Active Setup With Cold Lurking

Good Tuesday, everyone. We have a weak system bringing rain and a few rumbles of thunder to the region today. This kicks off another super-active period with Old Man Winter actually showing signs of waking up. By the weekend, we are likely beginning a full-blown winter pattern.

As always, let’s start with today and roll forward. Showers and a few thunderstorms spread in from the southwest, with the greatest impact across areas of southeastern Kentucky. Still, a few showers should get north of Interstate 64. Here are your radars for the day…

Another system works into the region on Wednesday, bringing gusty showers our way. Temps behind this will chill to seasonal levels.

The next storm system then sweeps in Friday into Saturday. Overrunning moisture on Friday may get in quick enough to be in snow or frozen form. That would then go over to rain as temps spike then crash with some flakes to end. This is something the GFS is showing…

The Canadian doesn’t have much winter on the front end, but has more on the back end…

The Euro is doing Euro things and being too wrapped up and too far north…

This unleashes a much colder pattern behind that storm, with colder shots showing up through the rest of the month.

These changes are also showing up strongly on the European Ensembles…

That’s actually a mega trough that eventually gets established as evidenced by the coldest anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere showing up around here…

The fact it’s the European Ensembles showing that should get your attention!

I will have updates later today, so check back. Make it a good one and take care.


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27 Responses to Active Setup With Cold Lurking

  1. Ken Miller says:

    “The fact it’s the European Ensembles showing that should get your attention!” Why?

    • TeacherMomof2 says:

      “That’s actually a mega trough that eventually gets established as evidenced by the coldest anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere showing up around here…”
      Simply put, cold area settling in. It may be short lived but CB called for a back-loaded winter and it’s not unusual for February to be our snowy month. People on here were throwing in the towel on Winter before it even began.

      • Bobt says:

        Bailey is forecasting a typical first half of December temperatures with arctic cold and snow threats late in the month and into the first half of January.

        “I expect quite a bit of back and forth with the temperatures this winter, and those could be rather extreme. Overall, I think the arctic cold blasts will outduel the warm shots we get and keep the winter average slightly below normal,” Bailey said.

        It may very well snow in February, but no one was predicting that it would stay spring like temps through the first seven weeks of meteorological winter.

      • Terry says:

        Uhh, I think you are thinking of last year’s forecast. Chris was leaning towards an early spring with some back and forth cold in January/February but December was to be the worst of winter this season on his podcast. Obviously, it didn’t work out, but maybe we end up with some back loaded winter afterall….we will see if the cold lasts into February and we end up with February being the snowiest of the three months.

  2. Schroeder says:

    I quit looking at the Weather in the Ohio Valley and focusing on the bitter cold temperatures in the Arctic and the areas that are actually having Winter.

  3. Jim B says:

    Coming weeks it looks to change to days of bitter cold, all the way down to possibly the low 30s, haha…. precip? None, except your occasional cold rain, and possible flurry at night. This will now be considered an anomaly…. amazing really, to see the changes and weather trends that are the new norm.

    • Bjenks says:

      Jim B can’t wait till Mother Nature and climatology proves you wrong. Weather runs in cycles and we are just in one of those that seems to make it warmer than normal around here in the winter. If this is the new norm for winter wouldn’t our summers be scorching as well.

      • winterlover says:

        Thank you Bjenks. I think some people that makes comment like haven’t live long enough know how the mother nature works. ‘

        • Schroeder says:

          I will have to agree with all of the above. It is weather cycles and we are in one that has a lot of staying power, but I go back and forth on this and it is driving me nuts trying to figure out what is causing the Arctic so frigid and the Atlantic Ocean waters to be so warm. The Arctic air ma*s*s that is forecast to come early next week is just another “glancing blow ” for our area, but maybe ( 10%) chance of starting a changing weather pattern for the rest of the winter. Will there be any big time snowstorms in February or March in the Ohio Valley ? or will it be dry when it is cold enough in the upper levels of the atmosphere to support a significant snow event over all of Kentucky and southern Indiana ? NOAA is forecasting that this weather pattern we are currently in (warm and wet) will hold through next Winter 2020-2021. I take this with a huge grain of salt. They always say “equal chances.” However they nailed the Winters of 1976-1978. My question is how come the weather is more difficult to forecast these days ?

          • Troy says:

            They nailed it in the winters of 76-78 because they used their own knowledge and research of weather anomalies by different means rather than rely on software models, all of which is quite frankly garbage at forecasting winter weather

      • Troy says:

        I agree about cycles Bjenks, however, here in the southern counties at least…..the summers for the past few years have indeed been scorching. When I was growing up, 85 was considered a hot day as opposed to the numerous 90+ degree days every summer that we have now.

        • Jim B says:

          I’m 50 yrs old people…cycles? Interesting perspective, also incorrect perspective

          • Bjenks says:

            1969….Great Year.
            Weather records have only been recorded for 137 years. Cycles I speak of happen over 1000’s of years. Ice ages have come and gone and will come again, We live on an ever changing planet. I am sure the avg temp has spiked high, over a 10 year period, many other times in earths existence, but you and I have only witnessed 50 years of it and records have only been in the books for another 87.

        • Jimbo says:

          The Summers in my area have been very hot for a while now. Last Summer saw 48 days of 90 or higher, normal is 20. Temps near 100 running into October the last few years. And what is really impressive is 2018 had record rain, 2019 was very wet too and still managed all those 90’s.

      • Prelude says:

        That simply depends on one’s version of scorching.(Try using that logic to our friends in Australia they are scorching with heat in the land down under) Australia rewriting the summer record book with all time heat. If you look at the past recent years the summers are getting rather toasty here Nationwide to say the very least. Numerous summer heat records that have been around since weather data was first recorded have broken with ease within the past 10 years.

  4. Bjenks says:

    -40 Winneston, ND and 84 Orlando, Fl. over 120 degree difference….
    Hopefully the cold air, that is being advertised, has some staying power, to the cold, and the precipitation train reigns on. We have’t seen sustained blocking in a long while and are way over due for cold and snow. Should be very interesting to track.

    Dense fog tonight into tomorrow morning so be careful out there.

  5. BubbaG says:

    In summary, when the cold air moves in, most of the moisture moves out.

  6. Mike S says:

    At Lexington, using a random cold morning for January, say 15 degrees, the warmest decade ever (2010-2019) even had a minimum of 3 days (2012, 2017) to as many as 12 in 2018, 13 in 2010, and 16 days in 2014 when a low temperature of <= 15 degrees occurred.
    So far this month, a temperature less than 30 has yet to be recorded.

  7. Russell says:

    Ill believe it when it happens.

  8. Bus haynes says:

    If its going to snow it better hurry and get here.
    The Sun bears down pretty good by the middle of February.

  9. Jim B says:

    Wow…that’s what it takes to get this blog boomin? Even a hint about anything to do with climate change?

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