • Troy says:

        Good points, however you must admit the NAM is more than a touch overdone…the American models have proven beyond doubt (time and time again) they cannot handle winter weather guidance

        • Mr.Peabody says:

          Nam is way over amped.Just one of it bias.Other models not near that amount.So I would guess an outlier.Just to early in the month for something big Sherman says.

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