High Winds Possible Saturday

Good evening, everyone. We have another big wind maker rolling into the region later tonight and Saturday as another potent system works in. The winds will likely cause issues before ushering in a blast of arctic cold through early next week.

For the entire week, we have been focusing on the potential for big winds coming in tonight into Saturday and nothing has changed with that thought. As a matter of fact, the models are showing higher winds as we get closer. Check out the 60mph+ gusts on a few models…

Hi Res NAM

EURO

The lowest wind gusts from the models is from the GFS, but even it shows widespread 50mph gusts…

Given the model forecasts for gusts, one would assume a Wind Advisory would be a slam dunk across Kentucky. As of this writing, not a single county in Kentucky is under a Wind Advisory, even though the forecast gusts easily meet the NWS’s own criteria…

If the NAM and EURO verify, the High Wind Warning would verify. Regardless, there isn’t a single piece of model data that suggests a Wind Advisory shouldn’t be in effect. I asked the forecasters on duty at the NWS in Louisville as to why and they said they collaborated with all surrounding NWS offices and no one had enough confidence to issue one.

The group think tank mentality that has invaded the entire weather community of late is something to behold.

I digress. 🙂

Cold air comes in behind this departing system as arctic winds blow into early next week. Wind chills are going to be way down…

Enjoy your evening and take care.


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9 Responses to High Winds Possible Saturday

  1. Leeannie says:

    Aaaand that is why I read your forecasts!

  2. Prelude says:

    There is some concern for localized gusts of 40-50
    mph on Saturday, but confidence in this is not high enough for a
    Wind Advisory at this time. The main limiting factor is a steep
    inversion above 950 mb and poor low-level lapse rates (even below
    the inversion). Mixing is expected to be quite poor given the
    abundance of cloud cover and precip. Still, the magnitude of the low
    level wind fields is concerning. Will of course monitor the
    potential for stronger sfc gusts, but the consensus reached with
    surrounding WFOs is to hold off on a headline.

    • Prelude says:

      That’s the NWS discussion, go figure….

      • Terry says:

        On the same lines of flood watches….never hurts to be err the side of caution, even if a low risk of a widespread event but go figure…warnings before watches is quite common over the last several years.

        By the way, I finally bought a snickers today 🙂

  3. Illinois Mike says:

    Moderate snow is falling across all of the Chicago Metro area this evening, with temps in the upper 20s, and will accumulate several inches before changing to sleet and freezing rain, and then rain later on.

    It’s our biggest snow event of the season, which isn’t saying much. It’ll be interesting to see how much melts when the temps go above freezing and the precip changes to rain.

    The cold here is going to be pretty extreme, as they’re forecasting wind chills as low as 20 below zero by Sunday morning, and temps may not get above the single digits for highs.

    • Terry says:

      Your highs are going to be 10 degrees colder than my lows here. Harlan is forecasted for upper 10s two nights and low 30s for highs. Sad, but this is the coldest since mid November and will only be the 4th and 5th lows below 20 this entire season so far!

      My yard is green and almost needs a mow, LOL

      • Illinois Mike says:

        Yeah Terry, the cold that’s coming will be the coldest it’s been here since mid-November also.

        We’ve only had two nights of lows below ten degrees so far, and those were both in November! Only one day of highs in the teens, also in November.

      • Jimbo says:

        The cold will brief and dry as expected. I have a high of 60 predicted for next Friday.

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