Tuesday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. Cold temps continue to take control of the pattern and is catching the precipitation in the southeast, switching it over to snow. This will increase into the evening as a wave of low pressure works along the front.

As expected, it’s the southeastern areas of the state dealing with the best accumulating snow potential through tonight. I will have all your tracking toys in a bit.

The next system to track is mainly a rain maker as it arrives Thursday night and Friday, but it may begin as a period of freezing rain…

The pattern is super active through Christmas, giving us plenty of opportunities at winter weather..

GFS

I leave you with your Tuesday tracking tools…

 

Richmond

Winchester

Mountain Parkway near Slade

Pine Mountain

Morehead

Mt. Vernon

Corbin

WYMT-TV Hazard

WYMT – Stone Crest Golf Course Prestonsburg

I will have another update this evening, so check back. Have a good one and take care.


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30 Responses to Tuesday Afternoon Update

  1. SkiWi says:

    Plenty of opportunities for back side flurries.

  2. Jeff Irvin says:

    It doesn’t look like any of the models handled this system very well!

    • Which Way is the Wind Blowing says:

      NAM & Euro did a decent job.

      • Tom says:

        I agree. Predicting two days in advance the strength of a low running along a front is a guess…and sometimes ONE of the guesses turns out right. Chris was right in guessing there would be a low materialize…but the magnitude is always guesswork.

  3. Debbie says:

    Model-watching is entertainment only for me, but gosh, I sure don’t like that run of the Dec 22 GFS…..On the same date in ’04, we here in Bardstown had a bad ice storm, power came back on Christmas morning in time for me to cook the dinner (sucked being w/o cable for 11 days, tho!) whilst everyone from about 8 miles on north of me had about a foot or so of snow……..

    • Terry says:

      Starting to look like a big flood concern in SE KY before the end of December. From super wet until July 1st, then super dry until October 1st, now back to super wet. I am starting to see signs of ground saturation with over 5 inches of rain since the last week of November. An inch of rain this morning and looks like several inches of rain over the next 10 plus days down my way.

      • Debbie says:

        I truly hope not, Terry! We had soooo much rain both last year and this summer here in Bardstown(well, of course, in addition to the hot temps. People are going to say, “Wait…WHAAAT??”, but we got dumped on a bunch, at least in MY YARD!) I was truly surprised that my garden took off like it did. We just moved in Oct. and even though we’re on top of a ridge, it’s already seeming like our backyard is going to resemble a big pond?!

        • Terry says:

          It is pretty! No accumulation yet but huge flakes and starting to really come down:)

          Wish you could see it, and I hope we all snow lovers get something real later on.

  4. Jimbo says:

    Looks like the precip. out ran the cold air in the tri-state. Never expected anything anyway. Just a continuation of the 3+ year pattern. Can anyone remember the last time a storm formed in the Gulf and moved over to the Virginia coast? Giving us a decent snow. That’s pretty much the only way we can get anything and it’s rare anymore.

    • Terry says:

      Still too warm in Harlan. I have a few flakes mixing in but most of the precip is done and still int the upper 30s. I never bought into the model hype for significant snow but was hoping for an inch. Unless I get enough snow showers after dark, I will get 0 from this stinker….LOL

    • Terry says:

      Is it trying to snow now. If I get any, it will be with this heavy precip band coming up out of TN! I will let you know later.

  5. Illinois Mike says:

    I noticed that there aren’t even any Winter Weather Advisories for any part of Kentucky for today or tonight, so yeah, the computer models were not accurate at all in their snow accumulation predictions.

    It’s cold here in the Chicago area, in the low 20s with a wind chill near 10, but not as cold as the computer models predicted last week at this time. It’s tough to get the extreme cold when there’s a bare ground in early December.

    This current cold snap won’t have much staying power at all, as temps are predicted to be in the 40s here Thursday and Friday, with a mix of light rain and snow Saturday before turning modestly colder afterwards.

    It’ll be interesting to follow the active setup that’s predicted for the next couple of weeks; hopefully there will be enough cold air for some good snows. I’m not getting my hopes up too high, as all the cold air we had the first 20 days of November hasn’t really shown up in December. Temps for the month here are averaging over 4 degrees per day above normal.

    • BubbaG says:

      That’s cause it was model fluff. LOL, the last “event” had advisories and most of the areas got nothing on the ground. This never looked legit beyond higher elevations unless cherry picking models.

  6. mike says:

    Been “radar only” snowing in my part of Richmond nearly all day.

  7. Bobt says:

    Best thing to do in Kentucky for winter weather is now cast it. Look out the window and saw what it’s doing. For some odd reasons models just can’t get it right the majority of the time.

  8. Chris g in clay county says:

    Some sort of thing has hijacked this page, wants me to install google play protect.

  9. Terry says:

    Looks a lot like November when a last minute surge of heavy wet snow fell in Harlan and Bell with a heavy stream of moisture trying to come up from TN. Fingers crossed Troy, we may be the only few counties in KY to get a dab this evening, probably Letcher and Pike will too.

  10. Mark says:

    It’s been snowing over central KY all day, but just not reaching the ground. The cold, dry air undercutting the moisture is just evaporating the snow as it falls from the mid-level cloud deck. I guess the GFS doesn’t take into account virga / evaporating precipitation, otherwise it’s snowfall map may not have been too far off. Still, the GFS has proven itself once again to be an outlier compared to the other models. But even the NAM was forecasting unrealistic snowfall amounts just two days ago. I think a good rule of thumb with winter weather is to take the snow / ice amounts forecasted by the models and cut them in half (or more). The majority of the time this will yield an accurate forecast (with the occasional good bust where it actually snows more than even the models forecast).

    • Terry says:

      THIS! I agree with for sure. Models, especially in East KY, struggle with elevation and show a lot which most never see but it does verify quite often on Pine and Black Mt.

  11. Ricvice says:

    Nothing yet in Fayette county but the radar would suggest otherwise. But as long as as the dewpoint is so low (at 13 degrees ) I wont look forward for anything until it reaches 20F Dewpoint. If the moisture is still there that is

  12. Jared from Letcher County says:

    Just picked up a half inch of snow in 30 minutes. Absolutely huge snowflakes falling now.

  13. Terry says:

    I have a 1/2 inch now and really pouring it down:)

    I took my son and daughter out for a quick snowball fight:)
    Some decent moisture still coming out of mid TN later may up me over an inch. Fingers crossed!

    • Schroeder says:

      I tried telling you last night Terry you were going to get a snow out of this storm, but no one takes my weather forecasting seriously. This morning I got three sleet pellets on my green metal roof. Snowfall total for my backyard so far this Fall / Winter or whatever you want to call it sets at two inches. Glad you are out playing in the snow with your family. This is what Winter really is about. Have fun !

      • Terry says:

        It should make it to an inch down at my house and probably around 3 up high. I am happy! Not the model amounts of course, except the Euro. EURO looks good for this.

      • Prelude says:

        Schroeder, smh I’ll give you this you make me chuckle at times not very often. “ No one takes my forecasting seriously” didn’t know you were a certified meteorologist?

        • Debbie says:

          Schroeder is like many of us here….the proverbial “armchair met”. You can’t argue with that, and at least he isn’t like some that come here and spout off (pretty much exactly to the word…)what was in another wx blog they’d just read before they repeated it here.
          Felt good to rid my mind and cleanse my soul on that lingering thought of the past couple of years! 🙂

    • Jimbo says:

      Surprisingly picked up a dusting to .5 inch in my area. Making a beautiful Christmas card scene for one night. I hope you pick up more tonight Terry. This is the first pre-Christmas December snow accumulation for me in recent memory.

      • Terry says:

        I know the pattern isn’t yet what we want yet, but we are off to a better start to the season than last year. Maybe we at least reach average by March….only takes one good storm or a few ankle biters in our region to get there:)

  14. Mike says:

    IN my part of Richmond, when I last measured we were up to 0 inches total. That’s from 0 from my last measure. But your results could be different.

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