Flooding Possible This Week

Good Monday, everyone. Rounds of heavy rain are back in the bluegrass state, bringing an increased threat for more flooding problems. This includes flash flooding and general flooding issues, especially across the already battered areas of southeastern Kentucky.

In addition to the heavy rain threat, don’t sleep on today’s winds. Gusts of 40mph or higher will be possible. With a soggy ground, a few trees may be uprooted.

My overall thoughts on the flooding haven’t changed. Here’s the area most at risk…

A general 2″-4″ of rain is likely across much of the region this week, with locally higher amounts across the southeast. This will come at us in waves with the first round of heavy rain today through early Tuesday.

Hopefully, Flood Watches come today on a broad scale…

If we just look at the rain numbers through Tomorrow, we find some hefty totals across the southeast…

NAM

Hi Res NAM

If we expand the NAM through Wednesday night, those numbers grow even more as the next round of heavy rain and thunderstorms move through…

Here are the totals through Thursday from the Canadian…

The EURO…

The GFS is a little lower…

As colder air sweeps in on Thursday, there’s the chance for some winter weather to show up, especially in the north. After a dry Friday and Saturday, things look to turn wet again by Sunday and Monday. That’s when we go back into a pretty ugly setup. The GFS rain amounts through next week…

As that second system moves through late Wednesday, there’s even the potential for strong to severe storms across the south. Here’s the latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center:

I will have your usual updates later today. I leave you with your tracking tools for the day…

Make it a great Monday and take care.


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14 Responses to Flooding Possible This Week

  1. Which Way is the Wind Blowing says:

    Same forecast but a different week.
    I feel bad for the folks in S.E. KY.

  2. Terry says:

    Due to the forecast that the front does not push far enough south of me causing some showers still between this system and Wednesday’s main low, I am starting my recording now and will give an event total by Thursday/Friday morning, instead breaking down two separate storm totals.

    It looks NWS left SE KY to hang out to dry so to speak as the data is there for a good 1 to 2 inches by late tonight but no flood watches. I know 2 inch potential isn’t extreme but we are super saturated and it want take 4 to 5 inches to cause flooding due to lower guidance values. 😛

    • Terry says:

      LOL…I got a flood watch now.

      • Schroeder says:

        Terry, Andy and others please stay safe. I just got through watching Mountain News out of Harlan. It’s unreal what I saw. I never been in a flood before so I don’t know how it would be to have your home floating down the river. I wish all and I pray for everyone’s safety. May God help all that is affected by this natural disaster.

        • Terry says:

          Thanks! I hope this second rainfall will be spread out enough to help us some. The worst of all looks to hit Wednesday night, so that may be real bad, hopefully not.

          • Schroeder says:

            Lets all hope and pray that the predicted rain for Wednesday doesn’t happen Terry. God Bless you and your family through this trying time.

        • Schroeder says:

          If I wait till it snows 15″ to 18″ here in central Kentucky I am going to have a long wait, just like Bus said in his post last Thursday. Oh, it will happen again sometime this decade, maybe before Spring gets here ?? In the meantime, I will have to be content tracking rain events. This past Friday we received about a half of inch of snow, and Saturday we had fifteen minutes of snow flurries. Total snowfall to date including the two inches on November twelve, 2019 is 2.5 inches. The average snowfall is less than twelve inches for Campellsville, Kentucky in any given year, because the moisture bearing low pressure systems tract right through Taylor county or a little west of us putting us in the warm sector most of the time and sometimes they tract to our east and south of Taylor county and we are on the northern edge or too far west to get in on the snow action. So light snow or flurries I will have to be content with probably for the rest of my life. I will continue to report rainfall totals, and any snowfall totals that may fall in my county of Taylor. The good news is, I will probably never be snowbound as long as I live here in Central Kentucky. Ice storms, I worry about the most, and the long power failures that always follow. UGH ! Not an area to live in if you are a snow lover. lol

    • BubbaG says:

      “It looks NWS left SE KY to hang out to dry” Ironic!

  3. MarkLex says:

    The rainy days and Mondays cliche. This is DEPRESSING 🙁 It’s absolutely pouring outside:)

    Anyway, Hi Coffeelady. Glad to see you back.
    Terry, sorry for all the rain down that way.
    Debbie – I remember you from when the blog first started. Noticed you’ve been commenting lately.
    Let’s all try not to give up on a huge snowstorm until mid-March.

  4. Bryan says:

    All aboard Mr Bailey’s KWC Rain Train.

    I love these “new normal” winters, and so should you. Who doesn’t get excited by gray skies, rain and mud.

    Oh well, back to the rain train!

    • Bobt says:

      It gets old after a while. I couldn’t imagine owning one of those fancy car washes in this state. I know business picks up when it finally quits raining, but how many days do they not make any money in this new climate? You go to the beach and around and there is a steady flow of cars using those everyday, here you might squeeze in two days a week. I had just driven by one this morning and was wondering about that. Sunshine is good for that business and we have little around here.

  5. Faye says:

    I haven’t had horses for a couple of years now but, I can only imagine how bad it is for those taking care of livestock with this type of weather. The endless rain, slogging through the mud, the saturated turf being torn up by hooves and making even more mud, and the problems that come from perpetually wet hooves and coats. Everyone, man and beast, needs for this rain train to derail and give us some dry times.

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