Friday Afternoon Update

Good afternoon, everyone. It’s a windy and mild day as our potent storm system inches closer to the region. Rounds of showers and storms are targeting western Kentucky, bringing the threat for severe storms. As we head into Saturday, the threat for severe storms moves eastward across the state.

The Storm Prediction Center continues to highlight far western Kentucky for the increasing severe risk later today…

The SPC now includes much of the state in the low-end severe risk for Saturday, but this may very well be upgraded…

Damaging winds will be the main threat from a line of storms working from west to east. High winds will be a problem outside of any storms, through, so keep that in mind.

Models continue to suggest 50mph or greater gusts, with the new NAM showing lots of 60mph+ gusts…

In addition to the high wind potential, flooding and flash flooding will be possible across areas of western Kentucky. As the line of storms moves east, local flash flooding issues may develop as storms dump a quick 1″-2″ of rain.

I will have the very latest on WKYT-TV starting at 4pm then again on KWC later this evening. Until then, here are your storm tracking tools…

Current watches
Current Watches

Possible Watch Areas

Current MDs

Make it a great Friday and take care.

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18 Responses to Friday Afternoon Update

  1. Terry says:

    I suddenly found myself bored with what was supposed to be a super active pattern. We are use to the models being way off on the snow, but lately, the rain has been way over done too. The whole setup quickly moved 400 miles west from what the models were showing Monday, which is good for no widespread flooding but really makes the confidence even lower in what the models can and cannot do in the year 2020.

    • BubbaG says:

      Yep, seems something seems messed up. Mets need to go old school!

    • Prelude says:

      Absolutely! Earlier this week flooding rains 2-4,3-6 inch rainfall totals and river flooding was a given with this system according to the meteorologists. Models are absolutely terrible and really making forecasting difficult . A 3-4 day even somewhat accurate forecast with any kind of major storm system as of late has become a busted forecast.

  2. TennMark says:

    SPC’s update for Day 2 (Saturday) has pushed the severe t-storm risk more northward. As the map above now shows, the Slight Risk now extends north to about Elizabethtown KY and the Enhanced Risk north to about Jackson TN. Still mainly a damaging wind threat in our area. But as Chris Bailey just stressed, very strong gusts will happen even outside of any t-storms.

    With these winds, suppose it’s good we get prepared for power failures. At least it’s not cold so there would be less of a need to huddle around the fireplace.

  3. TennMark says:

    It’s yet again minus 39 in Fairbanks, AK. Forecast high minus 34. At least one reading in central Alaska was 48 below zero.

    Seems one would really have to look hard for a bright side with such cold. One might be that at 40/41 below, the Fahrenheit and Celsius scales overlap….thus no need to convert 😉 .

    • Illinois Mike says:

      When it’s that extremely bitterly cold, at least there’s very little, if any, wind. For the last three days, the wind at Fairbanks has been calm for the most part.

      And Fairbanks is coming off its warmest year on record!

      • TennMark says:

        Yes about the winds. Unfortunately, that can allow fog or in this case ice fog to form. Until the ice fog finally dissipates, it can trap pollutants underneath. One of my uncles was stationed at Fairbanks while in the Air Force; he said that when temperatures went from maybe minus 50 to 20 above, some people would be in t-shirts!

  4. Illinois Mike says:

    The weather is going to be anything but boring here in the Chicago Metro Area… 3 to 4 inches of heavy rain from late this afternoon through Saturday morning, followed by a brief lull, then freezing rain/sleet from late morning through Saturday afternoon changing to all snow by evening!

    The heaviest snow will be NW of Chicago (where there are Winter Storm Warnings), but here in the SW suburbs we are expecting 2-3 inches of snow along with 1/10th to 2/10ths of an inch of sleet/freezing rain (to go along with the over 3 inches of rain that we’re going to get later today/tonight).

    • TennMark says:

      Many posters here are mainly interested only in snow. They show up in large numbers around November and then flee the blog almost before the last flake of the season hits the ground. Some of them may think this weather is boring.

      I find this current pattern very interesting, and not solely because I’m more of a warm weather fan. I actually like tracking snow storms, if not-so-much directly experiencing them. But severe thunderstorms also grab my attention.

      The early 2012 pattern was also very warm, also very interesting although also with the devastating tornadoes including West Liberty KY. Many differences, though; for example early 2012 had a strong La Nina, while currently we are in a weak El Nino.

      • Terry says:

        I like all weather but the comment about being bored on this weather setup was not about lack of snow but how the models shifted several hundred mile west and a big change in the setup now. Basically, a very low severe threat in Harlan and only a couple hours of precip when it once looked like a half foot of rain of and several days of active weather!

        • TennMark says:

          Understood! As it is, you post on this blog all year round. So do I, although it’s true that the mid summer to early fall period can have me looking elsewhere in the country/world for weather with more exciting dynamics such as the southwestern US summer monsoon season and hurricane season.

        • Mike S says:

          Even the models can only ‘guess’ until storm system comes over land and allow for better, more accurate sampling.
          Climatologically, it’s supposed to be cold here. I’m sure the initialization process of these models like 10 days out cannot begin to understand why temperatures are so mild here at the present, plus lack of snow pack, teleconnections like AO and NAO. Just too much room for error that far out.

      • BubbaG says:

        Yep, if CB was paid based on posts, this winter would be very income challenged.

        There really hasn’t been any of the usual model snow storms that fizzle for the area. That said, the models for significant snow have been grade F bad, so no harm no foul.

        • Bobt says:

          True. In the past we would have one week out snow at least five or six times a winter. Now the models don’t even tease us with it. We have went from snow misses to rain misses..

          • BubbaG says:

            Hoping this one misses. Looks nowhere as bad as was expected. That (if so) is a great model miss.

            True that makes snow outlooks even more dubious.

  5. c-BIV says:

    This is the 3rd straight winter of almost non-existent winter weather going on.
    You can’t blame people for being “bored” and or just not interested in the blog.
    Tracking snow is fun! Tracking rain is very boring….thunderstorms are interesting.
    This is January. It’s supposed to be our time to shine for the next 2 months.
    Unfortunately, Mother Nature doesn’t care what we want.

    • Terry says:

      Yeah, on top of boredom, I know I am getting cranky too. And, thanks to Prelude, I am really craving snickers candy bars 🙂

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