The Pattern Remains Active

Good Friday to one and all. We’re kicking off the first weekend of November with more chilly temps and that’s a trend looking to hold tough into early next week. That’s when our attention turns to the possibility of another nor’easter. Ugh.

Our weather today looks very good with readings topping out in the 50s for many areas under partly sunny skies. The west will make a run at 60 with some clouds increasing late in the day. Those clouds are ahead of a fast moving system that zips across the region on Saturday. This will bring scattered showers from west to east and a few of those will last into early Sunday.

Temps Saturday will likely show a big spread with parts of the north in the upper 40s and the far southwest close to the low 70s. Winds will be fairly gusty as the chilly air wins the battle into Sunday.

The next thing for us to keep an eye on is the potential for another nor’easter to come together by the middle of next week. The models are just now beginning to come into focus on this storm. THE last thing we want to see is any kind of storm impacting the northeastern part of the country. Unfortunately, that’s something we may have to contend with next week. The European Model looks ugly… 

 The Canadian Model isn’t too far off with what it shows…

We will have to wait and see how that comes together and how it will impact our weather.

I am still focusing on a big plains storm a little farther down the road. The setup favors a big system working from the Rockies into the Great Lakes by next weekend. That may have a serious temperature gradient to work with and the GFS shows this well:

That should lay down a lot of snow across from the Rockies into southern Canada and that continues the trend of a MAJOR increase in snow cover since October first. Check out how much of the northern hemisphere is covered in the white stuff and how far above normal we are… 

That puts the snowfall buildup in October on pace with some big winters. 1976, 2009 and 2002 are all in the same ballpark with similar trends at this time of year. I have to say… I am seriously impressed at the cold air potential this winter.

Have a great Friday and take care.


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21 Responses to The Pattern Remains Active

  1. Chelle says:

    Cold air is only good if there is snow to go with it :)

  2. Mark says:

    CB touched on the winter of 1976-77. I’ve read about that winter, which was several years before I was born. Snow flakes in Miami (yes, Miami FL). Record seasonal snows from the northeast to Nashville to Dallas. An east Tennessee relative said they had so many snow days they later went to school on Saturdays for a while. Guess I’d better book a vacation to the Cayman Islands this winter. ;)

    • sue(flatwoods, KY) says:

      as a young child in gradeschool at that time here in KY we went half day of school on Sat and they also extended our reg day by an hr to help make up for all the snow days we had missed.

    • blizzardtim says:

      Yes I remember that winter well. We had snow on the ground almost all winter long and yes we had to go to school on Saturdays!! It was aweful. Since in those days Saturday mornings were the only time you could watch cartoons!!! LOL!

    • eyewall says:

      76-77 was my senior year of high school in Lex. Had a big snow Thanksgiving weekend, and the ground was covered until March. Out of school for a month and a half, because the schools could not afford heat. Did not get above freezing from early January to mid March. It was brutal.

    • jeanette says:

      I remember it well, even though I was only 9.
      We lived in Buffalo NY. We had snow every single day from Christmas into January. There was over 2.5 feet of snow. I remember snow covering our front doors and the city coming and digging them out, school buses & cars covered and a parking lot in back of a closed restaurant at the main street leading into our neighborhood became like an ant farm for us kids…we built forts, walls, igloos and there was a snowman in every yard. THEN the actual blizzard hit, and the level of cold was incredible and we couldnt go outside anymore. People trapped in cars, crazy wind made snow drifts into hard walls, some as high as houses, insane wind chill factors… I remember looking outside and seeing nothing but white. You couldnt see the house next door it was snowing so hard. Like sheets instead of flakes.
      Craziness.
      I was young enough to be oblivious to the bad stuff and have mostly good memories of that though.
      I know alot of the adults that were around back then don’t have such fond memories of that blizzard. :)

    • KeavyMan says:

      I was in jr High School atr the time. I lived just north of Cincinnati and remember that winter very well. The Blizzard in that January was so bad that half our house was under a snowdrift. Fairfield City Schools were closed from late January to March and then we went 1 day a week to get va weeks worth of homework. Once school resumed…we went the remainder of the school year 6 days a week. Only day off was Sunday. We even went to make up days 2 weeks after school was suppose to be out. I loved that blizzard and the blizzard of 93 here in SE KY. It was worth going to school every Saturday, loosing Easter Break, and 2 weeks after school was to be out to have the winter we had. As a kid…I could say that. As an adult, maybe something similar but not as bad….LOL

  3. Mark says:

    After delays due to Hurricane Sandy, NWS Jackson KY is finally starting their dual-pol radar upgrade.
    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dualpol/index.php?wfo=jkl
    Jackson was originally slated to begin after Thanksgiving, so things are still ahead of schedule.

    Other NWS radars like Morristown TN, Louisville, Charleston WV will have to do for the next week or so while Jackson is out of service. As we know, WKYT’s First Alert Defender dual-pol radar is also an alternative, just click the ‘Radars’ tab at top of Kentucky Weather Center page.

  4. Pamela Harris says:

    Hello all. I’ve been following Chris Bailey here at KWC for only a week or so now. Found the link on Farmers Almanac when someone told me to check this out regarding the developing of Sandy. I think Chris does an excellent job of informing us about what to expect. I do have a question, what does the colors mean on the models. I live in Richmond Virginia and most of my coworkers live/work in Kentucky. Is there something that can tell me what the colors indicate? Thanks. Keep up the good work Chris, wish you could do Central Virginia also:)

  5. Cliffs says:

    Don’t hold your breath for snow it probably won’t happen

  6. WendyT says:

    I am NOT a fan of real cold weather, as in below freezing for weeks on end. Even if there is snow to go with it.

  7. Thomas says:

    Got a question for winter this year. I live in Murray, KY and see predictors saying this winter will be like 76-77. I also see that the NAO will have a negative tilt and favor snow for central, nothern and eastern KY along with below average temps. Does this setup favor more snow for western KY as well or will we just see below average temps and not much in he way of more storm systems? Also with the jet stream dipping so low from our west and coming back up from the far east how does that impact the flow of the storm systems as well? Thanks for the replies in advance.

  8. Brandon says:

    what happened in the winter of 1976? I live in western KY. What was it like in western KY?

    • 3789N8434W says:

      short answer…it was a good old fashioned WINTER!

    • Faye says:

      It snowed every few days and just kept piling up. It was cold and you didn’t have much melting of the snow that fell. We were out of school for weeks on end. Seems like we had over 20″ on the ground in far western KY. I remember that everytime they would get the roads semi-cleared, and there was the possibility we might be going back to school, then it would snow again and we’d start the process once more.

  9. Thomas says:

    Yeah good luck getting an answer lol

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