Winter Threatens To Arrive Next Week

Good Tuesday everyone. For the past few weeks, the blog has been shining a spotlight on the period right after Thanksgiving as one to watch for a wintry period. The closer we get to this time frame, the wilder the models start to look.

Today through Thanksgiving will continue to feature mild days with highs in the upper 50s and low 60s with a mix of sun and clouds. There is a very small chance for a shower today and early Wednesday. Thanksgiving Day looks mild and breezy with dry weather.

The action starts on Black Friday as a strong cold front dives in from the northwest. Winds are going to gust up as showers move in by midday Friday. Our temps will hit the low 50s early and then fall into the 30s during the evening hours. A northwesterly wind flow will push some clouds and snow flurries into central and eastern Kentucky Friday night and Saturday. The GFS is now getting a good handle on this…

The GFS is also growing colder for Saturday’s highs and now shows the 30s we’ve been talking about…

I’ve been calling this a warning shot from Old Man Winter and the old guy looks to be waking up super early this year. The storm early next week is coming in as a much colder system on some of the models as they start to see the amount of blocking going on. The GFS shows one heck of an upper level look early next week…

That’s the look of some of the great winters of the past. The end result of that is a very wintry system rolling through here…

The GFS Ensembles Mean looks very similar…

The NOGAPS and European Models have both gone toward similar solutions to what the above models are showing. That’s still a week away and a lot can and will happen. I can tell you this setup is even more wintry than I originally thought and has my full attention.

Let’s remember it’s still November, so let’s just sit back and see how this thing works out. Regardless, you will have a lot of snow chances in the coming few weeks.

I will have another update later today. Have a great Tuesday and take care.

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18 Responses to Winter Threatens To Arrive Next Week

  1. alena says:

    When are you going to post your winter forecast on the blog? I like the way next week is looking. Love winters with snow.

  2. james says:

    Let the tracking begin! Thanks Chris! Looking forward to some possible snow next week.

  3. Meme says:

    I love it!! I have been looking forward to next week as the “Old Farmer’s Almanac” has our region forecast to get the first snowstorm of the winter at the end of the month!!! I am glad it may pull together!!

  4. Tracey says:

    This should put everyone in the Christmas spirit. Let’s hope for snow at Christmas time… ❄⛄

  5. JULIE says:

    Hi Chris. I still follow you after you left WSAZ. When will you post your forecast for winter on the blog? I can’t get the Kentucky TV station you are on. I am ready for lots of snow. Bring it on. Thanks for a great job!!!

  6. Coffeelady says:

    Sounds like a lot of fun, but oh…those electric bills! Will be interesting to see how it all plays out, for sure. thanks, Chris!

  7. lisaj says:

    Snow Snow Snow…..I am going to start the Snow Dance in Versailles!!
    Hopefully this winter season won’t make me feel like Charlie Brown again………I’m a big kid who just keeps on hoping!!!

  8. Pamela Harris says:

    What are the chances that Richmond Va will see some snow from that system?

  9. Todd says:

    If those models would hold true the snow dome area would get several inches of snow Tuesday ??

  10. Chris Mercer says:

    Let the fun begin–
    The weather channel is calling for below normal December; above normal January and below normal February with the coldest in regard to normal being February. The fact the Weather Channel, which usually seems to be bullish on the heat, has two of three months below normal seems to indicate many are seeing signs of a cold winter.

    Now we just need the snow to go with it!

  11. Bjenks says:

    Like what I am seeing….BUT I will only believe it when I see it. Fence, Snow Do me, Charlie Brown, move West my friendly Low.

    Thanks Chris for posting your thoughts. I hope the models hold true on the above.


  12. Todd says:

    I noticed that the weather channel map for January temps had a fine line between colder than normal vs warmer than normal across southern Ohio, dec, feb colder than normal, this winter might just rock this year with a little love from the snow gods 🙂

  13. KP says:

    I am predicting snow for Dec. 5. The reason is that my M-I-L, a new Kentuckian who recently arrived from hotter than heck Texas, has to drive me to my sinus surgery and it will be a couple hours on the road. She is pre-worried that it will be snowing and she is afraid of driving in it. I laughed and said there was only one real snow last year. Then Chris mentioned that first week of December as being the time to watch. So mark your calendars for Dec. 5! 🙂

  14. Todd says:

    it is amazing how different weather guys look at the same maps, just watched Louisville area mets and they are saying 50’s for Tuesday and also said December will be the warmest month of the winter! WHAT, ok a lot of different info out their, we have the usual all over the place forecast for our area??

  15. jeanette says:

    Hey Chris– where’s the ‘later today’ update?!? 😉

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