Good Monday to one and all. Thanksgiving week is upon us and the nice weather we’ve been seeing of late should continue for a few more days.Β All of this is leading up to quite a change by the coming weekend and that change looks to be part of a grander plan from Old Man Winter.

Let’s get the boring stuff out of the way first. Temps today will be back into the upper 50s and lower 60s for most of the state. There’s still the small threat for a shower or two Tuesday into Wednesday, but this system is moisture starved. Thanksgiving Day will be a nice one with highs near 60 as a few clouds increase by the end of the day.

This brings us to Black Friday and a strong cold front that will blow in from the northwest during the afternoon and evening. The European Model continues to advertise very cold air, wind and a few flurries by Saturday…

The GFS is just now beginning to really pick up on the front, but is still not cold enough. Regardless… it shows the potential for a few flakes by Friday night…

Watch the GFS grow colder in the coming days. The Canadian Model has been all over this front and continues to show the threat for a few flakes on a strong northwesterly wind flow on Saturday…

Temps Saturday will struggle to get out of the 30s and that’s exactly what malls and local shops love to see on the big Christmas shopping weekend.

This is the lead up to a wintry pattern that continues to be well advertised on the models for the final week of November into early December. I’ve been watching the blocking across the high latitudes and it has been stout this fall. After a short break… the models are forecasting some massive blocking during the coming weeks.

Take a look at what I mean…

The blocking across Greenland and the blocking across the Aleutian Islands try to hook up over the top of the globe. That forces the cold air to dive southward across Canada and into the states. That’s a pretty wild sight to see. A few days later, the GFS goes insane with the Greenland block (-NAO)…

IF the models are correct with the amount of blocking coming up over the next few weeks… much of the country could be in line for some wild weather.

Next week offers up some active weather and the models all show it, but differ on timing and evolution. That’s always the case from a week away. Regardless… they advertise the potential for a big storm that would bring us rain to snow as the bottom falls out of our thermometers.

More on that with a post later today. I will also have the Winter Forecast coming up tonight at 6 on WKYT. This has been done for a while and I will admit.. what I’m seeing now is making me wish I could take another stab at it. πŸ˜‰

Have a great Monday and take care.