A Busy Pattern Setting Up

Good Tuesday, folks. We have a cold front working across the state today and this front will do more than usher in rain and cooler temps. It’s the first of many systems to impact our weather over the next few weeks as the pattern becomes very active and leads us into the start of winter.

Let’s break down the short term before getting to the big change.

- Showers will become widespread from west to east today into tonight. Locally heavy downpours will be a good bet and I can’t rule out a clap of thunder.

- Winds will become very gusty today and could top 30mph at times.

- Temps will spike into the 60s ahead of the front then fall quickly into the 40s once the boundary passes through this evening.

- Wednesday looks seasonally chilly with partly sunny skies. Some clouds will increase Thursday and a few sprinkles may be noted in the west and south.

That brings us to the weekend and a complicated scenario that will likely lead to quite a bit of rain around here. A boundary will work into the Ohio Valley late Friday and early Saturday and put the brakes on. This allows for waves of low pressure to work through this region. Each of those waves will give us rounds of rain and some thunder. It won’t  rain the entire weekend, but  I would keep the umbrella with me at all times.

The last in the series of lows is likely to be a strong system that works across our region from late Sunday through Monday or Tuesday. The timing of this is all over the place and that’s just how it is from almost a week out. Big model jumps are the name of the game.

The GFS and European Models develop a monster of a storm that cuts from the lower Mississippi Valley toward the Great Lakes. Both models essentially show severe weather ahead of this system with near blizzard conditions behind it. Both of those models are also hinting at the cutoff low idea I put forth yesterday. Where that storm tracks is still up in the air and won’t be known for several days. Here’s where the European takes the storm by late Tuesday…

The Canadian Model has abandoned the cutting storm in favor of a farther east system…

That’s a pretty wintry look for our region and the NOGAPS has joined in the farther east idea.

Regardless of which idea comes to pass… cold air sweeps in here behind the storm and this sets the ball rolling for winter to become established across most of the country for the middle and end of December.

I will give you another update later today. Have a great Tuesday and take care.


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34 Responses to A Busy Pattern Setting Up

  1. Mark says:

    Scattered showers this morning, including a few recorded lightning strikes near Hopkinsville KY. The main rain band is still west of the Mississippi River. Still very warm for this time of year.

  2. Mark says:

    The NWS radars at Paducah, Ft Campbell and Evansville remain scheduled for dual-pol upgrade starting in early January.

    http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/?n=dualpolupgrade

    They are the last NWS radars to be upgraded in our area.

  3. james says:

    Lucy’s dusting off the football.

  4. Cameron Fry says:

    I know this guy is in NC…but December is looking bad, folks. I don’t know if it’s time to push the panic button yet. Would be nice to get see some rays of hope on the horizon!

    http://www.examiner.com/article/warm-december-looking-likely

    • TONEY says:

      how can u justify a forecast for nc for a forecast in the ky area and besides folks, chris has not said that we would get cold temps the 7th through the 14th or did he say we would get snow, he only said that the period the 7th through the 14th would be a transition period and often times these periods bring lots of rain…..remember to read the blogs and try to read them more closer and under stand them….only saying

      • jeanette says:

        “I’ve been targeting the period of December 7th-14th for a big change in the pattern that will lead us into winter. There is little doubt the pattern is going to drastically change during this period and will likely set the stage for several shots of cold and snow threats for the middle and end of the month”

        This is what he said. I am not trying to refute his thinking, or say he is forecasting wrongly. The reason I posted below is because I am reading things that are different, and seeing things that are different now… and why others are saying it will be warm. Trying to understand what has occurred to change the thinking. I always hope for cold and snow, but am one that fully accepts that things don’t always happen the way Mets originally think they are going to.
        I am not into the whole competition thing– my Met is better than your Met crap. We are all human. Chris is good at what he does, I enjoy his knowledgeable perspective on the weather, and he is at the top of my list that I go to every day, but he is human. And things change.

        Weather has no master.

        What I was looking for was hope. Hope, and data other than what I was looking at that looks frustratingly warm for December.

        Please dont jump on people because you dont understand the context in which they are speaking, and instead want to be someone’s bodyguard. Besides, Chris can hold his own.

        • Tyler says:

          I believe some of the met are changing their thinking to warm, because the latest PNA values are forecast to stay negative. We need a positive shift in order to get the vortex in Alaska to break down. If this doesn’t happen it’s going to be really hard to get any kind of sustained cold in the plains and east!

        • TONEY says:

          who r u aiming your comments at? unless you r commenting as cameron fry, i have no idea what in the world u r talking about….i was not jumping on anybody especially u jeanette so i do not know what the deal is but stay off my case…..this is a weather blog not a a place to get angry.

  5. rolo says:

    the BIG STORM start iof next week as USUAL a LAKE CUTTER or close to it.

    for those u wanting a BIG ONE that a bad sign as for YEARS the BIG DADDYS are either to fur west or just to fur S and east.

    we will see but Im seeing a MILD winter snow wise with rainy/mixc to flurries slight snow as usual. then warm right back up next day.

    a REAL WINTER used to be rain to snow temps in teens to 0-5 bove for days and sdays. if ur say junior/sen in higfh school or younger YOU HAVE NEVER saw a REAL WINTER.

  6. jeanette says:

    What happened to the 7th-14th dates for a temp-flip?
    Everything I am seeing/reading looks like a warm December… is there something I am missing? :/

    I hate warm Decembers. Come on winter!! :D

  7. Dawnp007 says:

    I so want my 10 yr. old twins to see a BIG snow!!!! Ugh. I hate waiting!!!!

  8. Mark II says:

    My message to Old Man Winter – Fool me once, shame on you, Fool me 32 times, shame on me.

    • Aaron C. says:

      LOL 32 times. Great number to pull out of thin air. The randomness of it is what makes it so funny.

      • Aaron C. says:

        That and 32 degrees being the freezing point—yes….it gets funnier the more you think about it. Classic irony man. I gotta steal that one.

  9. Jeff Hamlin says:

    I say in regards to the weather, “que sera, sera” and will simply do my best to prepare for it. :)

  10. Emerson Biggins says:

    I have never met so many Debbie Downers in my life. It’s December 4th.

    • WendyT says:

      Amen! CB never said it was gonna snow the 7th-14th. He just said he felt the current pattern was gonna change, which it needs to if we hope to get snow. I think it will be the first of the year before we get anything. Ground is too warm now and nothing will stick if we did.

      • Cameron Fry says:

        True, it is only December 4. However, this month looks like it’s a ‘punt’ situation, which leaves only two months of meteorlogical winter left for something to happen. Can’t blame people for being skeptical after the mistery of last winter. Common denominator…is we all need to apply patience and live in the context of pleasant realism.

        • Emerson Biggins says:

          Punt, it’s 4 days into the month. Weather and the models predicting them change every day, we aren’t even in “winter” yet. We are in KY which isn’t known for brutal winters, kind of like UK football not being known for a powerhouse program, but every once in a while it happens, winning seasons and wintry winters. Lets give it time. CB’s on it, he’s seeing a pattern change, lets see what happens. It’s first down we don’t have to punt yet.

  11. Todd says:

    You gotta give Chris credit, most mets around these parts will never give you anything past a couple of days weather wise, Chris is the only one who will look down the road and throw out their what he thinks, I love that about him, KY weather changes daily this time of year, we must be patient, just all cats fans must be this year years youngsters, winter will show up and the young CATS will to, GO BIG BLUE! & Chris B. too :)

  12. BubbaG says:

    I am skeptical, but CB did say the change window could be to the 14th. Other mets are also mentioning some form of temp drop.

    My concern though is CB continues to describe changes as wintry- in the winter. That is ironic and something expected to contrast in another season and not winter. Ironic. I know what he means, but still seems odd to describe winter as wintry. Just sayin’.

  13. Brandon says:

    Don’t worry guys, I’m sure this warmth is here only because the NAO being positive, it looks like NAO is about to drop, and it should get colder. As I remember the NAO was positive most of last winter.
    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif

  14. Tyler says:

    for what its worth the 18z GFS bring the dec. 10th storm back south and gives the ohio valley a chance of snow again! of course its a rain, rain, rain, rain to snow event!!!

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