Good Tuesday, folks. We have a cold front working across the state today and this front will do more than usher in rain and cooler temps. It’s the first of many systems to impact our weather over the next few weeks as the pattern becomes very active and leads us into the start of winter.
Let’s break down the short term before getting to the big change.
- Showers will become widespread from west to east today into tonight. Locally heavy downpours will be a good bet and I can’t rule out a clap of thunder.
- Winds will become very gusty today and could top 30mph at times.
- Temps will spike into the 60s ahead of the front then fall quickly into the 40s once the boundary passes through this evening.
- Wednesday looks seasonally chilly with partly sunny skies. Some clouds will increase Thursday and a few sprinkles may be noted in the west and south.
That brings us to the weekend and a complicated scenario that will likely lead to quite a bit of rain around here. A boundary will work into the Ohio Valley late Friday and early Saturday and put the brakes on. This allows for waves of low pressure to work through this region. Each of those waves will give us rounds of rain and some thunder. It won’t rain the entire weekend, but I would keep the umbrella with me at all times.
The last in the series of lows is likely to be a strong system that works across our region from late Sunday through Monday or Tuesday. The timing of this is all over the place and that’s just how it is from almost a week out. Big model jumps are the name of the game.
The GFS and European Models develop a monster of a storm that cuts from the lower Mississippi Valley toward the Great Lakes. Both models essentially show severe weather ahead of this system with near blizzard conditions behind it. Both of those models are also hinting at the cutoff low idea I put forth yesterday. Where that storm tracks is still up in the air and won’t be known for several days. Here’s where the European takes the storm by late Tuesday…
The Canadian Model has abandoned the cutting storm in favor of a farther east system…
That’s a pretty wintry look for our region and the NOGAPS has joined in the farther east idea.
Regardless of which idea comes to pass… cold air sweeps in here behind the storm and this sets the ball rolling for winter to become established across most of the country for the middle and end of December.
I will give you another update later today. Have a great Tuesday and take care.