A Short Lived Warm Up

Good Friday and welcome to the start of the weekend. If you’re a fan of warm fall temps… this is just the pattern for you as we are going to crank it up over the next few days. The flip side of all that is it’s not going to last very long as a big temp plunge takes place early next week.

The forecast this weekend is about as easy as it can possibly get. Mainly sunny skies with warm southwesterly winds kicking in will boost temps into the upper 60s to near 70. While we enjoy that, let’s not forget to give today’s weather some props. Sunshine and temps near 60 will make for a great Friday.

A big time storm is developing across the Rockies and northern plains this weekend. That will bring a crippling blizzard behind it and the possibility of severe storms ahead of it. That low heads into Canada as we close out the weekend and that will drag a cold front closer to Kentucky. This front will wipe out our big warm up by Monday and the European Model shows the drastic drop…

 The GFS Ensembles offers up a similar view…

This view shows how quickly we go from above normal to below normal temps…

What does all that mean for our actual weather? Here goes…

- Showers and thunderstorms will quickly increase from west to east on Monday. Locally heavy rains are a good bet.

- Temps Monday will drop rapidly as the front swings through and some areas may see a drop of 20-30 degrees in a few hours time.

- Winds will be very gusty from Sunday though Tuesday.

- The cold air may catch the back edge of the rain shield and give some folks a few Tuesday Morning flurries.

Looking a little farther down the road…

- A slow moving upper level low may work our way by the end of next week into the following weekend. The models suggest a healthy rain event may unfold from the lower Mississippi River Valley into our region.

- The expansive blocking we’ve seen this fall has relaxed a bit and will continue to do so over the next several days. That blocking may come roaring back to life around Thanksgiving weekend and the models are trying to sniff out some fun and games around that time.

Have a wonderful Friday and take care.


This entry was posted in Uncategorized. Bookmark the permalink.

9 Responses to A Short Lived Warm Up

  1. Mark says:

    At this time, looks like any severe t-storms for us early next week would be mainly damaging winds. A relatively low tornado threat for now.

    BTW, the dual-pol conversion for the radar at NWS Jackson KY is finished, radar back in service:
    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=jkl&storyid=89181&source=0

  2. Neil says:

    Hey Chris,
    For some reason, my e-mail decided to tease me with these two archival updates this morning:

    Christmas Eve Snow Tracker-10pm Update:
    http://kyweathercenter.com/?p=755

    Snowy Period Getting Started:
    http://kyweathercenter.com/?p=714

    Couldn’t get hotlinking to work, but I do hope its a sign of a snowy winter ahead!

    • Cameron Fry says:

      Neil,

      You’re not alone. Not sure what happened.

      On a 2012/mid-range outlook front…I hear Thanksgiving week is looking quite stormy. Not sure if it’s strong storms stormy or heavy rain + some snow stormy. Any thoughts?

      • Neil says:

        Well, it appears that after relaxing a bit, the blocking pattern is set to return. Hopefully it decides to stick around for the long-haul this winter, and give us plenty of snow.

  3. WendyT says:

    So glad to have one more warm weekend so I can finish up my winter preparations on the farm. Then it’s game on! Bring on the snow!

  4. Teacher Nate says:

    This is the only time of year I don’t want a warm up….deer season. With temps in the 70′s, I think the deer harvest numbers will be low this year because the deer won’t want to move as much. BOOO the warmup!

  5. Dawnp007 says:

    Yes. I got the snowy forecast as well. My heart stopped for a brief second! Lol

  6. sue(flatwoods, KY) says:

    yes we like the warmer weather but this is not a good weekend for it, My husband and boys are going deer hunting in the morn, need it to be alittle cooler for them to really do any good,

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>