Update On The Change Ahead

Good Tuesday evening, gang. A strong cold front is now sweeping across the state and this is leading to showers and some thunder. Winds are gusting up as temps take a dive behind the boundary. All of this leads us into a very active pattern and the transition into winter starting next week.

The models continue to be all over the place with how to handle a stalled out front and a series of lows moving across the region this weekend. I said several days ago they wouldn’t get a handle on it until we got within two or three days. That’s exactly what will happen because EVERY model shows something different from its last run.

It looks like a few waves of low pressure will work across the region this weekend with rounds of rain. Some of that could be locally heavy. The last in the lows is likely to crank up and become the strongest of the bunch. That low continues to trend farther east on the models. The European Model:

The GFS has also shifted east with the 18z run…

To put the GFS shift in perspective, the prior run of that model had us in the 60s with thunderstorms on Monday. Moral of the story is you can’t take one run of any model and make a forecast from it. The latest GFS Ensembles mean went colder and east as well…

Regardless… do you see the cold air diving in behind each of those models? It really doesn’t matter as to what track that storm takes… it’s going to get much colder next week as the overall weather pattern goes toward winter.

I don’t see how anyone could question this pattern change. It will look NOTHING like the pattern of this week and is one that will usher in winter for the middle and end of the month.

And to clear something up… I don’t ready any other blogs or check out any other forecasts. I just don’t and never have. It’s not my style to worry about what other tv people or private weather people are saying. The only way I know what people are saying is by what you guys leave in the comments.

I will have a full update later tonight. Have a great evening and take care.


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18 Responses to Update On The Change Ahead

  1. Coffeady says:

    Thanks, Chris. Right now we are still on the warm side of the front. I think other weather guys check to see what you are saying.

  2. Tyler says:

    yes and we will likely be on the warm side of that from when it happens. But there is a possibility to end on the snowier side as well…….but the cold air looks pretty definite!

  3. Glenn Pence says:

    Chris,
    Please never concern yourself with the words of others:)
    Weather is very difficult to predict, due to the ever changing model runs & wanted various pieces of conflicting data…
    I’ve followed you since the GREAT Ice Storm, a few years ago, and have you to be very forth-right and extremely truthful. Additionally, I sincerely appreciate your ability to bring a very difficult subject into a perspective that those of us who do not have a concentration in Meteorology can easily understand..For this, I am grateful and find myself better educated

  4. Weatherdadof2 says:

    Chris, we really appreciate your effort in accomplishng your job with excellence. No one gets them all 100% perfect every time, but we know that you’ll be informing us of trends, patterns, threats, and other interesting facts as we go through this winter. Keep up the good work! Many thanks from Laurel County.

  5. feederband says:

    Chris, your forecasts have been really consistent and I read this page daily, along with other weather sites. Keep up the great, hard work.

  6. JJTeach says:

    Can’t wait to hear your latest thoughts Chris!! I am excited about where the pattern is going for the 2nd half of the month. On top of that, of course I would love to see the models shift even further east and slam us with some fun and games. If we don’t get an ounce of that with this one, hopefully we’ll luck out more toward Christmas ;) Bring on Winter!!!!

  7. BubbaG says:

    No doubt it will get colder. I think the issue is will KY be fence central again this winter, save the usual 1″ to 2″ events we get. Not even enough to make mini-me snowmen. Getting our snow totals via these little events is IMO worse than cold rain.

  8. Chris Mercer says:

    Yes, the temp dropped from 62 at 5:30 to 47 at 9:00 here In Lawrenceburg. 47, at 9:00 P.M. in December? Nice to see October return. How about some winter?

  9. alena says:

    Chris your blog is the only weather report I look at or listen to and I have found you to be right at least 99% of the time.As for big snows, they are pretty while falling, but 2 or 3 feet of snow is not so pretty after a few days. It gets dirty and ugly. A good 4-6 in snow to cover the ground for a day or so would be all I need to make me happy.

    • BubbaG says:

      though not a big snow, one of the best was when we had a little rain, then a little ice and the rest was about six inches of snow. It was PERFECT for sleigh riding and innertubes. The ice base kept the snow around and maintained a nice pack for fun. Snowballs were possible too :)

      That was about seven years ago or so…. North Madison has not had a snow above six inches since 1998, but a snow less than ten is manageable.

    • MikeM says:

      I’ve seen 2 feet of snow twice. Once in January of 1997 during the infamous Brian Collins dusting and once snowskiing in Colorado. I’m ready to see it again. Last years parade of 1-2 inchers wore me thin. They put down the same amount of salt for 1 inch or 3 feet. I hate salt.

  10. Todd says:

    I think a lot of the snow fans on here, especially the older ones associate big snows with their youth, because they seem to be something of the past, my best sledding days down a steep hill are probably over at this point of my life but a good snow ball fight might be fun! Keep the faith snow lovers!

  11. Ready4Snow says:

    Artic air setting up shop in the northern united states over time with waves of precipitation coming along for the ride..Yup,looks like a pattern change to me.. Keep your fingers crossed people…After this current warm up should see an active period for the rest of Dec. with a decent shot at something wintry…After all that is all we can ask for is at least a decent shot..

    • Mark says:

      It keeps getting more and more brutal in Alaska/Canada.

      Fairbanks Alaska: High of minus 30, low of minus 40 (just missing the record low of -43). Normals for Fairbanks this time of year: High of 6 above, low -11.

      Time will tell how much of a taste of this cold we will get.

  12. Cameron Fry says:

    We’re all grateful for all your work, CB! Keep up the great work/what you do best ;)

  13. Shawn says:

    I use to follow Bill Meck’s blog thinking I was getting cutting edge info. I realized Bill really doesn’t have the time to dedicate to sharing what he knows in detail. So I was really excited that I found your efforts here. The best part was getting you back in Lex!

  14. TONEY says:

    u do a great job chris….never have doubted u even when u were in huntington, wva. only thing i hate is that i wish chris had stayed at wsaz long enough for tony c. to retire and chris could have taken over his spot but i understand when oppurtunity kncks u have to answer the door. to all the people on lexington and other areas all across the bluegrass state….take care of your weather man…….there is not many like him and if there is they r few and far in between. your blog is the last thing i read before i go to bed and the 1st thing i read when i get out of bed. i would not mind some rain this week cause it is pretty dry even if it does come on the weekend and besides you have to have plenty of water in the ground to get a good hard freeze….thank you for your time

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