A Flood Threat Then More Winter

Good Monday, everyone. Our Ohio Valley winter storm continues to behave pretty well for most areas, including right here in Kentucky. As we roll through the day, our focus is on the potential for flooding rains before some wraparound winter moves back in late tonight and Tuesday.

Many areas of northern Kentucky picked up a gorgeous snowfall last night, but that turns a slushy today as temps spike just above freezing, making for mainly rain. Speaking of rain, heavy amounts of rain are likely across much of Kentucky through tonight. Flooding and flash flooding will be a good possibility.

The models vary on where to put the heaviest amounts, but a general 1″-3″ rainfall is likely, with locally higher amounts. Here’s the NAM…


All of this precip is happening as a couple of low pressures work across the region through Tuesday. The temp gradient we are working with today is amazing. Check out how close the 60s and 30s get to one another this afternoon and evening before the cold wins out…

That’s crazy!

With that temp gradient, lots of precipitation can be expected. Watch how the snow line collapses back south into Kentucky overnight and into Tuesday.


Here’s the additional snowfall through Tuesday from the NAM…

The Canadian is similar…

Obviously, the stuff across much of Kentucky comes late tonight and early Tuesday. That air behind that gets even colder with many areas in the 20s for Wednesday…

I will have your normal updates later today. Until then, here are your morning weather trackers…

Covington area




No image available.



No image available.

Interstate 71 in Gallatin County



Have a good one and take care.

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29 Responses to A Flood Threat Then More Winter

  1. Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

    Snow leftovers for the majority of Ky.

  2. Terry says:

    So close to a good snowfall, especially in the northern viewing area, yet so far away. SIGH. At least the models are consistently keeping the axis of the heavy rain out of SE KY in my area, if that actually verifies. Maybe we can dust a roof tomorrow with some flurries!

    I don’t call this an Ohio Valley Winter Storm…I call this a Kentucky Snow Stinker, LOL:()

    • TennMark says:

      Terry, as a consolation you may be getting a decent lightning show just to your north. Even if you may prefer this to happen in April or July, not before Christmas!

      Besides our wonderful 🙁 heavy rain, most (not all) lightning has occurred just north of Nashville. At times, the only flashes visible were under the distant main t-storm clouds in otherwise darkness. All in all, rather picturesque looking.

      While I of course like getting up to check the weather, I’m also checking on my little girl as well 🙂 .

      • Terry says:

        Although not an ideal time of the year, the weather geek in me is still fascinated with lightning, even in winter. Unlike you and more in preference with your wife, I would prefer snowy conditions this time of the year , but I can’t deny I am still excited to watch this heavy rain, and perhaps stormy, event fold on out:)

        • Bobt says:

          It looks like the band of heavy rain is farther south than a lot of the models. Terry you had to know that instead of a surprise snow storm that the actual surprise would be heavier rain that what was forecast. Grab the umbrellas SE Kentucky is on the rain train.

          • Terry says:

            Yeah, I thought the NAM and Canadian looked a little off with the heaviest rain in northern KY. Some areas near you already have an inch plus just in the past few hours!

  3. Terry says:

    Well, the corridor of the heavy rain and training activity seems to match the GFS and is much farther south than the Canadian and NAM suggests so far this morning. Really heavy rainfall rates in far southern KY…interesting!

  4. Andy Rose says:

    Just about a quarter inch of wintery weather so far

  5. Mike S says:

    Mid month report shows most areas of Kentucky averaging between 1 and nearly 5 degrees above normal.
    You know, those Arctic fronts are very similar to just regular cold fronts anymore…I kid. I kid.

    • Terry says:

      We may finish about as warm on the month as last year, especially in SE KY. Thankfully, I got to cash in on a few inches of snow during the last super brief cool shot. Right now, I am approaching 60 with thunder and on and off heavy rain.

  6. Jared from Letcher County says:

    Just got woken up by a pretty intense thunderstorm. Was quite the light show for a while.

  7. Jim B says:

    Does any of this sound and feel familiar to anyone? Haha

  8. Schroeder says:

    0.18 inches of rainfall in my backyard. Looking at the current radar the rain train is to our south. Okay by me, as we do not need the heavy rain here in my county. NWS still has a flash flood watch out for my county. Maybe we will receive those back side snow flurries that are predicted for tomorrow morning. YIPEE !!!

    • Schroeder says:

      Up to 0.28 inches on the rainfall for my county. Heard a clap of thunder in the distance a while ago. Snowfall shown on the web cams is pathetic. I didn’t check if the flood watch is still in effect for central Kentucky or not. Can’t wait and getting real excited for the forecasted snow flurries for tomorrow. What a joke.

  9. Feederband says:

    50’s this weekend. Yay!!!! If it’s not going to snow might as well be mild.

    • Schroeder says:

      I agree, do you think it’s time to pull the plug on this Winter as far as snowstorms go ?

      • Andy Rose says:

        Its December 16th not February 16th

      • Prelude says:

        That’s a question we all should be asking you Schroeder. After all just a few days back you said right on this very blog you knew exactly what this winter is going to do, as you were having your once a week temper tantrum. So do tell… I’ll wait

        • Schroeder says:

          This weather pattern is lock in Prelude so get use to it. Don’t worry I’m sure we will have a couple of days this Spring or sooner of temperatures of 80 degrees with a light breeze and low dew points and humidity. Good motorcycle riding weather ! Yipee !!!

      • Jamie says:

        Well winter doesn’t actually start until Saturday, so I think we should give it a chance first.

      • Schroeder says:

        Everyone, sadly this awful weather pattern is not showing any signs of changing to cold and snowy for the state of Kentucky. However, I heard that St Louis, Missouri to Terre Haute, Indiana to Indianapolis, Indiana is closing in on a foot of snow. As the late Meteorologist Marcia Yockey said ” Those who got get, and those don’t won’t.”

  10. Jimbo says:

    A mirror image of last December. Is this the new normal??

  11. Andy Rose says:

    1.25 inches of KY wintry weather so far today in my back yard.

  12. BubbaG says:


    Look at that map. It is all a flat line across the country until KY and then follows the border. It would seem a joke if not legit.

    Since the term “more winter weather” for us, that apparently means more cold rain.

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