Good evening, gang. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to increase later tonight and will really kick into high gear Sunday into Sunday evening. That’s when our flood threat will really increase with a general 1″-3″ of rain for much of the state.
I’m also watching another potential high water maker for the end of the week as our pattern transitions into a winter one.
My thoughts on the rainfall numbers haven’t changed from earlier…
Pinpointing the exact location of the heaviest rainfall is a task, but that’s my best shot. Anytime you’re dealing with convection, placement issues come into play.
Flood Watches are out for many, but these do not far enough east…
The new folks at the NWS in Jackson need to understand the region better. They were way slow with the flooding issues a few weeks ago and now they aren’t being proactive in getting a watch out for their western and northern counties. There is ZERO harm in issuing a watch. None, Nada, Zilch, Zippo.
The SPC has added parts of the state in the Marginal Risk for severe storms on Sunday…
We will still watch for the rain to end quickly late Sunday night as colder, drier winds settle in. A period of light snow and snow showers looks better as we get closer to our New Year’s Eve…
We are making the transition into a a full blown winter pattern and the mild is putting up a fight, leading to this storm system and one more by Thursday and Friday. That one may bring another high water threat to the region, but check out the cold air finally overwhelming the pattern on the European…
That’s forecasting a total pattern realignment across the northern hemisphere and, especially in North America. A trough going up east of Hawaii with a ridge developing along the west coast is a great sign for winter lovers in the eastern part of the US. You will also notice the crazy cold in Alaska is being pushed southeast into Canada as ridging develops in Alaska.
Here are your Saturday evening tracking toys…
Enjoy the evening and take care.
Considering eastern KY has been much wetter than western KY this month, the lack of a flood watch in the east doesn’t make sense.
I hope the Euro’s depiction of a major trough is correct, but us winter lovers have been burned many times by the models 10 day out fantasy pattern changes that often fizzle (especially in the winter).
Where’s the snow? Usually when it’s this warm in the Winter, we pay for it by a strong cold front or something that causes wind damage, power outages and such. That was the case around 2/16/15. It was warm for over a week. It took a huge system to change the pattern. We lost power for a day and internet/phone for a week. A day after that storm, we got 5-8 inches of snow. 60 degrees one day, the next day 30., the day after that 25. It stayed cold for 2 weeks or so. I think something similar will happen. Staying this warm for so long will need something strong to break the pattern. I hope. Not going to deny it but I am a snow lover. However, that storm 5 years ago did happen. Variations of it has happened since then, depending on the season. It takes a stronger system to change the pattern already set by a strong one. When it happens, nuisances like no power happens. The longer it takes, the stronger it is, usually.
Or it just stays the same!
It looks good on paper for end of next week, but again, it’s next week. We Chris to post a version of the woman screaming …the models said it’s going to be cold and snow…The Cat says..weak away
Maybe the folks at NWS do not lose their minds over a half inch of rain. And maybe a “marginal” risk means likely zilch chance of severe. Thunder does not translate severe anymore than a few flurries in the low 40s translate into winter weather. Overreaction
Much?
Winter not anywhere in sight. I have 60’s predicted again at the end of next week.