Sunday Afternoon Snow Thoughts

Good afternoon, everyone. The setup for the next few days continues to look interesting as a wave of low pressure develops along a strong cold front. This is something we’ve been highlighting for a week now and I can finally get a little more specific on who has the best chance to see snow on the ground.

Here are some headlines for the next few days:

  • Rain develops tonight and takes us into Monday.
  • Temps will be mild and may approach 60 on a gusty southwest wind.
  • The cold front moves from west to east Monday night and Tuesday with crashing temps behind this.
  • A wave of low pressure develops along the front, bringing a stripe of accumulating snow from Texas to New England.
  • Which part of Kentucky gets in on this depends on where this front is when the low develops. Right now, areas of eastern and southeastern Kentucky have the best chance at picking up on accumulating snows.
  • There’s the chance for several inches of snow to fall in the southeast and this could be our first THREAT level event of the season.
  • There will be a sharp cutoff on the western side of the snow. Exactly where that is remains to be seen and a few miles difference could be the difference in no snow and a few inches of snow.
  • I expect more model changes as we get closer to this system.

Here’s my initial look at the areas with the best chance of putting snow on the ground…

Again, that’s just my initial map and I assure you my thoughts will change some as we get closer. I may even get a First Call For Snowfall map out later tonight.

As far as the models are concerned, we are still seeing some subtle changes from run to run of each model. Let’s take a little look…


GFS Snowfall Map

European Model

European Model Snowfall Map


The NAM Snowfall Map appears to be on steroids..


Canadian Snowfall Map

As you can see, the models all have the same general idea, but differ on placement and amounts. That’s typical of an event. We are getting to within 48 hours, we should see the models lock in.

I will have another update later today. Until then, make it a good one and take care.

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20 Responses to Sunday Afternoon Snow Thoughts

  1. Russell says:

    Boo!! WKY misses out again!

  2. SpaceGhost says:

    Another tri-state non-event. Moving on…

  3. Ricvice says:

    Looks like Fayette will be on another of its famous “just missed by us by this much” as agent 86 would say. But.. a little wiggle this way or that way would make all tty ur difference

    • Bus Haynes says:

      The low on that map looks to far north for much snow in the tristate. But maybe most of the snow is coming with the front it’s self. I’d like to see the low much farther south. That’s just me.

    • TennMark says:

      The curse of Maxwell Smart… 😉

  4. nasdaq says:

    Did Chris tweet out the blog post today? He always does and I don’t see it on his Twitter, just wondering if Twitter is broken.

  5. Terry says:

    It will be a quick hit and quick melt but I will gladly take a few inches if possible. Again, we can about only go up from last winter. I have 1 inch for November and 1/4 inch so far for December.

    • Jimbo says:

      My local NWS has no snow forecasted. There is plenty of rain and mild to warm temps anywhere from 40’s to 60’s for the next week. It is currently 60 at my place today. Looks more like last year everyday.

      • TennMark says:

        Just yesterday, the FD (Forecast Discussion) for NWS Nashville TN was saying that this would be a non-event winter wise and better luck next time snow lovers 🙂 .

        Now they are backing off that somewhat. A little more snow potential (especially for the Plateau) but still a lot of variables this early thus low confidence. But a little better than before.

      • Terry says:

        I hope we both can get a few inches. I am not considering anything major right now, even though the models have me at around 3 to 6 inches, on average. LOL

  6. Jim B says:

    Rain for central…. trends, trends, trends

  7. Farmer 43 says:

    All the models a few days ago pointed to longer lasting cold for December now it’s one day with cold temperatures and Then in the 40s or 50s it sure appears to be shaping up like last winter so far I’m sorry but 30s in December is not headline worthy we don’t live in Florida

  8. nasdaq says:

    Model runs today have me hyped up for the biggest snow in Whitley in years, although we all know how this usually turns out.

    • Terry says:

      I hope for a widespread few inches at least for all of us in the SE. Temp wise, it looks AVERAGE coming up after about 48 hours of chilly but not real arctic cold, hence it will be white for a short time only, if we can even cash in that is!

  9. Mike S says:

    If CB does a first call amount, it’ll be between a coating to 4″, primarily southeast Ky with higher elevations seeing the highest amounts. Anything more than that, he’s fallen for the hype bug from the models.

  10. Rolo says:

    Winter storm warnings be up by this time tomm

  11. Bjenks says:

    All this has to do is strengthen a little to pull it more North. That would put many Ky counties in the sweet spot right along the Parkways. Like that we even are talking snow this early in the season.

  12. Andy Rose says:

    I agree with the forecast for my area from the NWS. It seems most realistic

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