Wet Weather Ushers In The Start To Winter

Good Thursday everyone and thanks for making KWC a part of your day. We are entering a very wet pattern over the next several days and that gets the change to winter off and running. The drops will move in later today and continue on and off through the upcoming weekend. Then the bottom falls out.

Light rain will break out this afternoon across southern Kentucky and this will slowly lift northward into the evening hours. This may impact the Lexington Christmas Parade. Your friendly weatherdude will be walking in it, so give me a shout if you’re down there.

Rounds of showers and some thunder will be with us from Thursday night through Sunday. It’s not going to rain the entire time, but some locally heavy rainfall will be possible. This is in response to a stalled out front across the Ohio Valley that features waves of low pressure working along it.

The strongest low sweeps across the region by Sunday night and this will drag a cold front across the state. Temps will drop by nearly 30 degrees in a matter of hours as this front passes. Rain will make the transition to a period of light snow and snow showers during the day. Here’s the timeline from the GFS…

The GFS Ensemble Mean supports the rapid temp drop and light snow/snow shower threat…

No wonder the bottom falls out of the thermometer, check out how deep that trough is…

A few flurries will linger into Tuesday with lows in the low 20s and highs in the 30s.

This is the pattern and time period I’ve been yapping about for the past few weeks. This takes us into the start of winter and the pattern only grows colder and snowier from there. The second half of December has a real chance to be special across much of the country and every medium range model is on board with this.

For fun… watch the deep freeze settle into the country over the next few weeks…

Those are the numbers from one of the latest GFS ensemble runs. You’re seeing the temp departures for those 5 day periods… in celsius. That, my friends, is one cold look.

I will give you another update later… have a great day and take care.


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34 Responses to Wet Weather Ushers In The Start To Winter

  1. Jeff Hamlin says:

    is this thing working?

  2. KC says:

    I’m already dreaming of a White Christmas! Thanks, Chris for this weather blog. I don’t post often but I read every day.

  3. bjenks says:

    Thanks CB for the update. Just read over a few posts from early Wed. and people who don’t really follow and understand the weather just don’t get it. Last year was a bust for not only CB, but for 90% of the mets out there. Everyone was calling for an above avg. snowy winter and we get no snow with warm weather. Last year is NOT this year and all the indicies are pointing toward a very COLD winter. Jan/Feb may go down as one of the top ten coldest. Throw in a few Low pressure systems riding up the west side of the Apps and KY will get the snow. Winter is on it’s way. Buckle up as it will be a wild ride. Have a great Thursday everyone!
    THINK SNOW!

    • tornadolarkin says:

      I completely agree with your statement. It frustrates me to no end when people on here comment with no meteorological research into what they’re commenting about. I’m only an amateur met but last winter was a huge bust for me too. CB is doing a great job, and I completely agree with his idea that the second half of December will bring snow, the pattern favors it significantly. BOTS!!!!!

      • BubbaG says:

        CB was down and out and even came across like some of us do in his posts- THAT is bad. Bummer winter for the most part.

        At least in theory, this winter for snow has nowhere to go but up :)

    • tornadolarkin says:

      And I completely agree with you that this winter will be very cold. Not Only are recent induce pointing to it, indices for a while have been. And with a weak el nino that is nearly neutral, we could be in for some good snows too.

  4. BubbaG says:

    We have had plenty of cold winters over the past fourteen years, but what will make this any different than those. Central Kentucky has the uncanny knack for being the transition/fence for significant winter events. 90% rain and then 10% snow is the usual mix. The only exception being clippers and those were the events in the past fourteen years that busted 5″ of snow.

    What might be different this seasonal year to where we get what Rolo likes to call, “old school” events? From a result standpoint, the big snow d-word is very real for central Kentucky.

  5. Mark II says:

    I just hope this winter has some sustained cold periods. The 2 days of cold and 7 days of warmer temps rotation is really irritating.

    • LD says:

      Agreed. The real annoyance in that comes from the times where we do get enough snow for at least ground cover, only to have it completely melted away in a couple hours the next morning.

      • BengalFan says:

        I agree, but as many has said ,,this is ky winter..not up east (or wherever it snows alot these days).

        • LD says:

          Yes, but this wasn’t always the case in KY (at least in the nothern half of the state). Up until the last decade or so, it was more common than not to have at least enough ground cover from snow for sustained periods of time. In other words, when it snowed, you looked at snow for at least a few days in a row afterward. Even when the temperatures were causing snow to melt, it did so at a much slower rate than it does today.

  6. BengalFan says:

    QUESTION FOR TODAY?

    Just listened to news report about the Lowest sea level in the Arctic. (I have no idea if it is natural process or its a GW thing, but either way, HOW WILL it AFFECT NORTH AMERICA WINTER WEATHER?

  7. Reeneyinky says:

    I believe that the earth is constantly changing and goes through phases. Is Global Warming a “truth” or just a phase the earth is going through? Thanks, Chris…I read several times a day to catch any updates! Big “junkie” here! We appreciate all the time it takes to keep the Blog rolling…maybe this will be “The Winter to Remember”! Have a blessed day!

  8. Coffeelady says:

    Thanks, Chris. There is already a chill in the air this morning, and it is a damp chill. You can feel it in the air, as well,. Of course, being in southern KY, we are already seeing the clouds thicken and it is already about 90% overcast here. guess we will be the first to see the raindrops, as well. Stay dry, and have a good time in the parade! Have a great Thursday, everyone!

  9. Rickie says:

    Love the blog, I check in twice a day and if we have active weather going on I tune in and leave it there. On a funny note, Starting about two years ago my family would call me and ask me what Chris was saying about the weather. Then one day my grandson told my husband, Nana’s got a boyfriend! With a serious face and voice he said, Oh yeah and who is that… My grandson started laughing and said Chris Bailey…. So we don’t even say what is Chris saying about the weather no more, they ask what is your boyfriend saying…My daughter’s tunes in about as often as I do. We all take you serious and appreciate your extra work. Thanks! Have a good day..

  10. Pamela Harris says:

    Wow, sounds good for my good buddies in Kentucky! Any chance that this will make its way toward Richmond Va?

  11. james says:

    Trying to look at the 12z GFS, but the web site is down.

  12. Todd says:

    NOAA is calling for sprinkles or maybe a few flurries Monday nite? Chris has been saying light snow or snow showers will fall after the rain! I know that is splitting hairs but I guess will shall see who’s right in this first shot of a little snow for Central KY! It is December 6th and haven’t seen a snowflake in Frankfort Yet!

  13. MarkLex says:

    You know – last winter (March) Lexington had almost five inches of snow (or maybe it was five inches) I don’t remember. But it was beautiful at my house. I think it was the only decent snow we had, but it wasn’t snowless.

  14. Kelly in Louisville says:

    I’m hoping Chris is right…so far The Weather Channel isn’t biting with highs next week near 60 and lows in the 40′s. Weather Underground has Louisville in the mid 60′s several days next week.

  15. Cameron Fry says:

    Great news! Even if KY doesn’t luck out on the winter precip, things are heading in the right direction! Plenty of reason for optimism!

  16. Russ says:

    Yes, plenty of reason of optimism. Once again, the cold is delayed by another week. Sound familiar? It should, because it was the same sad story last Winter. Any cold shot will be transient and nothing long term. I’m sorry you guys pining away for the famous winter of 77-78 will be waiting, much like Linus waited on the great pumpkin.

    • Marsha says:

      Sorry but I will not give up on the cold until mr bailey said its delayed…

    • Chris Bailey says:

      I would love to hear how the change to cold has been delayed another week? Please explain.

      • BubbaG says:

        Is this the real deal CB?

        If those temps are Celsius, they are actually not super cold, since 0 C is 32 F. They would be REAL cold if Fahrenheit :) -1 C actually gets you below freezing at 30 degrees (rounding).

        I know what you meant, but it came across at first to me that Celsius numbers are colder than Fahrenheit. The logic that you are a met (a good one too) made me review my thought ;)

  17. honestabe says:

    Man i may feel like the lone ranger on here…but I happen to like to read this site to find out how long it will stay warm!! You see I have lived long enough to get all the 22 inch dustings and no power for days(’98) snow storms to last a life time. I may be the only one, but I happen to like short warm winters like last season. Get real and quit wishing misery on the rest of the Kentucky…lol

    • BubbaG says:

      My kids are now teenagers, so unlike the old days when snow was fun (we did not have all the fun gadgets like now), they are now past it. 1″ of snow makes them happy, but only since they get to skip school ;) As a result, I agree with your perspective now, since big snow has no “wow” fun factor to them. It is now just a bunch of heavy stuff for me to clear from a big driveway that goes up a hill.

      Actually- the boys can do the snow removal, so no harm no foul :)

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