Good Friday to one and all. November is wrapping up and we are ready to dive into the start of meteorological winter on Saturday. The first few days of December will be on the mild side across the bluegrass state, but things could be changing sooner rather than later.
Thanks to all those who played “What winter am I?”. The answer to that question… (insert drum roll)…. the winter of 1995/96. The mild numbers from my last post all came from that blockbuster winter across Kentucky and much of the eastern part of the country. This winter may or may not turn out anything like that one, but I did find a November correlation to that year. Lexington has had 19 days of 32 degrees or below this November and that’s the most since 1995 produced 20. If we look at the numbers since 1970… only 1995 and 1976 featured more November days below freezing.
I don’t know if any of that is a precursor of things to come this winter, but I don’t think you guys realize the amount of number crunching I actually do. (Cue the violin ;))
Speaking of numbers… they are going up over the next several days. Highs today will hit the 50s with a mix of sun and clouds. We will flirt with 60 Saturday under a partly cloudy sky. Moisture will increase by Sunday and this will lead to scattered showers that take us into early Monday. These show up well on the simulated NAM radar:
Temps during this time will likely warm into the low 60s, but clouds and showers may knock those down a bit for some areas.
A cold front enters the picture early Tuesday and this will bring a line of gusty showers across the state. Temps will come way down behind the front, but that won’t last long as it gets shoved through here pretty quickly. Why is that happening? Because the models are now speeding up the change to winter and slam another system in here by next Friday or Saturday.
The overall pattern is in the process of cleaning itself up. The west coast into the Gulf of Alaska looks to become MUCH more favorable in time. Take a look at the deep trough up there this weekend and how it gets replaced by a big ridge…
As that ridge balloons along the west coast, a deep trough is carved out across much of the country. That trough opens the floodgates allowing very cold air from Canada to dive our way. The new Canadian Model is also on board with that configuration by next weekend…
That falls toward the beginning of my December 7th-14 period of change. We’ll see how it all evolves in the coming days.
All of that may be a lead up toward some interesting weather just in time for Christmas. The CFS model says a White Christmas is possible to a lot of people across the country…
I will update things later today. Make it a great Friday and take care.