Watching The Early Week Storm

Good Saturday and welcome to a cold weekend in the bluegrass state. Temps today will be among the coldest daytime readings of the season, so far. A passing snow flurry is even possible in the north and east. While everyone is talking about today’s cold, I’m keeping a close eye on our early week storm system.

This storm has been handled pretty poorly by the models over the past several days. That’s usually the case as we make the transition into winter and is especially true when the overall pattern is realigning itself. People simply can’t live and die with each model run as they will exhibit dramatic shifts.

We are getting to the time frame to see the models come around to a similar idea and that appears to be happening. The latest forecast models all suggest a fairly juicy storm system that takes a track just to our south and east. A track like that is likely to bring the rain/snow line across the state pretty early on before most areas end as some snow as the storm pulls away.

The GFS is pretty robust looking for the northern half of the state…

This one run of the GFS actually puts down accumulating snow in the north…

Again… that is just ONE run of the GFS.

The Canadian Model looks very similar with the storm track…

 The NOGAPS shows an even stronger and colder system…

The European Model is even coming around to showing more of  a storm system.

Moral of the story is I still like the rain ending as snow scenario. As we get closer, the possibility of a little more snow for some is on the table and that’s what we will be watching for as we go through the weekend.

I will have an update later today. Have a great Saturday and take care.


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16 Responses to Watching The Early Week Storm

  1. Andy Rose says:

    as with most rain/snow systems this in my opinion will start and end as rain as usual.

  2. Mike says:

    My prediction: Starting as rain, warming up a bit for more rain, ending with some wrap around rain. We’ll see…

    “I’ll believe it when I see it.”

  3. TONEY says:

    i can not believe all the complaining on here this morning, just 2 days after being thankful for every thing in life and now complaining over a little snow system and we are not even in meteorological winter as of yet…..it starts dec.1st………wait till christmas or new years or beyond then u have a right to complain but come on guys and gals we have already had an early taste of winter out of season so let us not rush things up………i heard joe bastardi mention that it is coming and when it does u may not want it……he says a december to remember.

    • Todd says:

      Agree with you toney, if I can see just a few flakes flying in the air I am happy this time of year, the good stuff is coming this year I feel it in my bones!

  4. Danny says:

    I fully agree its still November any kind of snow we get is a bonus this early in the game.

  5. WXman says:

    The 12Z GFS is coming in now and it’s even more bullish than the 06Z about snow. Looks like Tuesday we could possibly even see a dusting on the roadways early. But…looking down the road into December is where it gets really exciting.

    • LD says:

      No, no no no. See, when YOU start talking like that it makes me hopeful. I promised myself to avoid the usual disappointment cycle of ‘listen to snow potential ->believe it -> next to nothing happens’. You’re always the needed devil’s advocate here, the Sith voice of skepticism to counter the eternal snow optimism of the Jedi. Don’t leave the dark side, I beseech you! Remember, we’re the ones with the cookies, the cool clothes, and the best laughs. I don’t care what neon colored light saber the Jedi Council promises you, stay with us!

  6. patty says:

    MikeM are you out there??

  7. JJTeach says:

    Anybody else have any insight on what the midday models are saying?

  8. Mike says:

    Not complaining or pessimistic, just realistic. After 8 years in KY and 24 inches of snow (or less) total in my back, my mantra has shifted from: “I can’t wait!” to: “I’ll believe it when i see it.” I just think winter forecasting is way tougher than any other time of the year. The mets nail forecasts in the other three seasons, winter – not so much. I know they do the best they can; the science is just not there yet.

    I still love the blog and read it daily.

  9. Todd says:

    I think the Ohio valley is the toughest forecast to nail in the winter because we are always on the edge of the cold vs warm battle lines!

  10. Ready4Snow says:

    Really wouldn’t expect much from this system…Looks weak to me..No time to build any energy..20 model runs and a different solution every run..lol.. Look around the 2nd week of December or a little earlier when according to some models we get a +pna with -nao and -ao..

  11. endleswavz says:

    Got in on my first snow of the season this morning! As always… I had to drive to the Chicagoland area to make it happen! Ran five bullish miles in flurries and a 25 mph headwind! I like how this Winter is setting up for the Ohio Valley… besides, at some point we are due! Happy Holiday Season everyone! Let the games begin!

  12. Joey Wilson says:

    Latest models have brought possible snows further south, which is good. But we’re still 48 hours away from this so who knows.

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