Good Monday afternoon everyone. The big shock to the system is underway as temps continue to drop into the 30s from west to east. Heavy rain is slowly working out and being replaced by a mix of sleet and light snow. That’s a trend that will continue through the rest of the day into the evening hours.

It looks like some light snow showers and flurries will continue into early Tuesday morning. The short range RAP picks up on this lingering moisture…

A coating is possible in some areas. There’s a lot of water out there and with temps dropping below freezing later this evening and overnight, black ice may become a real problem. Keep that in mind.

The next system this works in this weekend and cuts due east across the Ohio Valley. It’s a much colder look than the models had a few days ago and I still don’t think they have settled in yet. What is interesting to note is some of the models try to pop a secondary low just to our east by late Sunday and Monday.

That kind of gets the ball rolling on a series of storms to impact our region next week. The European 500mb map shows that well…

 That is a very active set of maps and one that can really ramp up one of those systems into a Ohio Valley winter storm. What will raise the stakes of that happening is the mega block forming across eastern Canada…

That setup forces systems to drop down the west coast then head eastward under the block. Setups like that can sometimes lead to extreme events as we head closer to Christmas. We shall see.

Speaking of… nothing says Merry Christmas quite like Wham!

I will throw another update your way this evening. Take care.