A Big Temp Plunge On The Way

Good Saturday everyone. Our wet weekend rolls on across the commonwealth of Kentucky and this damp weather is something we have to go through to get to winter. Almost all of the years I looked that started December on a warm note had to get wet before they got cold and white. That concept looks to be doing its thing right now.

Occasional showers and some thunderstorms will continue to roll across the state today into Sunday. Heavy downpours will be a good bet. Some areas have picked up close to 2″ of rain and many may get another inch or two before all is said and done.

Back around Thanksgiving, I targeted December 7th-14th as the time frame we started to make the transition into winter. That transition is underway now with the rain and now we await the change too much colder temps and that comes on Monday. Take a look at how temps drop some 30 degrees in a few hours…

Readings will basically drop from 60 degrees at midnight to the 30s by Monday afternoon. Winds are going to crank up during this temp tank.

The cold front will have a wave of low pressure along it as it works eastward. The back edge of the precipitation shield will likely end as a period of light snow for some. The GFS shows the quick transition…

The NAM is evening spitting out some light accumulation across eastern Kentucky. I just don’t see this system producing much in the way of accumulating flakes around here. Stranger things have happened, I suppose.

Again… this week looks to do exactly what we said it would do… be the transition period into winter. That said, there have been several model runs of late that cook up a big storm next weekend. The Canadian is doing just that…

We will have to wait and see about that one. I don’t trust any model with properly handling a piece of energy ejecting out of the southwest. Hence the wild swings many of them are displaying right now.

More updates come your way later today. Make it wonderful Saturday and take care.

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12 Responses to A Big Temp Plunge On The Way

  1. Danny says:

    Temps crash on Monday stay below normal for a couple of days and then right back to average maybe a degree or two above starting around Friday. No snow this week.

  2. rolo says:

    that CANDIAN MOIDEL says OPLD SCHOOL, to u newbies that type track we need of a low to get a BIG DADDY round here.

  3. Tominlou says:

    Sorry, but this “Winter Transition” that’s been preached for weeks seems to be a cold day or two and then a return to same old, same old. Maybe January!

  4. Coffeady says:

    Thanks, Chris. Looking forward to some rain as we could really use it around here. Have a great Saturday, everyone.

  5. MikeM says:

    We got some nice rain in Woodford County yesterday. As for snow Chris says next week. Thats the blog forecast I’ve come to know and love, the seven days away phenomenom.

  6. Andy Rose says:

    The forecast that WKYT is giving doesn’t look any different than what we have already had so far other than rain.

  7. Reeneyinky says:

    Poor Chris! Good thing that the “firing squads” are no longer used! Some of us appreciate your hard work and the Blog…I still think that your forecasting will “shut the mouths” of the non-believers! Have a great Saturday!

  8. bjenks says:

    Thanks CB for all you do.
    You stated a couple of weeks ago that the 7th – 14th would be messy with possible snow with the cold air flowing down from Canada. The transition has begun, unlike last winter.. We will see are normal warm ups, but I feel Jan/Feb will be the ones we remember. Any SNOW IN DECEMBER is bonus snow. I also like the looks of the Canadian model above. A western apps track will provide all of Kentucky with a decent SNOW. Bonus snow at that. Have a great day.

  9. Danny says:

    This is why I’m not a big fan of long term forecasting there are way to many if’s and’s but’s this and that’s. I remember reading something earlier in November stating that a computer model had put a snowcover starting first week of December from the Tennessee, Ky border and points north. That’s definetly not going to happen. Rex block omega this positive that negative pna, AO-NO. We always need this to happen and that to occur and the stars must align with the moon. Oh well it is what it is.

  10. BubbaG says:

    A big difference in CB posting his outlook thoughts and a forecast. Some folks need to appreciate that. If people just want forecasts, this is not the place for it since can create false expectations. Outlook thoughts are not forecasts.

  11. pattyversailles says:

    Hi all! I’m looking forward to a little colder weather around here. Even if we don’t see a lot of snow it’ll feel more like this Blessed season, but a few flakes flying around wouldn’t hurt either. Thanks Chris.

  12. KRinRichmond says:

    I do like not having to dress like an Eskimo when I go out Christmas shopping. Having to lug all that winter apparel around sure is a pain. It is bit warm though for December. Winter will show up at some point. Cold air doesn’t constitute winter. We need some winter precip to go along.

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