A Lot Of Water Before Some Winter

Good Sunday everyone. Our wet pattern rolls on with additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms on the way. We have a lot more water to go through before we get to some winter later Monday and Tuesday. A 20-30 degree temp drop will buffer the two.

A stalled out front lifts back to the north today as low pressure works across the Ohio Valley. Showers and thunderstorms will be on and off all day long and locally heavy rain is a good bet. Temps today will soar into the low 60s for many areas.

A strong cold front works eastward later tonight and early Monday. A wave of low pressure will be working along this front and that means we start the day with more heavy rain. An additional 1″-2″ of rain is likely today through Monday for many areas of the state.

Much colder air works in quickly behind the front as temps fall into the 30s. Rain will mix with and change to a period of light snow in the west early and that transition will work eastward throughout the day. Here’s the GFS take on it…

One trend in the models of late is to keep the chance for some flakes flying into Tuesday across central and eastern Kentucky.

From a snow perspective, this is not a very big deal. There is the chance we can squeeze out a light accumulation on grassy and elevated surfaces out of all this. The chance isn’t very high, but here’s a set of maps showing the possibility…

Monday and Monday Evening

Monday Night and Tuesday Morning

I’m not sold on very much at all sticking, but we shall see.

Our transition week into winter is off and running and behaving according to plan. Some monster storms are on the table for the central and eastern sections of the country from next weekend through Christmas. I will touch on that part of the equation later today.

Make it a great Sunday and take care.


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35 Responses to A Lot Of Water Before Some Winter

  1. Snowlady says:

    Here’s another Christmas video for you Chris!

  2. Mark says:

    T-storms are racing across western parts of KY and TN this morning. SPC has a slight chance of severe t-storms for far western KY/TN, including perhaps a widely isolated twister. Nothing like the tornado outbreaks of Feb 29 and March 2 though.

    • Mark says:

      NWS Paducah has link about winter tornadoes:

      http://www.crh.noaa.gov/pah/?n=wintertimetornadoes

      IIRC, Kentucky climatology has recorded tornadoes up to F3/EF3 intensity in December, up to F4/EF4 in November, January, February and of course during the spring months. This compares to July, Aug and Sept having no twisters stronger than F2/EF2, at least in recorded history. So we can’t totally let down our guard this time of year.

  3. Mark says:

    Here’s my contribution of Xmas music :)

    • Mama-cooked-the-breakfast-with-no-hog says:

      Dr. Demento actually, but I still miss hearing that on the radio. Two radio stations playing 24/7 Christmas music and I still haven’t heard it in years.

  4. Kelly in Louisville says:

    Okay, enough on the rain as its turned my back yard into a sea of mud and now I have to take my dogs potty out front. Nice cool down for Onday and Tuesday but mid 50′s return by Thursday with low 60′s for Saturday. Read yesterday that Louisville is a whopping 18.1 degrees above normal for the month. Sure seems like last year…at least it keepsy LG&E bill low.

    • Lightsout says:

      I remember when my entire utility bill (electric, water, sewer) for two adults was cheaper than just my mom’s water bill up in Louisville. Gotta love a non-profit utility. #90s nostalgia

  5. Andy Rose says:

    The fog this morning is putting down more moisture than any rain we have had this weekend in Knox County but looking at the radar that may change

  6. Mark II says:

    I’m not sure how this is a transition week into winter when we have two coolish days forcasted and then back into the upper 50s near 60. More like a transition into spring.

    Seems more like laying out weather than winter weather.

    • Kelly in Louisville says:

      My 10 day forecast has only 3 nights with below freezing temps and even then they aren’t supposed to drop below 30 degrees.

  7. KP says:

    Thunder in Bourbon County. My usual complaining about all the mud created by rain in December has been falling on deaf ears. I’d much rather have frozen ground than the holes created by our horses.

    Also, the little tunnels made by the moles are crazy. Those critters have created an amazing highway system through my front year.

    C’mon frozen ground!!! :)

    PS: Gig ‘em, Aggies. This Texan is very proud of the latest Heisman winner.

    • WendyT says:

      I hear ya. Nothing worse than the horses making deep holes in the mud and then it freezes and they can’t walk on it.

  8. BubbaG says:

    Bah, cold weather without snow is like spaghetti without sauce.

  9. bjenks says:

    Thanks for the update Chris….Winter is still several days away and we have a shot of seeing a little snow before then. Winter will be here in full force, but it won’t happen until Jan/Feb. This transition into winter will continue the rest of this month with up and down temps. Anyone thinking this winter will be like last will be surprised!
    Have a great Sunday everyone.

    • Pierce says:

      I actually think that we’ll see our first winter storm before January. The snowpack to our north is on the increase and will continue to increase. Also, the south branch of the jet stream will be getting pretty active soon, so I think it’s a definite possibility! I could be wrong, however.

  10. Joey Wilson says:

    Long range maps showing our first real shot at snow is about a week before Christmas. Storms before that will go to our north and west and bring us more rain.

  11. Todd says:

    This weeks transition to winter should be called a brush with almost winter, the change might come next week?? We shall see!

  12. bjenks says:

    The EURO has a flat out winter storm for KY on the 18th. Wishful thinking 9 days out.

    • Jamie says:

      Lucy, set the football!!

      • Kelly in Louisville says:

        My prediction…rain, with highs in the 50′s followed by a cold front which drops temps into the 30′s on the 19th but warms back to the mid 50′s by the 21st as our next rain system moves in with a nice warmup into the low 60′s a few days before Christmas…repeat till middle of February.

      • BubbaG says:

        Unless a clipper, events either miss central KY completely, or 90% of the precipitation is gone before it gets cold enough to snow.

        Spaghetti with no sauce. Bleh.

  13. Lincoln says:

    I’m calling a white christmas, we will all get one inch. Enjoy!!

  14. Andy Rose says:

    still very little rain outside

  15. Jason says:

    KY, where winter storms are always a week away!

    • Kelly in Louisville says:

      Thinking the same thing as I lay here in shorts watching football on the second weekend of December. If it hasn’t snowed at least once by the end of the month, just go ahead and make it spring and bring on summer.

    • Mike M says:

      The seven day away phenomenon has been as much a part of the blog for the past 10-12 years as the snow dome. Anything 7 days out is only a tease.

  16. Mark says:

    SPC has issued a tornado watch for far western KY/TN. A few tornado warnings/severe t-storm warnings have already gone out for northern Arkansas.

    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0677.html

  17. Pierce says:

    This winter storm the Euro is calling out is actually quite possible. With the cold air in Canada and the snow pack increasing to our north, the Euro may be onto something. Also, the southern branch of the jet stream looks to be kicking into gear soon too. And remember, the Euro was on of the first to catch on to Sandy and it might catch onto this too. Who knows, but I think it’s possible.

  18. rakat says:

    One of the mets at WSAZ is on the same bandwagon that you are on, Chris. He feels the second half of December will be colder and such.

  19. Russ says:

    Frustrating. Watched the Bengals hand deliver a victory to Dallas. Took a walk in the springtime air, with Christmas decorations up and more false hope that winter will be on the way.

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