A Brush With Winter Tonight

Good Monday everyone and thanks for making KWC your online home for weather. It’s all eyes on our taste of winter moving in later tonight and early Tuesday. This little system will be a rain ending as snow scenario for much of the bluegrass state, but not everyone will see flakes that stick. Even those who do, won’t see a whole heck of a lot.

This is a nice reminder that winter is on the way and should help get some of the Scrooges in the Christmas spirit. Well… probably not, but it’s a nice thought. :)

Here’s a breakdown:

- Light rain will break out this afternoon and evening from southwest to northeast. Temps will warm to around 50 before the rain gets in and then fall through the 40s.

- Colder air works in overnight and this will cause the rain to mix with and then change to snow after midnight into Tuesday morning. This looks to be a period of light snow that shouldn’t fall more than 4 hours in any one location.

- Much of this will be melting snow, but a slushy accumulation is possible on elevated and grassy surfaces. Here’s a look at who has the best chance of seeing that happen…

- Most folks won’t wake up to snow on the ground, but some areas should pick up a covering. I suppose if everything works out just right… an inch or two would be possible for a lucky few. That’s a pretty big if.

So what happens after today? Chilly temps will take us through Wednesday before a seasonal brand of air takes over late this week into the weekend. Temps will likely warm back toward the low 50s as clouds and moisture increases ahead of a system working across the northern plains. That means scattered showers break out from late Friday into the coming weekend. You can see how this system looks on the NAM:

 Some random thoughts for December:

- The month will start off “dirty”. While temps will be normal to a bit above, clouds and scattered showers could impact our weather.

- The blocking the models have been hinting at is there and all the players are slowly getting in place for some potential wild weather across the country. The blocking signals may not always arrive on time, but they rarely lie in the end. I do find it entertaining that some people freak out and cancel a whole month of weather a week before it even starts. LOL

- Watch the period of Dec. 7th through the 14th for a major amplification of our jet stream. This may lead to a “threat” or two before the month is over.

I will give you guys another update later today and have the latest on WKYT starting at 5. Have a fantastic start to your week and take care.


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17 Responses to A Brush With Winter Tonight

  1. jeanette says:

    “I do find it entertaining that some people freak out and cancel a whole month of weather a week before it even starts. LOL”

    LOL Chris… I thought that same thing reading some of the comments here yesterday. December hasn’t even started yet and people are already saying its a bust for cold weather and snow. :D

  2. BubbaG says:

    My heart is with you CB, but my mind sticks with the trends since based on actual results over the past soon to be 15 years. Sure, we get decent average snow years sometimes, but takes a lot of 1″ and 2″ events to get most of us there (central and lately western KY).

    It will take actual results (more than an ankle biters) to truly offset this very long trend before I buy into an outlook or even a forecast for medium to big snows. Again, my heart is with you though :)
    We need some of those 1″ and 2″ drive-by events to band together into one event :)

  3. james says:

    Narrow band for Chris’s best chance zone, but I’m finally in it(Lexington) :)

  4. Cameron Fry says:

    We need to be rooting for the NAM on this one. Not sure what other models (besides the GFS) are indiciating at this time…

    http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays2-10to1.php3?STATIONID=LVX

    • Lincoln says:

      At least we have a chance my location in Lex on the NAM would give me a nice 2 inches. I can live with it, and as James said we in Lexington are finally in the ” Best chance” zone. Lol always the ankle biter, never the bread and butter, or mild depending on your taste.

  5. JJTeach says:

    Wow…Lawrenceburg and ALL of Anderson County is in the best chance zone. That’s almost unheard of! I don’t even care if most of it melts. I just feel special to be in the “best chance” zone :)

    • Lincoln says:

      I graduated from ACHS, even if most of it melts, that school system will be out. I remember in 2002-2003 we missed 19 days of school. Lol. Perhaps things have changed.

  6. Cameron Fry says:

    To those who live in or not too far from Lexington, where are some of the higher, elevated hills located?

  7. Russ says:

    Well, the comparisons to last year seem fair already. it was always the cold and blocking patterns were a week away last winter. So far, the trend is similar. We had a 1-2 day shot of cool air here in southern Ky, but temps are coming back up.

    • BengalFan says:

      AGREE! HYPE! I relate to being a BENGALS FAN! Bengals are Average at BEST! They look great one week, then comeup short or just stink. That’s the way our winter weather has been over the past 15 years!

  8. todd says:

    It is a pattern of wait and see in a couple of weeks, Chris should no how frustrated snow lovers are because he is one of us, this little duster coming in had some promise a few days ago but the trend of fading away or moving away continues. Like someone has already stated I don’t have much faith in the models or CHRIStal Balls of the future :)

  9. TONEY says:

    oh ye of little faith, winter has not even began yet……consider it a bonus in the ohio valley to even mention snow in november……..chris’s point was very valid this morning.

  10. Lisa says:

    It is cooler than what is predicted to be. Does that mean maybe more snow?

  11. Mike says:

    Was this every the “5 day away storm”? I don’t think it amounted to that but… seems a lot like last year, and the year before and the year before and the … … …

  12. Ready4Snow says:

    We warm up for the first week of December but the 2nd week the fun and games begin…Whooooo Hooooooo…I see at least one good thumping of snow in the near future for Dec…..When January rolls around its lights out baby..January will be a prime time player just like the wildcats..Yep,a monster has been unleashed upon us..We will hit our winter snow totals early in January then the rest is icing on the cake…February will become to me known as Fabulous February when all is said and done for this month..Yep won’t be long when we hear those immortal words from rolo…OLD SCHOOL…Now back to your regular schedule programming..

  13. Marsha says:

    Oh I hope you aroe right need a good snow without the power going out….

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