Tracking Storms of All Kinds

Good Sunday evening. Your friendly weatherdude is in a bad sports mood this evening, so I don’t know what I will be able to give you guys with this update. Let’s take it for a spin and see what happens. Maybe another obscure Christmas classic will brighten my mood. :)

The first item for discussion is the possibility of thunderstorms this evening and overnight. A TORNADO WATCH is out until 9pm central time for western Kentucky. Here’s the watch outline and the latest warnings…

Follow me on twitter for the latest warnings and information on those storms: @kentuckyweather

This action is ahead of a powerful front that’s moving in from the west. This will drop our temps from the current 60s to the 30s by later Monday afternoon and evening. The models still like a change to a period of light snow for some…

GFS

Some lingering flurries will hang around into Tuesday morning with highs in the 30s. Again… I am NOT expecting much, if any, accumulation.

There’s a system the models are now blowing up across the southeast and it gets THISCLOSE to bringing snow to far southeastern Kentucky on Wednesday. This storm wasn’t on the models a few days ago and really shows you how much this pattern has changed and is a signal of a stormy period ahead.

The next system to impact our weather comes late Friday into Saturday. This comes from energy ejecting out of the southwestern states and the models are terrible in handling those things. The trend on the GFS is to go much colder this weekend than what it had been showing. It now takes the low toward the northern Ohio Valley with cold air rapidly diving in here behind it and actually shows some snow before next weekend is finished.

There is a huge block developing across eastern Canada into Greenland. Storms rarely cut toward a block and usually get shunted southward. I would bet the models trend south with this weekend storm in the coming days.

The European is the model that REALLY struggles with these systems coming from the southwest. It usually is too slow in ejecting the energy eastward and this leads to phasing issues. That looks to be happening with the weekend storm…

Take a look at what follows that storm up early the following week. While I do NOT think the European is correct in its placement or timing.. it’s giving us one heck of a signal of a Ohio Valley winter storm. The model is not alone in showing a signal for that time period and the pattern favors something big cranking up that week. As a matter of fact… the pattern I’m reading has the potential for an extreme event across the eastern half of the country at some point before or around Christmas.

Speaking of Christmas. Let’s enjoy another obscure Christmas classic…

Don’t tell anyone, but I really like that song. :) Enjoy your evening and take care.


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38 Responses to Tracking Storms of All Kinds

  1. Todd says:

    It is funny how miss hall, Chris baileys backup goes on Facebook and says no chance of snow on Monday while her boss Chris still says a chance of snow for Monday nite! Is she trying to upstage her boss!

    • Andy Rose says:

      Thats my point WKYT forecast doesn’t match what Chris puts on here

    • Marsha says:

      Sorry but miss hall did say at 6 we might see a little snow just not much just like chris said,Chris just keep up the good work you put into this blog and these people that come on here are here for I have no idea why they read your blog all they do is put you down,sorry but that is just silly go somewhere else if you don’t like what Chris has to say….

      • Todd says:

        No, she said NO chance of SNOW, I’m not putting anyone down I’m just pointing out the same weather team do not agree???

  2. Russ says:

    CB, there’s nobody better about getting the information out there than you. But these model runs can take a hike. The famous winter storms and epic cold spells are always next week’s weather. I was walking tonight in my shorts and noticed my pear trees were budding (already). Will I be firing up the lawn mower in time for New Years? Again, no slam on you, it’s just that the idea of an old school Winter in Kentucky is long gone. I hope you guys have pics of the epic snows of the 1970′s and 90′s, it’s the only time you’ll see snow that deep in KY.

    • Mark II says:

      I agree 100%. I have those onion bud things in my yard that come up in the spring. I’ve decided if it’s a forecast over 36 hours away – just ignore.

  3. Coffeady says:

    Thanks, Chris. So, question… How do I dress tomorrow? For cold and wet. Or warm and wet w/ cold rain? In other words, what is timing of the front for temp drop? For southern KY, early afternoon, mud or late afternoon? In and out all day at work, so it matters. Thanks for all you do.

  4. Thank you so much for this! We are in Paducah and we do not have TV, so we rely on Twitter for storm info, and that brought me here. Much appreciated!

  5. Todd says:

    Mud in late afternoon a safe bet ;)

  6. Joey Wilson says:

    Folks, it’s only December 9th. We have about three months of “hopefully” winter weather ahead of us. Let’s not give up yet. One big snow in December would brighten our moods. It only takes one. :)

  7. Tominlou says:

    …. and then Tue 40, Wed 50, Thu 52, Fri 56, Sat 57…

    What happened to the “switch to winter” that’s been discussed for endless blog posts??? Love the forecast discussion and knowledge on Chris’ part but the winter hype is just too much. If the weather is going to be dreary/rainy/average, say it. We are always told to “not live and die” by the models…. but aren’t these the same models everything is based on? We all want a snowstorm but the overall pattern is not budging- that’s obvious. Three days out max. lol

    • Russ says:

      Bottom line, it’s the same garbage as last Winter. Once again, if you want cold and snow, venture to Alaska. Maybe the northern 1/3 of the country will get some fun and games, but the rest of us will put up with 60degree spring air and crazy model runs.

    • Chris Bailey says:

      The week of December 7th-14th has ALWAYS been described as the week the overall pattern makes the transition into winter. No one can deny the pattern this week has totally changed and we are now seeing winter showing up across the country. This call was made by me around Thanksgiving and is certainly coming to pass. That’s not “hype”… it’s just a fact.

    • greg says:

      You can, in fact, have winter weather without a flake of snow. Check back in tomorrow and tell us if you are colder than today:)

      Yep Id say most of us who read this blog would love a winter storm, but Chris did not advertise this at all. So, I’d say he called it pretty close from a very long distance.

      It’s hype because he likes winter weather. I hardly look at the weather sites (including this blog) during non winter months. I too am biased toward the winter and I enjoy “magnifying” the smallest chance of such weather.

      Keep up the good work CB.

      • Tominlou says:

        So in December, if you get a sharp drop in temps for 48 hrs. due to a cold front, that means winter is now “on?” The average temp for a daytime high in KY right now is what…45, 46? By the end of the week, all I have seen are temps hovering around 55. Ten degrees above normal and this is our switch to winter? Does a small stretch of a cold day or three (even still well above 32) now mean a pattern change?

        I will gladly eat my words by week’s end if the temperature is 40.

  8. Thanks for the updates Chris. I appreciate everything you do and have since the original WKYT blog. I for one hope it doesn’t snow anytime soon. My son will be traveling from Richmond to Owensboro on 12/21 and I would like nice and safe roadways for him. I must also say that the negativity in the comments is sometimes comical. Some act as though Chris orders the weather up himself. I like hearing about the possibilities myself. If it doesn’t pan out and the tracks shift, oh well! Be glad you’ve nothing bigger to worry about :)

    • Tominlou says:

      Weather forecasts are actually very important to me, as my job as a landscape company owner/snow removal contractor in the winter centers around all things weather! It’s nice to have a decent idea of what is coming up. Does it have to be exact? No. But it is someone’s job (with many aids, such as modern computer models and years of statistical data) to get pretty darn close. Of course no one can predict the future. No negativity here… only questioning what the point of these long-range predictions are, after the vast majority seem to fizzle. Again, I greatly appreciate the outlooks by Chris.

      • That’s fair. In my line of work in the medical field, the weather is very important to me as well. Still, Chris is laying out possibilities in a lot of situations and not a forecast. I just feel that some take the possibility as the forecast. Take care!

      • Ready4Snow says:

        Snow removal contractor in ky don’t seem like a good investment to me..lol…We do live in ky in case you don’t know..Have you checked the years of statistical data as you put it to see what the annual snow fall is for ky…Honestly some of these post’s lately seem on the edge of borderline psycho…Here it is December 9th and some actually believe we should have 40 inches of snow on the ground…Check your climo for ky..Maybe you’ll figure out then.. lol

        • Tominlou says:

          First, never said I expect 40″ of snow on the ground or anything like that. I am completely comfortable with it being early December and having no snow…. now at the end of February if we have nothing- THAT’s a different story.

          Second, you have no idea what you are talking about with respect to commercial snow and ice removal. The outfit I plow for (I am a sub) can bill tens of THOUSANDS of dollars in 24-36 hours for even a mid-range snow/ice event. We do small cities, tons of roads not covered by Lou. metro, and large commercial properties. Snow work a gamble? Yes… incredible margins? Yes. Anyway, thanks for the business lesson and advice.

  9. HEB says:

    C.B. has lost his touch.No snow days wanted here.

  10. Jeff Hamlin says:

    What will be, will be. It’s all good.

  11. Aaron C. says:

    Kentucky may not be Michigan, but Michigan sure looks like Kentucky tonight. Look at whose thunderstorms are robbing whose moisture! Ha ha HA!!!!

  12. KRinRichmond says:

    Winters in Ky are virtually non existent. A few token snows but primarily rains and above average temps. This could change in Jan/Feb but I doubt it. Seems when it’s cold the air is dry and when air is wetter than wet, like this weekend. it’s always warm. Oh the winters of the 70′s. Where have you gone. Be nice if we could get some snows like Minneapolis got today.

  13. Chris Bailey says:

    It’s funny that all I heard last week was that no one else was calling for a big drop in temps this week and that I must be wrong. Everyone else apparently had temps in the 50s to near 60 according to some comments on here and some emails I received. I can’t help what everyone else forecasts and could care less. I do my thing and let the chips fall where they may.

    Told ya I was in a bad mood today. ;)

  14. HEB says:

    hopefully the chips will fall & the snow will go.

  15. Bernard P. Fife says:

    Chris everyone here is still on your side…keep that chin up! As a winter lover (i may be in the minority) but i can live with the small snows if the temps are good & cold. Don’t get me wrong snow is priority 1….but a nice cold snap is #2 on my list. I just hope we don’t get a drop in temps for a few days then back up the roller coaster in to the 60′s we go!

  16. Wes says:

    It’s all the Bengals fault…lol

  17. Wes says:

    Nam being “bullish”…meaning it isn’t wanting to let go of the snow for tomorrow evening?

  18. JJTeach says:

    Can someone post a link to the new NAM please?? I want to see what CB is talking about.

  19. Bengalfan says:

    I bet I was in a worse mood bout the bengals than u we’re Chris,,,I knew they kept wasting opportunities, dropping balls, kept cowboys in it, just so,so frustrating to watch that happen,,I’m still fuming over this game, many times I hate being a bengals fan,,but I can’t switch teams…basically like I’m a big snow fan, but so frustrating pulling for it here in cky…..

    Now here is my question, many have somewhat talked bout today on here,,,who sets wkyt 7day outlook forecast. Look at it right now..it’s in the mid 50s thu,fri,sat…rain 45 on Sunday..when we heard transition to winter, I didnt think of this type of weather….if your making the wkyt 7 day, r u playing it conservative , because on the blog your sounding Iike its going to be colder?

    Gosh, I’m still fired up bout them bengals

  20. SK says:

    Thanks for all you do, Chris. I enjoy reading your blogs; they’ve certainly inspired me to learn more about weather patterns and how they form. Reading your predictions are not only informative but entertaining, too. It’s part of my daily routine! Keep up the great work!

  21. Jeff Hamlin says:

    The one reason I want a nasty cold snap is to kill off all the nasty insects and allergens.

  22. Kelly in Louisville says:

    Quite an impressive thunderstorm we had. If I can’t have snow, thunder and lightening is pretty cool.

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