Early Taste Of Winter Moves Away

Good Tuesday everyone. Our day is starting off with a bit of wintry weather across parts of the bluegrass state. This is only a small taste of what the old man has in store for our region as we head deeper into December. Once today’s winter weather moves on, its full steam ahead toward a dirty warm up by the coming weekend. But, what goes up must come down and that’s exactly what happens later next week.

Let’s talk about the short term before we get to the goodies for December. Morning rain and snow will quickly scoot to our east by midday. This may leave behind a light, slushy snow for a few spots. Temps will be close to the freezing mark across the north, so watch for some slick spots.

Temps will be very cold tonight with readings dropping into the low and middle 20s. Wednesday will be chilly with temps in the 40s. It’s from this point that temps start to take off. The 50s will be with us for the end of the week and readings make a run toward the low 60s early next week. That warm up will come with a lot of clouds and scattered showers.

Our jet stream becomes zonal this weekend as Pacific air floods the country. That doesn’t last long as a dip in the jet works in by the middle of next week. You can see how it all plays out on the GFS…

Warm ups that begin with rain usually do not last very long and it looks like that will be the case this go around. The trough for the middle of next week should be transient, but it sets the stage for a greater amplification shortly thereafter. That takes us right into the December 7th-14th time period I’m highlighting for a much larger amplification.

That lines up well with the pattern coming from the CFS model. Check out what a cold 10 day period leading up to Christmas this model is forecasting… 

For those flipping out over the mild up over the next week… chill out. This pattern is NOTHING like last winter and you will have a lot of cold and snow chances. Just remember… it’s STILL November! ;)

Have a great Tuesday and take care.


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9 Responses to Early Taste Of Winter Moves Away

  1. Andy Rose says:

    if cold rain is a small taste i dont want winter this yr

    • LD says:

      My thoughts exactly. I get that this is “only November”, but here was another mixed precipitation even that went full rain. Same as it ever was.

  2. BubbaG says:

    Yep, we are not off to a good start, since we got the usual “so cold it should snow rain”. Not a sign of a flake here in North Madison, but it probably fell a flake or two in the darkness….

    As mentioned already, I stick with the trends until an outlook and forecast actually pans out and NOT an ankle biter event. We have had plenty of those and lower. Results change trends and not outlooks or forecasts. I think Lucy might be getting plenty of football entertainment this winter.

    • Aaron C. says:

      Lucy might be giving the football entertainment this year—but not me. I’m not biting or commenting on any “potential” storm—instead, I will just sit back and watch, and won’t get excited until the snow is actually on the ground and we have an officially reported accumulation. :)

  3. Mae says:

    Don’t expect any snow myself. Last twelve years has done me in with winter. Wish it could be different, but it is what it is.

  4. WendyT says:

    Folks, it’s way too early to get negative. You know, it is still fall.

  5. The Juggernaut says:

    Did Chris ever put out his Winter forecast/outlook? I have been away from the interwebs for a while and I couldn’t keep up with the doings here.

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