It’s A Busy Spring Pattern

Good Tuesday, everybody. It’s a damp and windy start to the day for the Commonwealth as a weak system moves through. This is all part of a busy spring pattern that will throw systems our way about every couple of days. This looks to hold true for much of March, as the overall setup continues to be skewed milder and wetter than normal.

The showers and storms out there today will be more prominent through the first half of the day, with some better weather blowing in late afternoon into the evening. Winds are gusty and could reach 40mph early on. Afternoon temps range from the upper 50s to low 60s throughout the state.

Here are your Tuesday rain tracking toys…

radars…

Wednesday is another mild and breezy day with temps back into the 60s. There’s still a slight risk for a shower or storm going up.

The storm threat increases by Thursday as a more potent storm system works in here. Temps can spike close to 70 ahead of this as southwesterly winds crank. There is the threat for strong storms going up into the afternoon and evening.

Another system brings rain and storms this weekend with another following that up early next week.

As I’ve mentioned, this active pattern looks to continue for the foreseeable future and looks to encompass a lot of real estate…

Strong to severe storms and a lot of rain will be possible in this setup. I’ve been showing the various ensembles and now the operational models are catching on…

I will have another update later today. Until then, make it a good one and take care.


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13 Responses to It’s A Busy Spring Pattern

  1. Terry says:

    I said to go further west with the rainfall, not east! 😛

    Dang, if I end up with this month being as shown above, I will be on pace for newest wettest year ever as both 2018 and 2019 were only slightly wtter than average in March, not this far above.

    • Bobt says:

      This new climate in Kentucky is kind of depressing. Prolonged stretches of sunshine (besides September 2019) is a thing of the past. Im to the point where I hate rain anymore. It just makes it hard to get out and enjoy the outdoors with the soggy terrain. Hopefully the pattern dries up a little this summer, but I highs doubt it .

      • Terry says:

        This 60 to 70 inches of rainfall annually looks to be the new norm. More than half of my years calculations since 2000 have had Harlan at 60 inches or higher in annual rainfall. Climatologically, we are only suppose to average 40 to 50 inches statewide, depending on the location. Same for temps, we are not suppose to average 50 for highs from early December through mid February but anymore we do in the heart of winter. I think they will have to consider redoing AVERAGE at some point as the data since the late 90s no longer matches the same ole average temps and precipitation still shown!

        • Shawon says:

          The NWS average temperatures (and I believe) precipitation is based on data from 1981 to 2010. I think starting next year they will use data from 1991 to 2020. If true, it will be interesting to see how the normal values adjust around here.

          • Terry says:

            Yeah, I think they show projected about 1 degree higher in Central and East KY and possibly over 1 degree higher in West KY. I am not sure about precip, but would seem we need to jack the average up about 10 more inches statewide. 😛

  2. SouthernWVaWildcat says:

    What are the dates that the map covers? I couldn’t see them. 7.71 inches of rain for southern WV will cause catastrophic flooding here no matter what, and if it’s during a short period, nothing will be left here. I’m serious too. And the ground here is still soaked to the brim, even after 3 days of dry weather. The NWS Charleston forecast has rain now every day this week, and have even included Thursday now, which was forecast to be completely dry just yesterday. “Showers likely” now. My goodness. Terry, I feel your pain, literally….

    • Terry says:

      I think that goes out for two weeks above, so hopefully, not an excessive amount in a short period of time. It is still wet here too, all be it, not as bad as a month ago as the precip hasn’t been too excessive for the past three weeks. Hopefully, you will be okay as that particular run above may not work out and can be totally different once all is said and done.

  3. SouthernWVaWildcat says:

    7.73, even worse…

  4. feederband says:

    The last time the rainfall map showed this much rain failed miserably.

    • Terry says:

      Let’s hope it does again as the time before last in early February didn’t in poor ole SE KY, although that was more short-term than this far out above.

  5. Schroeder says:

    I feel for all that have the potential for loosing their home and property due to severe flooding. What I worry about here are tornadoes. A tornado can change your life ( if you survive it ) in less than three minutes. As far as saying that this is Kentucky’s ” new climate, ” I really don’t know. This weather pattern has lasted longer than any weather pattern I experience in my lifetime ( sixty nine years. )

  6. Illinois Mike says:

    It was our wettest day yesterday in the Chicago area since late October, as .83 inches fell at O’Hare Airport and an even 1.00 inches at the NWS forecast office in Romeoville.

    The only other day in the next week we are going to get measurable rain is Thursday afternoon, as all the other days look dry and seasonable. But looking at the rainfall forecast map for the next few weeks that Chris showed, the wet pattern is going to come very close to Chicagoland.

    We’ll see how it all works out!

    • Terry says:

      My wettest day so far since last October was Feb 6th with 4.14 inches in 24hrs, lol, the week of the flooding. So many days with 1.00 in rainfall or greater, I haven’t kept track of 😛

      On a non-weather but still weather related dependency note, it is getting pretty in Harlan with blooming pears, saucer magnolias, Forsythia and such, lol.

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