Good Monday evening to one and all. Spring weather rolls on today across the bluegrass state with temps hitting the rare 70 degree mark across the bluegrass state. Snow and cold lovers continue to lose hope and the folks who love the warmth are breaking out the flip flops.
I’ve talked many times before how the weather in early December is in NO WAY indicative of how the winter as a whole will play out. The pattern is ready to undergo a big change over the next week and this takes us directly into the December 7th-14th time period you’re sick of hearing about on here. Sick of it or not… the pattern begins changing toward winter during that time.
The models have been all over the place with how and exactly when that change takes place. That is to be expected. The sad thing is some people will take whatever the last run of the GFS showed and run with it as the gospel. Truth be told, the model shows a different solution each time it runs. The other models are also showing some wild swings, but not to the extent of the GFS.
I did find two similar model solutions from the latest European and the 18z GFS for early next week. Let’s start with the European…
That’s a heck of a storm working right on top of us as it bombs out across the Great Lakes. You can see the change to winter surging in behind the storm by early Monday.
The 18z GFS run is similar, but is few hours slower…
Both models have been trending a bit farther eastward with the track of that particular storm. It would not surprise me to see the models start going toward more of a cutoff low scenario in the coming days. As always… we shall see,
But one thing is for sure… the pattern goes through a BIG change next week.
Enjoy the evening and take care.