Good Thursday, everyone. Here’s hoping each of you had a wonderful Christmas. It certainly was a mild one and that mild weather will carry us into the first part of the weekend. That’s when a big change shows up as much colder air crashes in, with a more wintry pattern taking shape.

I’m also going to take a look at why you shouldn’t give up hope on a winter turnaround.

Before we get to the future, let’s look back at one of the warmest Christmas’s on record…

Toe make those numbers even more impressive, they started out deep into the 20s in several locations. Nothing like a 40 degree temp rise on Christmas Day! ๐Ÿ™‚

Temps today are back into near record range as more clouds show up. With a little better moisture creeping in, I can’t rule out isolated showers…

There’s a little better chance for a shower or two going up on Friday as our southwest flow really kicks in. This is ahead of our weekend storm system that’s set to bring big changes.

Saturday is a windy and mild day with potential record highs. Clouds will continue to thicken as some late day showers and storms try to show up, especially in the west. Those showers and storms increase Saturday night into Sunday as our front moves in from the west. This slows down, allowing for another low to develop along the boundary on Sunday. Heavy rain, a few storms, high winds and a temp crash battle it out for top billing on the weather marquee.

We still find the GFS being the most progressive with the whole setup with some snowflakes flying Monday into New Year’s Eve…

That’s a big wind maker with gusts of more than 40mph showing up…

Here’s how the Canadian sees it…

Not surprisingly, the EURO is the most wrapped up and farthest west…

This is a very active pattern taking shape as troughs dig into the country. Throw in a busy southern storm track and things may get interesting at some point.

So does December weather have any direct correlation to the rest of winter? The short answer is NO, NO and NO.

One of the most unheralded winters in Kentucky history is the winter of 1984/85. It turned into an epic winter with snow cover for nearly 50 straight days. But, that winter got off to a terrible start in December and was one of the warmest on record. Look at the daily numbers from Lexington for December 1984…

Temps were near 70 for the final week of the month and that warmth carried over into day one of the new year, but the bottom dropped out…

That extreme cold and snow continued deep into February…

That’s a run of 6 weeks without temps getting higher than 37 degrees. Snowfall was common across the state, with areas of eastern Kentucky getting more than 2 feet of snow in February alone.

I’m not saying this winter finds the same turnaround, but to say winter is over is absurd. There are many other examples of how December had zero bearing on the rest of the winter. 1989/90 is another winter with a major flip, but things went the opposite way with the coldest December on record and then warmth.

Historical perspective is sorely lacking in the weather community around here, especially with the young folks that think weather only started with the invention of social media trolling. ๐Ÿ™‚

I will have updates later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.