Good Saturday afternoon everyone. The first WINTER STORM THREAT of the season comes just days before Halloween as a historic storm continues to come together. Hurricane Sandy merging with some very cold air will result in possible blockbuster snows across parts of the Appalachian Mountains from Monday through Halloween.
The latest runs of the NAM and GFS are in pretty good agreement with one another. Both bring Sandy ashore near the Jersey coast and then work it toward the west and even southwest for a time. That throws moisture deeper into the bluegrass state and would bring rain and snow well to the west of Interstate 75.
Both runs also show a heavy, wet snowstorm for much of eastern Kentucky, southern Ohio, West Virginia and southwest Virginia. The numbers from the NAM are staggering…
The GFS Snowfall numbers aren’t too much different…
If those models are correct.. and it’s still a big if… then we are talking about a historic event for these areas. Power issues would most certainly be a major issue. In addition to the snow threat… both models show winds topping 40mph.
Given that we are two days away and the magnitude of the POSSIBLE impact it would have on our region. I have put out a WINTER STORM THREAT for eastern Kentucky…
Threat level simply means the possibility is there for 4″ or more inches of snow of significant winter weather conditions. It does not mean it will happen, but does mean there is an elevated risk. If my confidence level rises the Threat would be upgraded to an Alert. If my confidence level becomes lower, the Threat could be dropped altogether.
48 hours is an eternity when dealing with any storm… especially an unprecedented event like we’re talking about. A lot can still change and any change in the landfall location or inland track will have a major impact on our weather here in Kentucky. If Sandy takes a more northern track, then the accumulating snow threat in this region would be greatly reduced. With that said… this week should feature the first flakes of the season, at least, for parts of central and eastern Ky.
I will have additional updates later today and tonight.
Enjoy the rest of your day and take care.