Tracking A Wintry Change

Good Monday to one and all. Thanksgiving week is upon us and the nice weather we’ve been seeing of late should continue for a few more days. All of this is leading up to quite a change by the coming weekend and that change looks to be part of a grander plan from Old Man Winter.

Let’s get the boring stuff out of the way first. Temps today will be back into the upper 50s and lower 60s for most of the state. There’s still the small threat for a shower or two Tuesday into Wednesday, but this system is moisture starved. Thanksgiving Day will be a nice one with highs near 60 as a few clouds increase by the end of the day.

This brings us to Black Friday and a strong cold front that will blow in from the northwest during the afternoon and evening. The European Model continues to advertise very cold air, wind and a few flurries by Saturday…

The GFS is just now beginning to really pick up on the front, but is still not cold enough. Regardless… it shows the potential for a few flakes by Friday night…

Watch the GFS grow colder in the coming days. The Canadian Model has been all over this front and continues to show the threat for a few flakes on a strong northwesterly wind flow on Saturday…

Temps Saturday will struggle to get out of the 30s and that’s exactly what malls and local shops love to see on the big Christmas shopping weekend.

This is the lead up to a wintry pattern that continues to be well advertised on the models for the final week of November into early December. I’ve been watching the blocking across the high latitudes and it has been stout this fall. After a short break… the models are forecasting some massive blocking during the coming weeks.

Take a look at what I mean…

The blocking across Greenland and the blocking across the Aleutian Islands try to hook up over the top of the globe. That forces the cold air to dive southward across Canada and into the states. That’s a pretty wild sight to see. A few days later, the GFS goes insane with the Greenland block (-NAO)…

IF the models are correct with the amount of blocking coming up over the next few weeks… much of the country could be in line for some wild weather.

Next week offers up some active weather and the models all show it, but differ on timing and evolution. That’s always the case from a week away. Regardless… they advertise the potential for a big storm that would bring us rain to snow as the bottom falls out of our thermometers.

More on that with a post later today. I will also have the Winter Forecast coming up tonight at 6 on WKYT. This has been done for a while and I will admit.. what I’m seeing now is making me wish I could take another stab at it. ;)

Have a great Monday and take care.


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11 Responses to Tracking A Wintry Change

  1. Dara says:

    As far as snow chances go it really concerns me that several if not most systems we’ve seen have been moisture starved systems(with the exception of tropical systems) from as far back as summer. I love the fact that it will be cold enough to snow but it really makes me question whether we’ll in fact have the moisture to produce the snow? I would love to know what would help our chances into the winter months? Thanks for the update :)

    • Ready4Snow says:

      Certainly a -NAO and -AO helps our cause..Would also think if you can get an active southerly polar jet stream precipitation is usually greater in the southeast and gulf..Cold air with blocking and low pressure developing in the gulf with a storm track headed our way,tapping moisture from the gulf…OH MY MY MY..

    • Tyler says:

      also the cold air will help produce more in the way of snow, moisture is brought out in the cold weather!

  2. lisaj says:

    I can’t wait for your winter forecast at 6pm.
    I am on staycation next week and would love some snow!!

  3. WXman says:

    All indices pointing strongly negative. Big changes coming soon indeed.

  4. KP says:

    Watched the first part the Ken Burns documentary on the Dust Bowl last night. (PBS) Don’t ever let me complain about the weather again!

    Seriously, I had a major attitude adjustment after seeing what those poor people endured. Suffocation by dust…no thanks. :(

    Looking forward to what Chris has to say tonight!!!!

    • Emerson Biggins says:

      Nobody does documentaries better than Ken Burns, love his stuff. I missed that last night but I’ll catch it on Netflix. Oh and by the way bring on the snow, it’s been too long.

  5. Todd says:

    Nice looking sun dog in Frankfort this afternoon, waiting to here how much snow the winter weather master is seeing in our future BRING-IT Chris!

  6. Mark says:

    Just watched CB’s predictions via livestream. Thanks, Chris, you rival the Nashville tv mets we have here (and we have some good ones).

    While we are looking for somewhat more normal conditions this coming season, won’t hurt to still be prepared for the infrequent chance of severe t-storms with some twisters this winter – this is expected in most any winter in our area. But probably no where near the amount of severe wx we had last winter ;)

  7. Todd says:

    Chris sounded very cautious with his winter forecast, mid January to mid February didn’t sound good to me, most of the snow in his view finder is within that period. That says to me much more warm than cold until maybe mid January, I guess time will tell??? TWC also on board with mostly mild weather for the east half of US until February !

    The sun is already headed high in the sky in February, that means even if we get snow then it does not stay long :(

  8. jeanette says:

    Good grief, we aren’t even in the winter season yet and already people are fretting. Chill out people, sheesh.

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