Good Thursday, everyone. Here’s hoping each of you had a wonderful Christmas. It certainly was a mild one and that mild weather will carry us into the first part of the weekend. That’s when a big change shows up as much colder air crashes in, with a more wintry pattern taking shape.
I’m also going to take a look at why you shouldn’t give up hope on a winter turnaround.
Before we get to the future, let’s look back at one of the warmest Christmas’s on record…
Toe make those numbers even more impressive, they started out deep into the 20s in several locations. Nothing like a 40 degree temp rise on Christmas Day! ๐
Temps today are back into near record range as more clouds show up. With a little better moisture creeping in, I can’t rule out isolated showers…
There’s a little better chance for a shower or two going up on Friday as our southwest flow really kicks in. This is ahead of our weekend storm system that’s set to bring big changes.
Saturday is a windy and mild day with potential record highs. Clouds will continue to thicken as some late day showers and storms try to show up, especially in the west. Those showers and storms increase Saturday night into Sunday as our front moves in from the west. This slows down, allowing for another low to develop along the boundary on Sunday. Heavy rain, a few storms, high winds and a temp crash battle it out for top billing on the weather marquee.
We still find the GFS being the most progressive with the whole setup with some snowflakes flying Monday into New Year’s Eve…
That’s a big wind maker with gusts of more than 40mph showing up…
Here’s how the Canadian sees it…
Not surprisingly, the EURO is the most wrapped up and farthest west…
This is a very active pattern taking shape as troughs dig into the country. Throw in a busy southern storm track and things may get interesting at some point.
So does December weather have any direct correlation to the rest of winter? The short answer is NO, NO and NO.
One of the most unheralded winters in Kentucky history is the winter of 1984/85. It turned into an epic winter with snow cover for nearly 50 straight days. But, that winter got off to a terrible start in December and was one of the warmest on record. Look at the daily numbers from Lexington for December 1984…
Temps were near 70 for the final week of the month and that warmth carried over into day one of the new year, but the bottom dropped out…
That extreme cold and snow continued deep into February…
That’s a run of 6 weeks without temps getting higher than 37 degrees. Snowfall was common across the state, with areas of eastern Kentucky getting more than 2 feet of snow in February alone.
I’m not saying this winter finds the same turnaround, but to say winter is over is absurd. There are many other examples of how December had zero bearing on the rest of the winter. 1989/90 is another winter with a major flip, but things went the opposite way with the coldest December on record and then warmth.
Historical perspective is sorely lacking in the weather community around here, especially with the young folks that think weather only started with the invention of social media trolling. ๐
I will have updates later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.
Nice argument CB. But you have to admit, this past decade of weather has been unmatched since records began. We can no longer look at what happened 30 years ago. This cycle we are in presently really only allows us to go back 10-15 years. What made the winters of 2010/11, 2013/14, and 2014/15 so special? Only looking at those analogs, weather maps, or whatever, can we try to rediscover what’s going on in Old Man Winter’s demented mind.
Can’t help but notice that outlook for snow chance went away, fro ma few days ago. At least the models are back to their old games ๐
Even looking at the past ten to fifteen years as far as cold or warm is a micro trend. The weather does not care about our life spans, so it is a “tad” more complex than that. Actual trends verses models- now that is more scientifically legit.
I’m too young to remember, but Nashville TN bottomed out at 17 below zero in January 1985…this remains the all time record low for the Music City. For young future meteorologists here figuring there were likely clear skies and good snow cover at the time of the -17 temperature, treat yourself to a big Christmas candy cane! ๐
Other crazy low temperatures for the Jan 1985 cold wave:
Knoxville, TN: -24 F (all time low)
Tri-Cities, TN: -21 F (all time low)
Huntsville, AL: -11 F (tied all time low)
Birmingham, AL: -6 F
Charlotte, NC: -5 F
Macon, GA: -6 F
Pensacola, FL: 5 F
Orlando, FL: 19 F
Gainesville, FL: 10 F
Jacksonville, FL: 7 F
Myrtle Beach, SC: 4 F
Remember this well…. Reagan’s second inauguration was the day of -24 in Knoxville/Morristown, TN (along with a sizable snowfall). Was the coldest temperature I’ve experienced to date.
Chicago bottomed out at 27 below zero on January 20th, 1985, which remains the all-time coldest temperature here.
Those record-low temps in the deep south on your list are amazing!
January 20, 1985 was Super Bowl XIX, 49ers beat the Dolphins.Here in southeastern Kentucky I don’t think the temperature got above 0 and we were covered in snow.
SPC at this time has a Marginal Risk for severe weather this weekend for western TN and maybe a bit of far western KY. Appears to be mainly a damaging wind threat for now. This follows the Dec 16 tornadoes in LA, MS, GA, AL, FL and TN including a couple of EF3s.
1985 was the year we went to school on Saturdays to try and make up all the days missed in January and February.
Nice post CB….I really like analog years and tracking similar patterns from time to time. With the reoccurring cycle of November coming around mid January we could be in for a real winter treat. Our winters of late have been pretty boring and we are really overdue for an extended period of cold and snowy weather here In the BG state. I guess all we can do is wait and see, nothing anyone can do about it anyhow. I hope everyone has a wonderful Christmas.
Chicago has already broken its all-time record high for December 26th, as the temperature at O’Hare reached 57 degrees shortly after midnight, breaking the previous record high for the date of 55 degrees set in 1971.
With mainly sunny skies and only a few clouds in the forecast for today, temps are predicted to reach well into the 60s, which would make it one of the warmest late December days on record here!
This a day after the high was 57 degrees (59 in the SW Chicago suburbs), making it the second-warmest Christmas ever. On my 4 1/2 mile hike through the local forest preserve yesterday, there’s still a thin layer of ice on the lakes, a testament to how cold it was for several days last week before this warm stretch started. That ice won’t last very much longer, though.
Thatโs your hope snowlovers, a winter from 35 yrs ago…. I hope it happens for you. Iโm gonna have to stick with trends, and the overall changes in climate, and I will eat crow if that doesnโt pan out. I have left little hope to none for the snowlovers….. I need to stop being so cranky haha
I am with you Jim B. It is nice Chris’ is trying to throw us Winter Lovers a crumb. I am not sure but I would think over 100 years of record keeping you could find a couple years that started warm and turned very cold. But there is probably a lot more that started warm and stayed warm. Especially in the last 25 years.
Thanks CB great obaevation of how weather can change in a heartbeat. Yes I remember that also it just comes in cycles of how mother nature brings. It’s no different than when I was kid we had boring winters back then also and again we had some rough winters also it all comes in mix bag. I will say this this decade we had our share of good snowfalls here in KY.
I am worried some plants might start to sprout before our latest warm wave ends. Especially since by the time this string of 70 degree temps ends, I will have recorded 6 in a row.
Just want to add that the -18 temperature record happened in the early afternoon, not during the night. I remember that day well as I was working outside at a horse farm.
If you were placing a bet, what would you bet on? Snow/Cold or Rain/Warm? Hang in there ski resorts.
I don’t care if it stays like this until March. People struggle to pay utility bills as it is after endless rate increases and cannot afford to make repairs when lines freeze and burst.