Rain To A Winter Weather Event

Good Monday, everybody. It’s full steam ahead toward a winter weather event moving in for Tuesday and Tuesday night. This will likely bring snow and sleet to a good portion of the region and the potential is there for several inches for some. That said, I’m still trying to figure out exactly where to draw the lines, so no WST just yet. That may change with the next update. 🙂

We have rain pushing across the state today as mild temps continue. There’s even the chance for a little bit of thunder.

As far as the Tuesday-Tuesday night winter weather is concerned, let’s keep this map rolling…

Before we take a look at the latest models,here are a few thoughts:

  • Temps crash from west to east tonight into early Tuesday.
  • Rain will change to a wintry mix of sleet and snow then to snow as the cold moves in and a weak wave develops along the boundary.
  • Exactly where this happens still has some wiggle room, but much of the precipitation is into central and eastern Kentucky when this takes place.
  • Snowfall numbers of a few to several inches will be possible, especially in the southeast.
  • Sleet may also show up and if it does, it will cut into the snowfall numbers.
  • Whatever happens with this, it’s going to have a big time cutoff line on the western side of it all.
  • A First Call For Snowfall map comes later today.

As far as the models are concerned, we didn’t see much change in the respective models compared to what they were showing earlier.

The GFS continues to show a more widespread event…

GFS Snow Map

The Euro continues to be less widespread and less impressed…

Euro Snow Map

I won’t lie, the Euro was the only thing that kept me from pulling the trigger with this update. I have to give it some respect, but it’s still a nice snow in the southeast.

The Canadian Model is a little more like the GFS…  Canadian Snow Map

The Short Range Canadian continues to hit this harder than most of the models…

Short Range Canadian Snow Map

Here’s the sleet map from that same run

The NAM is in a similar boat…

NAM Snow Map

NAM Sleet Map

I will have updates later today. Until then, here are your Monday rain tracking toys to keep you company…

toys…

Make it a good one and take care.


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36 Responses to Rain To A Winter Weather Event

  1. Terry says:

    I am not going to lie, I am excited with the consistency on the models for SE KY but still discouraging to not at least have a Special Weather Statement this far out as we are approaching 36 hours away soon. I am not a huge NWS fan, but the local offices just aren’t buying into the snow as we had at least a Special Weather Statement last week for that almost non-event before it went straight to an over exaggerated Winter Storm Warning.

    Then again, maybe I should be excited that NWS isn’t buying into it:)

    • Cold-Rain says:

      After Lucy pulled the mother of all Lucy’s last winter from that one event that still leaves a sting I’m not biting..

  2. Marsha says:

    Well I just want to know what happen to all the cold air that was supposed to come in I watch watt tonight at 11 it sure was not looking that cold Lordy weather is such a pain

    • Schroeder says:

      The southeast ridge is probably the reason the Arctic air is not coming south into the Ohio Valley. This is what happened last year. I don’t want that cold dry air anyway with the high heating bills. Doesn’t need to be that cold to have a decent snowstorm anyway.

  3. Bus Haynes says:

    Getting some pretty good rain showers at the moment here in Southern Ohio. Going to be a wet day.

  4. Schroeder says:

    According to the radar all the rain has past us by here in Taylor county. I hope all of eastern and southeastern Kentucky get the predicted snow. Here in western and central Kentucky we are more or less left out due to the dry air aloft. Our big snows here and in western Kentucky have to come from a well defined low pressure system when a surface low and an upper level cold low come together over the southern plains or the Texas Pan Handel and then move slowly through the Tennessee valley or the low tracts through eastern Kentucky. For my area and west, snow from the northwest from a cold front produces very little in the way accumulating snow.

    • Terry says:

      To make a point for how mild it has been so far, someone threw a bunch of Spanish Moss up in a tree along the Cumberland River weeks ago back in November. I went walking yesterday and the moss was still healthy and green. LOL.

      My Needle Palm and Trachycarpus Fortunei palm has only been covered up 7 days so far this early winter season; both are hardy palms but still obviously pushing to survive in KY as they are hardy in the Carolinas and Deep South. Last year, I only covered the palms about 12 days. The Needle is going on 3 years old and is the hardest of palms, however, looks great:)

      • Schroeder says:

        If I lived in Harlan Terry I would plant Magnolia trees, Hollies, Azaleas, and have a large collection of Rhododendrons. I did this in southern Indiana and had one of the most beautiful gardens in that area and the climate there was hard to work with. When we sold my house and property there, my nursery was completely destroyed by the new owners. I have not been back in Indiana and don’t plan on ever setting foot again in that state. Cost of living is just too high for a fixed income.

    • Bus Haynes says:

      This is true. You also have to have the cold air in place when the low presser works through. This rain system were are having today has the cold air moving in from behind. Sometimes you can get pretty good snows when the cold air catches up. But most of the time in these cases it’s just snow flurries and snow showers.

  5. Jim B says:

    Like I said, trends say go with Euro, cold December rain for central

    • Terry says:

      If those numbers were to actually reflect “lower elevations,” I would be fine with the EURO as this would still be my largest snow in three years:)

  6. Matt says:

    Go Euro..

  7. Winterlover says:

    Looks like in my back yard here in western ky is going to be left out on this one. I hope you people in a South East gets what is calling for. Have a good day!!

  8. Mr.Peabody says:

    RGEM is interesting.Has a secondary low in South Carolina that ups the totals.Is it right??
    https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem&region=seus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2019120906&fh=54

  9. Russell says:

    Well looks like we can expect a replay of last winter….no snow in WKY and where did all the artic air for Dec go?

  10. Mike S says:

    Like I said before, with these thermal profiles, cold air rushing in with drier air, overrunning moisture with the wave and it’s warmer air cutting in aloft, it’s going to make for a more problematic forecast than just rain and snow. I do believe some here will be disappointed by the exaggerated snow amounts from these models, I don’t care how consistent they have been.

    • Mr.Peabody says:

      Euro is pretty much now showing a non event.Should know which model is correct by today.Sherman says don’t bet against the Euro.Would have to agree.

  11. Drew says:

    This is a bust event. Mark it down.

    • JimB says:

      Not gonna be cold enough, quick enough, for long enough in Central folks…. trends, trends, trends….we could just copy and paste the forecast and discussions from each of the last few winters

      • Jimbo says:

        I totally agree with you. Another telling sign that is pointing to another nonexistent Winter. The Lake Effect snow machine has been broken for years now and it doesn’t look like it is gonna be repaired any time soon. It also appears now that the big arctic blast this week is a brief one, only about about 24 to 36 hours before the warm air is back.

  12. Rolo says:

    Going getva thumper

  13. Mike S says:

    The NAM run has dialed back the snow totals a bit. Perhaps it is ‘seeing’ the mix signal now.

  14. Rodger in Dodger says:

    Looking like no snow in Rodger’s backyard. Maybe next week – or not. This is Rodger in Dodger.

  15. Terry says:

    Not even a Special Weather Statement yet and almost 30 hours out now. Though nothing like 1994, it would be interesting to get a decent hit with local NWS calling for an inch or less. Still cuts down the excitement with NWS not biting the model runs:(

    • Andy Rose says:

      If you are expecting more than in inch in the lower elevations your going to be disappointed.

    • Troy says:

      Andy is right Terry, it’s just not going to happen. I’m sorry….I think most of us here would love to see a decent snowfall yet all of us here have been continually burned by models which cant predict any better than we can. Just being realistic here.

  16. Jim B says:

    Euro is for the money folks, other models are for show

    • Prelude says:

      Why? Because the Euro is showing the least amount of snow? So humor me here hypothetically. If the GFS was showing the least amount of snow and the Euro was showing more snow the GFS would be money and not the Euro?

      • Jimbo says:

        I am justing guessing, but maybe because the Euro is usually the most accurate. Also if the Euro showed a big snow hit the GFS probably would too. And last, the pattern we are stuck in strongly suggests we get very little if any snow.

  17. Prelude says:

    The winds in the Louisville Metro are getting very close to wind advisory criteria.

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