Good Sunday, everyone. We continue to watch our Ohio Valley winter storm slowly get organized as it rolls into the region later today. For Kentucky, this brings a swath of winter weather, heavy rain and possible flooding, then a little more winter weather.
Here’s a breakdown of how this looks to play out:
- Much of the daylight hours are dry across the state as clouds quickly thicken.
- A sharp looking band of winter weather and snow develops and rolls eastward late this afternoon into the evening, impacting the northern half of the state.
- Later this evening, we see the moisture become more widespread with rain across the southern half of the state and the snow and winter stuff in the northern half.
- Areas of northern Kentucky will likely be dealing with a snowfall through early Monday. Right now, a swath of 1″-3″ appears possible. My map will show the area of interest in a bit.
- There’s the chance for some light accumulations as far south as the Interstate 64 corridor, but this really drops off fairly quickly from the north.
- The mixed line then presses JUST to the north of the Ohio River early Monday as low pressure works into southern and eastern Kentucky. Just a few miles farther to the south and east and it would pull that winter line south.
- Heavy rainfall is likely across areas of the rest of the state. Some folks could pick up 3″+ of rain out of this, leading to a flood and flash flood threat. Right now, that best threat may end up across the southeast.
- As the low works into West Virginia Monday night, the winter line quickly sinks back into Kentucky with light accumulating snow possible in the north. Light snows then sweep across much of central and eastern Kentucky into early Tuesday with light accumulations possible before the action ends.
Here’s my outlook for the winter stuff coming this evening into early Monday…
As we check on the models, we do find a little bit of a change going on with the NAM. The NAM breaks this up into two systems now. The first late today into Monday, with a second low being farther south and east Monday night and Tuesday, delivering a better shot of winter weather to more of the state.
Here’s the first part…
The European Model is trending in that direction…
I will have updates later today, so check back. I leave you with some early Sunday tracking tools…
Enjoy your Sunday and take care.