Sunday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. Our storm system working into the region appears to behaving well, so far. This will bring winter weather and the potential for flooding to Kentucky, Which of those you get all depend on exactly where you live.

A Winter Weather Advisory is our for areas of northern Kentucky…

This is the area I’ve been highlighting for snow and winter weather rolling in later this evening into early Monday. My thoughts haven’t changed…

I will have all your tracking tools in a bit.

My thoughts on the rest of this system from Monday through Tuesday also remain unchanged. Heavy rain sets up across parts of the region on Monday into Monday night, with a switch back to winter weather coming from northwest to southeast Monday night and Tuesday.

In terms of the heavy rain, I am concerned about flooding and flash flooding. We’ve had a lot of rain over the past month and change, our waterways are already running pretty good and there is no vegetation to soak up the water. That adds to the high water potential. Here’s the area I’m most concerned with…

The rainfall forecast from the models backs this up…

NAM

Hi Res NAM

Canadian

GFS

I’ll drop by for another update later this evening. As usual, I have you al set to track the winter action as it targets northern Kentucky…

Covington area

http://www.trimarc.org/images/milestone/CCTV_06_75_1908.jpg

http://www.trimarc.org/images/milestone/CCTV_06_471_0045.jpg

No image available.

http://www.trimarc.org/images/milestone/CCTV_06_275_0128.jpg

Florence

No image available.

Interstate 71 in Gallatin County

http://rwis.kytc.ky.gov/itscams/D06/current_I710665.jpg

Maysville

Louisville

http://www.trimarc.org/images/milestone/CCTV_05_71_0116.jpg

No image available.

No image available.

Georgetown

Frankfort

Morehead

Lexington


Make it a good one and take care.


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22 Responses to Sunday Afternoon Update

  1. Debbie says:

    Just received a video from my friend out in MO and it’s really coming down out there near the Poplar Bluff area. I’m so jealous and distraught that I’m going to Walmart in a few and blend in with the crazies there for a while. LOL! πŸ˜€

  2. BubbaG says:

    Dang, that advisory virtually hugs the border of KY. Almost to the point of not being KY. Wish instead some of this rain was in the summer during our sustained drought.

  3. Schroeder says:

    My brother who knows about how computers work, did a check on this site and found that it was hacked, but it is okay to visit Chris’s Blog and leave comments. Just don’t click on anything. I AM BACK BABY !!!!!

  4. Schroeder says:

    This is not a well defined Winter Storm. It is just a single disturbance coming in on a zonal flow. No surface low or upper level low coming together. I will be surprised if we see that much rain that is on that map. I don’t know how this Winter will turn out. I read that NOAA is forecasting a 30% chance of a weak El nino to develop around the week of Christmas. That would activate the Subtropical Jet and hopefully bring down the Polar Jet to make a real snowstorm for our state of Kentucky.

    • Ricvice says:

      Fingers crossed , some weak El-Ninos of the past have given us the snows we remember.

    • Putz says:

      Unfortunately not likely to happen, The pattern for snow here just isn’t there, And at this point i don’t see it changing much if any at all, Cold air will just not make it down here much like last year, Storm tracks are either over us or just to our west and i think that continues into Janurary, It’s just going to be a very wet winter!

  5. Russell says:

    The rain train is alive and well….

    • BubbaG says:

      Starting to get the sense we could go three years in a row for little to no significant snow. That is unless the models get out of their current stasis.

  6. Marsha says:

    Imagine that the low took the track that wasnt likely so it’s rain I can tell you what our weathers going to be and I dont have a degree RAIN RAIN RAIN

    • BubbaG says:

      1989 was the last snowy December I recall, besides a few several inchers since then. I think northern KY might have got something extra. The rain shorts out the electrical senses of my little brain.

      • Jimbo says:

        The last December with snow in my area was 2010. Since then a string of 9 years of warm/wet Decembers. I used to consider December a Winter month, not anymore. Just as I said last night. Be mostly rain if not all rain for me. Too warm here and it looks to start and end as rain.

      • TennMark says:

        Christmas 2010 was definitely white in Bowling Green KY, Nashville and much of Tennessee, northern Alabama.

        I only very vaguely remember late December 1989 as I was only five (we were in Morristown TN). But I recall my parents later saying how the below zero temperatures killed much of their ivy and bushes that had previously survived single digit (above zero) temperatures.

  7. TennMark says:

    Weather in these parts ain’t boring πŸ˜‰ .

    A few lightning strikes in southern Indiana this evening. Apparently thundersnow!

    Tomorrow could have lightning….not from snow but from t-storms in Kentucky and Indiana, perhaps isolated severe storms the further south one is. Not wide spread severe weather, just occasional damaging straight line winds and maybe a twister or two. But as Mr Bailey touched on, watch out for life threatening flooding.

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