A Shot Of Winter On The Way

Good Sunday, folks. We’re wrapping up a cold weekend with a mix of sun and clouds and clouds out there today. Thermometers on Saturday made for the coldest November day since 2008 for some cities across the state. We have the cold, now all we need is some moisture to produce a taste of winter weather and it looks like that will happen over the next few days.

An area of low pressure will work from the southern plains through the Tennessee Valley late Monday into Tuesday. This will throw rain and snow into Kentucky starting Monday evening. The southern track of this weak little low means colder air will be pulled into the state and should give most areas a little taste of the white stuff.

This doesn’t look like a big deal, but it does have the potential to put down a slushy, light accumulation. Here’s the area most at risk as of right now…

Does that mean the whole outlined area will see accumulating snow? No, but it does mean areas within have the best shot at picking up some slushy stuff.

Here’s a look at how the GFS looks with the setup…

The Canadian Model is a little colder and farther south with the snow line…

Snow threats in November are a bonus and sometimes a sign of an active winter ahead of us. That certainly looks to be the case this year.

I will have another update later today, so check back. Make it a great Sunday and take care.


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16 Responses to A Shot Of Winter On The Way

  1. MJ says:

    “Snow threats in November are a bonus and sometimes a sign of an active winter ahead of us.”

    Indeed, there is nothing wrong with that statement. However, the big problem is meteorological community is that everyone is betting on the Arctic Oscillation to negative (like the GFS and Euro) do. Yeah, that is great and all, but is it linked up properly with a properly placed -NAO pattern? Nope. The main problem with the idea getting cold and I mean big cold into the US that big trough that you can see off the western US coast (its the -PNA)….which is being driven by that big old omega ridge over near Alaska. Two things can happen here:

    1. That Omega Block crashes, which lets the PNA go positive and induce a west coast ridge. This ridge with a deep -AO and a blocking -NAO pattern would then allow the flood of arctic air down in the US.

    2. That Omega Block Holds, which keep the PNA in the negative range. Despite having the -AO up over the arctic. Some small scale transits with the -NAO pattern may produce a few systems through the Great Lakes and into New England, but that would be about it.

    3, The latest CFS runs with multiple members are more suggestive of keeping the arctic cold up across west Canada with above normal temperatures for December (+2-3 degrees).

    But first, that omega ridge out over the gulf of Alaska has to break down so we can get the west coast ridge back into place. Otherwise we could be looking a very boring, but mild pattern in December.

    • Pierce says:

      This is an excellent point that I think many of us have overlooked. I overlooked it as well. I have been noticing the models pushing towards higher 500 mb height anomalies recently. I hope December doesn’t turn out like that, but it is looking more and more like it every time I look at the model runs. Maybe January and February will bring snow.

  2. rolo says:

    well this weak systen has the right type track for a SNOW in our parts, so maybe we can get a COD DRAGGER to happen with same kinda track this winter.

    tx BAILEY

  3. JJTeach says:

    Hope this is a sign of things to come for this winter!
    -snow in November has to be a good thing.
    -January type cold and it’s 3 days after Thanksgiving.

    BTW…somebody post the 12z NAM & GFS snow maps when they come out later please! I have searched and searched and can never find them myself.

    Thanks :)

  4. TONEY says:

    will someone please tell me the website to the kentucky chat room for weather……i use to go there all the time with blizzard tim and others and i had it book marked but somehow 1 of my grandkids were playing around on my computer and deleted it out or something…….come on, i know someone out there knows this….how about you mr. bailey, rolo, coffeelady or any one……thank you for your help.

    • Joey Wilson says:

      You might be thinking about the ekywx.com site which was a lot of fun to visit and chat during potential winter events. I don’t think it’s active anymore. I couldn’t find it last winter and now it appears to be gone.

  5. Joey Wilson says:

    NWS in Paducah started buying in to a snowy scenario for northern part of its area last evening but backed way off this morning. They’re calling for a chance of freezing drizzle in Owensboro tomorrow night but no snow :(

  6. Allen says:

    The WKYT weather app is not working.

  7. patty says:

    Well MJ I think you just put a pin in it!

    • MJ says:

      Nah, I wouldn’t say that. There has just been a lot of speculation that December will be a wild month. Based on the long range teleconnection patterns, I just do not think that is the case at this time. In fact, if the pattern over the Pacific does not change, much of December could be a LOT warmer than normal. I still think we’ll see some shots of cold air, but they will not last long. The pattern looks more likely to get going in January and February with regards to snow and cold.

  8. Neil says:

    Had a chilly 18°F reading overnight on my front porch in Wilmore, hope its a sign of much bigger, longer-lasting cold to come!

  9. Lincoln says:

    At least it looks like Perfect North maybe able to open within the next 10 days, I need my snowboarding fix.

  10. Emma (Knott County) says:

    Looks like a bust for eastern ky..I was hoping to see some snow Monday night!

  11. Jake Chapman- WV says:

    If everyone on here commenting knows weather then why don’t they have their own weather website? I come here to read Chris Baileys thoughts not everyone who can see a cloud. Not being a Debbie downer but if you don’t like/agree with bailey then DON’T come to HIS site. Just a thought

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