Interesting Pattern Taking Shape

Good Saturday and welcome to February. Our brand new month is starting out with a little bit of dreary weather, but that changes in a hurry by Sunday. That’s when a spring surge of air moves in, kicking off what looks to be an interesting pattern into next week. Spring and winter look to collide.

Let’s begin with today and roll ahead. A few gusty showers are on the move as a system drops in from the northwest. This isn’t all day action by any means and the eastern half of the state has the best chance at seeing said showers.

Here are your tracking tools…

Temps today are generally in the 40s across central and eastern Kentucky, with the 50s in the west.

Sunday is the rare Super Bowl, Groundhog Day combo and Mother Nature isn’t going to disappoint. Skies will become mostly sunny with temps making a run at 60. Yowza!

Monday finds clouds increasing with temps likely deep into the 60s. This is ahead of a super slow-moving front that basically becomes stationary near us. This will allow waves of low pressure to develop along the boundary, bringing waves of rain with it. Heavy rainfall totals are very likely with this setup.

The question for winter weather folks is… can we get this front just a bit east to allow us to be on the cold side of a few of these lows? That’s a possibility during the second half of the week.

Here’s how the current model suite is seeing things.

The GFS has a lot of rain and a little bit of snow…

The Canadian model also has a lot of rain, but has a bigger snow system showing up…

The ICON is similar…

Here’s the EURO…

I will throw you another update later today, so check back. Have a great day one of the new month and take care.

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21 Responses to Interesting Pattern Taking Shape

  1. Terry says:

    With all oscillations (after the typical fake out) now on board for the return of the Rain Train through AT LEAST mid February, the best and about the only solid chance for a lot of snow for anyone that posts frequently on this blog would be Illinois Mike as he will be on the border of the colder air like last year and may end up above average for snow in February. For KY, best and STILL NOT GOOD chances for any snow will be west KY as the farther east/SE will be even warmer than average over the next two or so weeks. Will this be the third February straight with most or all of KY reaching around 10 or more inches of rain? Time will tell but the pattern will be ripe for at least a lot again.

    Thank you infamous Southeast Ridge, not!

    • Schroeder says:

      The Arctic is still holding it’s frigid temperatures. Most of the Arctic air is flowing south over Europe and Siberia. Right, Terry the southeast ridge has dominated our Winters for the last three years. I am still seeing chances for a change to colder temperatures about mid month. Our cloudy rainy weather is being cause by North Pacific air phasing with moisture ( energy from the Gulf.) This is just a weather cycle we are in and it has happened before and can change quickly. Always enjoy reading your post Terry and yours too Jimbo. Have a great Saturday Folks.

      • Schroeder says:

        Terry, I bet your Palm trees and the wild Rhododendrons in the mountains are loving these mild, wet Winters. I wish I could get down to the Cumberland Mountains when the Rhododendrons and Mountain Laurel are in bloom, I bet it is a site to see. Bad news is I don’t drive long distances anymore because of my poor eye site. Bummer to get old. LOL

      • Terry says:

        Thanks for your kindness. I think Jimbo did his seasonal exit at midweek but could return a reply if he gets anything on the ground again between now and April. I have never seen him leave in late January but we are in rare (I hope) territory for almost a third snowless winter.

      • Jimbo says:

        Thanks for the mention Schroeder. I do sometimes check the blog in the off season. Just wanted to mention the closest official NWS reporting site to me, Huntington WV only received a trace of snow in January and has only picked up 1.2 inches this season. Currently sitting in first place for lowest season snow total. Still time left but if there was ever a year to set this record it would be this one.

  2. Jim B says:

    The question for winter weather folks is… can we get this front just a bit east to allow us to be on the cold side of a few of these lows?

    Snowlovers, the answer is a really simple No. Not even a chance actually, how much rain will we get? Now that’s the question…

  3. Andy Rose says:

    There isn’t anything interesting about the same ole rainy pattern.

  4. Jeff Hamlin says:

    There is nothing interesting about constant complaining about the weather.

  5. Bobt says:

    Even if we flip the pattern at mid-month it looks like we have run out of time for a true winter. Average highs (especially in southern KY) just start creeping too high to have a nice snow fall that is going to last a few days. I know it’s happened before ,but like it or not we are much closer to spring than we are of repeated chances of accumulated snow falls. Only 36 days until DST and I can’t wait. Spring is my favorite time of the year just because everything starts to come back to life, days get longer, and shorts and flip flop weather is just around the corner.

  6. Bus haynes says:

    Just watched a video on the Weather Channel about the month of February. They think February will be warm in the Ohio Valley. The cold will stay up along the Canadian border.

  7. Bjenks says:

    TWC follows the NWS just like all other weather outlets, including WKYT, WAVE, WLKY…etc etc..with the GFS being the main model to forecast with. I like following the likes of CB, BG and Both JB’s when looking at long term outlooks. They take themselves out of their TV elements and give us a look from their own perspectives. The CPC just released there 8-14 day out look and it has all the East coast warm and wet. This is just not the winter for snowlovers anywhere along those lines. We will really need the Southeast Ridge to back off just a bit to get the stationary front to wiggle a couple 100 miles South by middle of the week. I know it won’t happen, but we can wish. In my books it is still Winter and we can always get that surprise snowstorm through mid March. After that I all #teamspring……

    • Terry says:

      Man what a bully the Southeast Ridge has been since 2016! I had hope last week for a mid February pattern change but the oscillations faked again. If we go back into phase 4 of MJO and keep the other oscillations the same as currently predicted, we will be having a third straight very wet and continued mild February. Probably a chance, I may see the third straight February with double digit rainfall.

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