Below Normal Temps Continue

Good Thursday everyone. We have one impressive cold snap going across Kentucky. It’s one that is now three weeks old and has only featured a couple of days of temps above normal. The high latitude blocking that caused this chilly streak and early taste of winter weather is relaxing a bit right now. The good news for cold and snow lovers is it looks to come back as we end the month.

Let’s start with the short term weather and then jump ahead. We have another day with a mix of sun and clouds with temps in the upper 40s to low 50s. The warmer temps will be located in the west and far south. Thermometers will warm all the way into the 50-55 degree range for this upcoming weekend with lows in the high 20s and low 30s. On and off clouds will be likely and we will need to watch for a late weekend shower across the east.

The models continue to advertise a storm forming off the east coast for early next week, but it looks like it may be too far east to have much of an impact on our weather. Given this thing may be farther east, it will open the door for a weak moving system to work in from the west by Tuesday. This may bring an increase in clouds and some showers to kick off our Thanksgiving Travel period. The European Model shows these showers…

If the models hold course, the weather for Thanksgiving and Black Friday looks pretty good.

If you’ve been reading over the past week, I’ve been highlighting the potential for the blocking to kick back into high gear after Thanksgiving and into early December. Many of the indices I look at are forecast to become favorable for a wintry pattern during that time frame.

The long range models toward the end of the month show what I’m talking about. Check out this upper air map from the GFS for the entire Northern Hemisphere. I’ve circled in red the areas of blocking and circled in white to show how the polar vortex splits…


The two blocks you see forming look similar to the ones that lead to our current cold snap. If you can get those two to meet over the pole… look out below. The splitting of the vortex suggests there will be some bitterly cold air dumping into Canada as we roll toward early December. We will see if we can tap some of it here in the states, but the amount of blocking this fall suggests we can.

The new GFS Ensembles show a quick transition to cold the week after Thanksgiving…

Enjoy your Thursday and take care.

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4 Responses to Below Normal Temps Continue

  1. KP says:

    I have commented, along with a few others, about the squirrels being absolutely out of control this fall with the nut collecting. We usually have acorns and black walnuts on the ground throughout the winter. This year there is not a nut to be found on the ground. I just looked out my window and there was a squirrel searching beneath our big oak tree, scratching around and double checking to make sure nothing was missed. Something is brewing. 🙂

  2. BubbaG says:


    Until we get some results to counter the weak trend for snow events, I am going with the trend and thinking more of the same for this winter. Results matter far more than outlooks. Results for most of us in the area has been lots of little tiny snows that make the average look decent. Net result is more salt all over the place than snow 😉

    I look forward to CB’s outlook for winter, but respectfully need to see a trend of events that are more than the little ankle biter of less snows. Getting 30 plus inches of snow may sound good, but not if about 30 events to get there 😉

  3. Lincoln says:

    I just want it to snow, lets be honest, last year sucked.

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