Winter Storm Threat East

Good Saturday afternoon everyone. The first WINTER STORM THREAT of the season comes just days before Halloween as a historic storm continues to come together. Hurricane Sandy merging with some very cold air will result in possible blockbuster snows across parts of the Appalachian Mountains from Monday through Halloween.

The latest runs of the NAM and GFS are in pretty good agreement with one another. Both bring Sandy ashore near the Jersey coast and then work it toward the west and even southwest for a time. That throws moisture deeper into the bluegrass state and would bring rain and snow well to the west of Interstate 75.

Both runs also show a heavy, wet snowstorm for much of eastern Kentucky, southern Ohio, West Virginia and southwest Virginia. The numbers from the NAM are staggering…

The GFS Snowfall numbers aren’t too much different…

If those models are correct.. and it’s still a big if… then we are talking about a historic event for these areas. Power issues would most certainly be a major issue. In addition to the snow threat… both models show winds topping 40mph.

Given that we are two days away and the magnitude of the POSSIBLE impact it would have on our region. I have put out a WINTER STORM THREAT for eastern Kentucky…

Threat level simply means the possibility is there for 4″ or more inches of snow of significant winter weather conditions. It does not mean it will happen, but does mean there is an elevated risk. If my confidence level rises the Threat would be upgraded to an Alert. If my confidence level becomes lower, the Threat could be dropped altogether.

48 hours is an eternity when dealing with any storm… especially an unprecedented event like we’re talking about. A lot can still change and any change in the landfall location or inland track will have a major impact on our weather here in Kentucky. If Sandy takes a more northern track, then the accumulating snow threat in this region would be greatly reduced. With that said… this week should feature the first flakes of the season, at least, for parts of central and eastern Ky.

I will have additional updates later today and tonight.

Enjoy the rest of your day and take care.


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58 Responses to Winter Storm Threat East

  1. Momom says:

    Thanks for the extra updates, Chris. The runs continue to indicate a snow mess for my family in Southeastern Ky. I remember plenty of heave wet snows knocking out power in Harlan when I grew up. Not fun but the scenery was breathtaking.

  2. KC says:

    Thanks for the updates, Chris. You’re the bomb-diggity of meteorologists! ;)

  3. rolo says:

    love this, meaning get people juices flowing anyway. I still think KY fine, think that far eastern ky will see some nice snow falling fgrom the air which be pretty.

  4. Vinny says:

    Seriusly CB..? You cant’s push that threat line two counties futher west?

    #Jealous

  5. Todd says:

    Should this be called a winter like storm threat, this is not winter by a long shot, just asking???

  6. Raines says:

    Thank You so much Chris!!! I really miss you at WSAZ!! I still following on the internet. Thank you for touching on WV. I sure hope that we get pounded, I would love an old fashion snow fall.

    • Jeanna Williams says:

      I agree. Chris is the only person I trust when it comes to severe weather. Thank you for continuing to mention WV and include graphics that have us pictured. I will not go anywhere else for my winter weather info than Chris Bailey :)

      • Raines says:

        That goes for me TOO!! I am watching channel 3 and they’re not metioning any snow. I sure do miss you and THANK YOU for keeping WV in your weather news.

  7. Todd says:

    Andy is probably right, tons of snow and ky does not happen anytime of year ;)

  8. Crystal In Pikeville says:

    Chris those runs are scary and 10-16 inches over me,I bet we would lose power,I know its a long way from certain. I love snow but love my Power too.Well we will just have to see,maybe we will get some snow just enough to make it pretty and keep power.The winds will also be bad.

    • BubbaG says:

      To make matters more concerning, if Sandy keeps its power, millions could be without power, so a lot of resources that would normally be provided to other areas will further spread out. The power-out gap could be longer.

      IF it pans out, of course.

  9. BubbaG says:

    Again, this is probably an event people probably do no want: heavy snow, high wind, no power and a real quick melt. No power seems the key net result.

    For those do take a big sweeping kick for the football, Lucy seems to be starting REAL early ;)

  10. wanda wells says:

    Hope to see some of that snow. So Beautiful…..

  11. MIke says:

    After 8 years of personal experience: I will believe it when I see it.

    • Todd says:

      Agree, a lot of folks on here forget what state they live in, the history of snowless winters speaks for itself!

      • Chris Mercer says:

        It was just two years ago 2010-2011 we had one of the ten snowiest winters on record in Central Kentucky. 2009-2010 was also quite snowy. I will agree we have had some misses, but two of the last three winters have had above average snowfall.

  12. WendyT says:

    Chris, YOU ROCK !

  13. Ready4Snow says:

    Nam pretty much stayed the course..Most models are in agreement, landfall somewhere in NJ..Don’t think there will be much of a change with the models at this point…Of course if you want a ton of snow further south is better…Still a wobble here and a bobble there could make ton of difference..

  14. Tom says:

    looks great as i am in the 3-4 range which would be a nice amount to look at but not enough to create serious power failures. though i would love to go to black mountain during the storm.

  15. Confused Weatherkid says:

    I hope this comes true and I g out of school!!

  16. Todd says:

    Check out the latest east ky discussion of this upcoming storm from NOAA, they are saying slight chance of accumulation above 2500 feet, Chris is not looking at the same maps these folks are?? Who will be right??

  17. marsha says:

    Jackson not a word of snow in there forecast….

  18. WXman says:

    A 954mb storm making landfall near Long Island…this is going to be crazy.

  19. BubbaG says:

    I am still confused. Most tracks show the system favoring a more northerly trend (not hard east turn at Virginia), so less western coverage. Seems any significant snow may be the far east of KY and places more north east of KY.

    What am I missing?

    • BubbaG says:

      Meant hard west turn.

    • swva_fan says:

      The issue for us is the track can mean we’re close enough to see moisture wrap around on the southwestern side and be enhanced by a strong northwesterly flow…and you know when moisture+Northwest flow banks into the mountains, what that usually means.

  20. JJ in Pikeville says:

    Folks let’s not get the cart before the horse. As a follower Chris’s for years now I have got accustomed to Chris’s teases. I’m not going to get all excited until we are 24 hours out and he has raised the weather status to alert mode. I suggest others do the same.

    • Aaron C. says:

      I’m still trying to remember the last time Chris has upgraded to an alert for a winter storm for anything other than ice.

  21. Jenni says:

    Eastern Kentucky, esp. West Liberty, can’t take much more of these freak storms this year! 2012 will definitely go down in the record books for Morgan County!

    • Todd says:

      I’m am pretty sure this will be nothing like the devastation your area saw in early march, maybe a few snow showers at most?

  22. rolo says:

    CHRIS not teasing, he postingf what u can go see with ur own 2 eyes. he said this not a forcast, u all know how models are.

    geesh sick tired people acting like MODEL discussion ius a set in stone forcast. WAKER UP and use ur common sense.

    • BubbaG says:

      Well, the trend of Sandy does not seem to support the current maps, which is odd, since CB is only posting what the maps are showing. Most outlooks for Sandy show north with a slight west trend and then a slight hook to the west followed by a big shift north.

      I can see both sides of the argument ATM and both could be argued right or wrong ATM, since are outlooks.

      In CB’s defense he has stated over and over this is not etched in stone. Not even etched on an Etch A Sketch on a shaky road.

      That said, this IS a discussion board, so as long as folks stay civil, I see no problem in discussion points.

  23. Tyler says:

    You have to consider one extreme to the other…….no snow or a foot and a half………and as it stands, for most of the area, it seems the first of those two is almost not gonna happen. however, were still 48hrs out.

  24. Marsha says:

    Will I trust Chris he will let us know just as soon as he knows he don’t sugar coat nothing just be thankful we have someone always looking out for us…..

  25. Tom says:

    let me guess the media has a liberal bias. every time the media reports something pro Obama or something negative about Romney they are bias. despite the fact they report plenty of negatives about democrats as well as pro Romney reports. People need to stop believing every word of Rush and Fox news i can ensure you they do not care what is in the best interest of anybody but themselves. No i am not a democrat or republican i am independent because i have chosen to think for myself and not follow a bunch of rhetoric that comes from both political parties.

  26. Jason says:

    Jackson says no snow except for the highest ridge tops above 2500 feet.. (very few of us live up there)

  27. Jason says:

    And btw, stfu about politics, this is a weather blog!

  28. Justin says:

    Just like the NWS is saying, it’s going to be too warm to snow. Areas over 2500 feet may rack up, but Valley locations won’t see anything. Heck, look at the Charleston NWS office. There is a WSW for areas around Snowshoe, but even in their statement it says that 1 to 2 feet will fall for 2500 ft and above, yet will likely be too warm in the Valley’s to snow. That’s going to be the case here as well. Don’t get your hopes up people.

  29. ekyweather says:

    WVZ035>037-280500-
    /O.EXA.KRLX.WS.A.0004.121029T0600Z-121031T0000Z/
    RALEIGH-FAYETTE-NICHOLAS-
    INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…BECKLEY…OAK HILL…FAYETTEVILLE…
    MONTGOMERY…SUMMERSVILLE…RICHWOOD…CRAIGSVILLE
    450 PM EDT SAT OCT 27 2012

    LOCATIONS…BEST CHANCES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
    MOUNTAINS…BUT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT IN THE VALLEYS.

  30. Aaron C. says:

    The storm has begun phasing, or is pushing what was left of the front back to the west–look at the radar returns…the eastward progress of showers in eastern Kentucky has already begun retrograding…..

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