New Year’s Day Update

Good afternoon, everyone and Happy New Year! As we leave behind the things that held us back in 2019, here’s hoping we all soar to new heights in 2020. The new year is off and running with plenty of sunshine, but it heavy rain and some winter weather are ready to return.

Our first item up for bids is a potential flood maker Thursday through early Saturday. I have zero changes to my thoughts with a general 1″-2″ of rain, with some 3″ amounts possible in the south and southeast…

With a saturated ground and already swollen waterways, it won’t take much to cause renewed high water issues. I would expect Flood Watches to be issued later today or early Thursday.

The 6z run of the Euro continues to match my thoughts…

The GFS is so disjointed with the whole setup that it continues to have a hard time focusing on the rain potential…

It is increasing the totals as we get closer, though. Knowing model biases in certain setups comes in very handy.

A Saturday low pressure looks to wrap up across our region as it lifts to the north and northeast. This is why the Euro has been showing better snow chances. Now we have the NAM trying to do the same thing…

The 6z EURO only goes through Saturday evening, but it looks even more pronounced than the overnight run…

The system coming in behind that continues to have potential for Tuesday and Wednesday or next week…

I will have the latest on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm and again on KWC this evening. Have a wonderful New Year’s Day and take care.

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12 Responses to New Year’s Day Update

  1. Bill Ayer says:

    Thank you for this and all your updates.

  2. Terry says:

    The new Canadian is in and shows over 3 inches in Bell and Harlan too for rainfall. Actually, all of the major models have my location over 3 and some over 4 inches except the GFS which is only an inch and 1/2, LOL.

  3. Rickie H says:

    Happy New Year everybody. Thank you Chris for keeping the blog going I have been a fan about as long as you’ve had it. Every one knows you as my Boyfriend here in our little area. Even my husband. Lol , that’s something my grandson got started and it stuck. I appreciate the time and energy you give to this. Prayers to all that read it. May 2020 be a good one for everyone. For those of you that may be in harms way of high waters, keep your eyes on the creeks and river, stay safe.

  4. Jimbo says:

    I’m not sold on any forecast with snow mentioned in it. Especially northwest flow systems. They have been weak to nonexistent for several years now. A good example was the last couple days. Happy New Year to all.

    • Terry says:

      Happy New Year!

      Temps are very warm but I hope the EURO works out for two rounds of wet snow. It want last long at all, but I hope you get some accumulation:)

    • Bus Haynes says:

      If you look a the Weather Channels forecast map for the whole month of January for everyone in the east except for the state of Maine. The temperatures are way above normal. If it’s true there’s going to be lots of rain In January.

  5. Terry says:

    I know. Troy and I were lucky a few weeks back but you all missed most of that down your way. I feel like the EURO may be correct in us getting some wet snow but what, if any accumulation will be a flash melt for both events, way too warm! I still didn’t reach 32 last night. I made it down to 35. Been over a week since last subfreezing night. Even the gra*s*s is already responding. BOO!

  6. MarkLex says:

    what kind of pattern is this anyway? Usually, it’s either cold west/warm east or vice versa, but if you look at the temperature map, the entire lower 48 is relatively warm.

  7. SkiWi says:

    When I look at these models I see rain with backside snow showers/ flurries. Hope the ski resorts can get something measurable.

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