Breaking Down Another Ugly System

Good Thursday, friends and neighbors! Our slow-moving storm system is beginning to impact the weather across Kentucky today. This system looks to bring rain before we can get in on the potential for winter weather by Saturday and early Sunday.

The first round of precipitation works into western and southern parts of the state later today and is in the form of rain. Here is your regional radar to track the action…

Here’s a breakdown of how things may play out:

  • Rain increases tonight and carries us into Friday. Rain may be heavy at times across the central and east.
  • Temps will spike to near 50 across the east with the west seeing temps crashing into the 30s.
  • Our upper level low spins on top of us through Saturday as a surface low takes control to our east. This allows for colder air to move in and this should be cold enough for snow showers and periods of light snow.
  • Temps are marginal for accumulations, but some slushy sticking snows will be possible into early Sunday.

The NAM continues to show this scenario well through 7am Sunday…

The Hi Res NAM goes through 7AM Saturday, but is showing a similar look…

Here’s the snow map from the NAM through 7am Sunday…

Here’s the Canadian…

The Euro

Meanwhile, the GFS continues to be a complete outlier with this entire storm…

Once this one pulls away, another system looks to move in here for Wednesday and Thursday. That one could bring another messy setup with rain and some snow.

I will have your usual updates later today. Have a great Thursday and take care.

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24 Responses to Breaking Down Another Ugly System

  1. Which Way is the Wind Blowing says:

    Borderline “slush”

  2. BlizzardTim says:

    I feel like we’re in some kind of messed up version of Bill Murray’s movie
    Groundhog Day! When are we gonna wake up To a different winter weather pattern we been stuck in this winter pattern for years now! I’m ready for some old school southern tracking WIDESPREAD snowstorms!! I’m completely over this nickel and dime flurries!!

    • TennMark says:

      It was four years ago (2016) that many of us were doing some serious digging out! Especially southeastern Kentucky along I-75 (lots and lots of vehicles stuck on the interstate for a short while) and on the Tennessee Plateau, as some snow measurements of fifteen to twenty inches were recorded. Unfortunately, a few near the KY/TN line experienced some freezing rain before the change over to snow and some power outages resulted.

      January 2016 was Nashville’s last “big” snow and this event was a bit of an overperformance for the area although otherwise the forecasts were largely spot on by Chris Bailey and other mets. Eight inches at Nashville’s BNA airport. My wife and I are south of downtown; I measured about seven inches on my driveway, but a few areas just to the north of town got into double figures. My in-laws in Bowling Green received about a foot.

      Maybe only a few other weather events rival the Jan 2016 snowstorm for blog hits?!! The Feb 2015 snows/cold and the March 2 2012 tornadoes come to mind.

      • BubbaG says:

        North Richmond got three 18 plus inch snows in less than a year. On drifted on out road up to our hips. It was fun, since not stuck on the road and had power 🙂

  3. Jeff Hamlin says:

    Life could be much worse than not getting snow.

    • BubbaG says:

      Yep. CB should not try so hard with snow talk. Just accept the cold = dry and warm = wet pattern this winter (like previous two) and just let go from snow. Liberating!

    • Terry says:

      Truth for sure, but still stinks during winter on a weather blog for the atmosphere of conversation, lol.

  4. Schroeder says:

    Thanks Chris, I know it must be hard for you, when you works so hard preparing the weather Blog each and every early morning during this snow drought which now looks to continue for at lease another week. If the commentators would look to our North / West and they will find out that this Winter has been a severe one for folks in those areas. More snowstorms and frigid temperatures like we had in 1977-78 here in the Ohio Valley. The Southeast Ridge is the main player in our mild Winters the last three years, no question. Why is this feature continues to go back and forth and bringing this ” yo yo ” wet Winter when mild and dry and cold with ( the Gulf of Mexico moisture is cuts off ) is a ” mystery ” to say the lease. Never give up ” Snow Lovers ” as it is bound to warm up in the areas that are having Winter weather now and that will bring Winter weather to our area. That just the way climate works in our part of the World. I expect a very late Spring this year.

    • Prelude says:

      Ummmm…. I’m looking to the North in places like Chicago and Milwaukee etc etc are lacking the cold and snow as a matter of fact there is little to no ice on any of the lakes this year. New England has had so far a non existent winter by there standards. Not real sure on where or what you’re talking about. As a whole this Winter has not really been severe at all nationwide and by no means should be compared to the winter of 77/78.

      • BubbaG says:

        Yep, all bottled up in arctic- much to the long-term disappointment of alarmists!

      • Schroeder says:

        Tell that to the people that live in the North Central Plains where snowstorms have been training since Winter began along with well below zero temperatures just like we had in 1977-78 here in the Ohio Valley.

  5. Bjenks says:

    Well I would have Thought the cold would have been here already. I am writing this winter, that never was, off. This pattern is here to stay and once into Feb I am getting Mowers out and sharpening tools getting ready for spring mowings and landscape jobs. I do have 5000lbs of rock salt if anyone is looking. Will sale real cheap. I guess the PV will unleash in June and July just when the pools are warming.

    • BubbaG says:

      CB would normally be taking about some looming cold, but is not. I guess all that cold is bottled up in the arctic to freeze all that melting that eas taking place. Manbearpig will be very surprised!

    • BengalFan says:

      Dude, you kinda got on me a few weeks back about being negative. I’m not on you right now,,,your being realistic with the current trends. That’s all I was doing back several weeks ago. You can be realistic and not like it. I guess Bubba is realistic but has given in and is liberated by the fact of the trends…NO SNOW.

      My new Motto
      “Next year the Bengals will get JOE and hopefully we get SNOW”

  6. Terry says:

    I know that the NWS offices to our north are a little more strict when it comes to the issuing Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Watches/Warnings and generally want issue for just an inch of snow like in KY at times, but they obviously aren’t buying into the Canadian, EURO or NAM as they barely have any regular Advisories out, let alone Winter Storm Watches/Warnings for the area around or NW of Chicago.

    • Illinois Mike says:

      I’m not buying into the Canadian, Euro, or MAM models either, which show between 5 and 9 inches of snow total for the Chicago Metro area by Saturday.

      We had a steady light snow overnight in the area, and it’s still snowing lightly, but only around an inch has fallen so far here in the SW suburbs.

      1 to 2 more inches is being predicted for tonight, and maybe another inch or two Friday night, but there are currently no winter advisories or warnings for the Chicago area, as you pointed out, and also none for all of Northern and Central Illinois.

      Temps may rise a few degrees above freezing also the next couple of days, which will melt some of the snow.

  7. Jimmie says:

    Since no model is predicting much snow, I’m rooting for GFS on this one. I think I’d rather get no snow at all than to get just enough to make things messy.

  8. Cold-Rain says:

    Kind of interesting..See why Chris bashes the GFS..All models have no skill level it seems anymore..

    • Mike S says:

      Just for fun kind of like comparing two winless basketball teams playing one another, I would like to see how the GFS and GEM handle the snow data, not just for Kentucky, but other locations to our north and west. Let’s see how far off the GFS is in its placement of the expected snowfall. Only kind of entertainment I can get anymore is watch other people’s snow. Last time I did something like this, the GFS upset the Euro in the head to head snowfall matchup

    • Mike S says:

      You know when the models are all doing poorly when CB “showcases” the Canadian model as the model of choice for one recent snow event. Of course, that one didn’t go so well either, just another snow lover’s wish eased away by rain

  9. Russell says:

    Rain train. Boooo!!

  10. Jimbo says:

    Looks like the season formerly known as Winter rolls on. A day or two ago I had a mention of flakes in the weekend forecast. Now that s gone as expected.

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