Monday Evening Update

Good Monday evening to one and all. Spring weather rolls on today across the bluegrass state with temps hitting the rare 70 degree mark across the bluegrass state. Snow and cold lovers continue to lose hope and the folks who love the warmth are breaking out the flip flops.

I’ve talked many times before how the weather in early December is in NO WAY indicative of how the winter as a whole will play out. The pattern is ready to undergo a big change over the next week and this takes us directly into the December 7th-14th time period you’re sick of hearing about on here. Sick of it or not… the pattern begins changing toward winter during that time.

The models have been all over the place with how and exactly when that change takes place. That is to be expected. The sad thing is some people will take whatever the last run of the GFS showed and run with it as the gospel. Truth be told, the model shows a different solution each time it runs. The other models are also showing some wild swings, but not to the extent of the GFS.

I did find two similar model solutions from the latest European and the 18z GFS for early next week. Let’s start with the European…

That’s a heck of a storm working right on top of us as it bombs out across the Great Lakes. You can see the change to winter surging in behind the storm by early Monday.

The 18z GFS run is similar, but is few hours slower…

Both models have been trending a bit farther eastward with the track of that particular storm. It would not surprise me to see the models start going toward more of a cutoff low scenario in the coming days. As always… we shall see,

But one thing is for sure… the pattern goes through a BIG change next week.

Enjoy the evening and take care.

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12 Responses to Monday Evening Update

  1. BubbaG says:

    CB is all in! I like it 🙂

    I wonder if the other mets follow suit, or hold their cards?

  2. Dawnp007 says:

    Does the cutoff he spoke about mean possibly no snow for central/eastern ky??? I’m map illiterate!!!!

  3. Dawnp007 says:

    Ok. Just what does a cut off low mean?

  4. tommy says:

    looks like a possible snow event here along the front range for later in the weekend. nws in boulder/pueblo is keeping an eye on this one.

  5. Chris Mercer says:

    We had similar early Decembers in 1982-1983 and 1984-1985.

    1982-1983 was a bust for winter. It was 70 on Christmas Day!

    1984-1985 really changed though. A top 10 coldest January in 1985!

    So, which one will this be?

    • BubbaG says:

      I do not recall two wimpy winters in a row, so betting on the cold version. If not, ALL bets are off if this winter is wimpy.

  6. alena says:

    It sure doesn’t look and feel like winter. The trees in my backyard are getting buds and tiny new leaves on them.

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