Upcoming Mild Spell Won’t Last Long

Good Thursday everyone and thanks for checking in on KWC. We have another very cold and frosty start to the day across Kentucky. The much talked about mild spell is just about ready to kick in, but it’s days are numbered and that number continues to come down.

Low and mid 20s with a thick frost will greet folks out the door this morning. Sunny skies will boost our temps close to 50 degrees by the afternoon hours. This is a sign of things to come as we slowly crank thermometers up a little bit at a time over the weekend.

Friday will see highs warming into the mid and high 50s with dry weather holding on. A few more clouds will get in here Saturday and there could be a late day shower popping up. Temps will make a run toward 60 then and will likely hit the low 60s Sunday into Monday. An increase in clouds and scattered showers may act to keep thermometers from reaching those high numbers for some.

This brings us to Tuesday and that’s when a strong cold front looks to cross the state. The models are really speeding up the arrival of this front and that means one less day of the really mild temps. Showers and a rumble of thunder should sweep eastward during the day as gusty winds crank along and behind the boundary.

The GFS Ensemble Mean shows this faster movement…

The Canadian Model also supports the faster front…

There is likely to be a 20- 30 degree temp drop from one side of this front to the other. Gusty winds and chilly temps will then hang around for Wednesday and Thursday.

 As I’ve mentioned several times before, that shot of cold will move through pretty quickly as we await the next push of cold by late the following weekend into early the next week. This falls in the December 7th-14th time period I’ve been highlighting for much more of a wintry push of weather moving in at some point.

The European Model opens up the floodgates from Canada…

That’s still a long time off, but I do expect a push like that to take place at some point during the window I have been yapping about.

I will have another update late today. Have a good one and take care.


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26 Responses to Upcoming Mild Spell Won’t Last Long

  1. KRinRichmond says:

    Seems mother nature and you keep pushing winter farther and farther out. Next week, next week, next week, then it’s spring. Get on with it already!! Snow, snow, snow. Santa needs snow for that sleigh.

  2. bjenks says:

    WOW!!!! November 29th and winter is already not happening!!! It is still Fall guys give Mother Nature a month and at least lets get into winter before you start talking about the winter that never happened. Jan./Feb. will be one to remember for cold and snow. Thanks Chris for the update. Still looking for your winter outlook. Have a great day. GO CARDS!!!

    • Andy Rose says:

      winter look out is close to normal for temps and precip overall one month down another month up so on and so forth

      • bjenks says:

        Thanks Andy! As long as it is not like last winter I will take anything close to normal. Ankle biters and the fence seem to come in mine when I think normal.

      • Aaron C. says:

        Close to normal would be temps around 34 degrees, with 15-20 inches of snow for the winter. Given that if they were all “ankle biters,” you are looking at between 8 to 9 small snow events, once a week or so. If we had one large event of 12″ we could deal with the other 3 small ankle biters that would come on average around every 2 weeks. Looking at all the data, the updated data—-odds do not favor more than 25″ this winter, since back to back heavy snow winters have not occurred since 1916 and 1917, and 1917 and 1918.

        • Emerson Biggins says:

          Last year was not a heavy snow winter, so why would the odds not favor 25″ this winter? We usually don’t get that I understand but the premise of your argument is that last year was a heavy snow event winter.

        • Coffeelady says:

          Aaron, you forget the winters of 1977-78. We had a lot of snow on the ground in those two winters.

          • Aaron C. says:

            1977-1978 would have to be considered 1976-1977 and 1977-1978 for it to count as two winters. The top 10 snowiest winters in Kentucky do not include all of these four years (two winters) as making the top ten snowiest.

  3. Reeneyinky says:

    Maybe Chris should just forcast, “hazy, hot, and humid” from now to the end of February! Give the guy a break, after all, it’s “fun”. Some people take it personally that there’s no snow even though Winter starts the 21st of DECEMBER almost a month from today! We still appreciate the hard work…let’s not throw him under the bus! Go Cats!

  4. Joe T. says:

    Keep in mind Chris is saying nothing about snow. Even with this next push of cold air, the ingredients are not there for a snow event. Ready for a series of mild/wet followed by cold/dry weather events?? You better be……

  5. Andy Rose says:

    coldest temps this morning 15 degrees colder than yesterday but did not get snow looking frost that some got yesterday just garden variety

  6. Todd says:

    19 in Frankfort this morning with a little ice forming on the lake, that is cold even in January!

  7. WendyT says:

    A cold rain event for next week. YUCK !!!!!!

  8. Matthew says:

    Chris hope your cold pans out. I now that you have done fairly well so far this year. Seems that the warm-up you have been talking about the last few days is still on track and you have been talking this cold for December 7-14 for a while so I see your really not pushing that back much. Been nice and frosty here in the mornings and highs not all that high.

    I will say that I expect the after Christmas period to be real nice for winter (hope I am wrong). I like winter but my wife and I have and unexpected child coming. She does not want to miss much work because school lets out near her due date and thus not much missing would happen. That said, my luck seems to rub off on things like this so I could see this winter giving us some very (not so) nice weather. That should make for some missed school and push the last day back a few weeks and maybe into June. I fully expect a late April blizzard and delivery to coincide nicely. I should have to drive in it as well. Maybe 40-50 mph winds with snow rates so high you cannot see your nose. Oh, and after an inch of ice. I joke, but I really would not be surprised at all.

    Keep up the excellence on you site here. I love seeing these models and your thoughts on what may and may not happen. Really adds something to the weather for me.

  9. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks, Chris. Gonna enjoy the warmer temps, as my electric bill will probably have shock when the cold gets here again! ;)
    Have a GREAT Thursday, everyone!

  10. BengalFan says:

    The blog is for fun…So here is my weather forecast..high 50 and mid 60 till next tuesday.
    12/5 Wed high 40
    12/6 Thur: high 36
    12/7 Fri: high 38 cold showers
    12/8 Sat. high 33 flurries
    12/9 Sun. high 32
    12/10 Mon. high 42
    12/11 to 12/20 Highs 48-52…chance of some showers on the 15th/16th
    Then after the 20th swing back to a little colder, chance of flurries.

    My wish is for snow starting on the 13th through the 13th of March. Just for fun.

  11. rolo says:

    fact is Chris goes on what he sees, and fact is whjat he saw early DEC first few weeks not looking good. but MODELS never hold out as we know.

    yea number far as snow been colse to bove average last few years, but to me thats no WINTER, Winter is STORMS, REAL COLD some trhat are in their teens younger have never seen real cold.

    u know big storm then single digits etc for days and days. thats real winter.

    30,40s with couple spats off teens and 20 for highs is what u can expect AFTER we recieve rain and couple inches snow on backside.

    so yes the winter forcast that many have put out will be spot on. 15-20 inches snow with average temps.

  12. jeanette says:

    After last “winter” it seems to me that average temps and 15-20 inches of snow sounds pretty good. :)

  13. Neil says:

    If you’re looking for snow, just head out to CA and Mount Shasta. The forecast from today through Sunday is for 176″- 218″ of snow, doing the math, that’s 14.5 – 18 FEET of snow in 4 days at the summit!

  14. Dee says:

    Chris, I really do love you, but it is very unbecoming when you are on the defense as you were yesterday. Brush it off!!! :)

  15. Andy Rose says:

    Its funny how 1 weather outlet that i will not name was saying 35 degree highs for wendesday now are saying 42 lol

  16. Aaron C. says:

    Wonder if we can break the all-time driest snowfall winter ever, which was in 1936, which had 0.1″ of snow for the winter? Hmm… lol. It also featured the latest and probably only snowfall for that winter…all the way up into January, on the 31st.

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