A Series Of Storms Ahead

Good Wednesday morning everyone. The weather around here for the next few days looks rather boring as the sun returns. Boring is not a word I would use to describe the pattern starting this weekend into next week. We have a series of storms to track across our region and the one early next week could mean business.

The first storm system rolls into the Ohio Valley on Saturday and increases our rain chances. Several models are now developing another low Sunday and then taking it to the northeast and bombing it out. We will need to keep an eye on that for Sunday night and Monday morning. The next low is the one I have been talking about for a while. It is likely to take a track to our south and could bring a big dose of winter to our region.

Look how active this setup is on the European Model…

That Tuesday evening storm then turns the corner right up the east coast on Wednesday…

As you can see, there is a ton of action going on and any one storm will have an impact on the storm behind it. You will see some wild model swings today and into the next few days. (GFS, I’m looking at you ;) )

Moral of the story is we are in the game next week and just have to sit back and see how it all plays out. Whether or not we are in the sweet spot remains to be seen.

I will update things later today. Have a great day and take care.


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66 Responses to A Series Of Storms Ahead

  1. alena says:

    Thanks for keeping us aware of what is happening. Maybe we will have a white Christmas this year. Keeping my fingers crossed.

  2. james says:

    Thanks Chris. Looks like we will have the systems to come through, but will we have the cold air in place to get snow out of them?

  3. Dawnp007 says:

    Please let it snow, please let it snow, please let it snow!!!

  4. BengalFan says:

    Sit back and wait..Its like the next “series of storms”–3 of them (games) that the bengals have in the next several weeks, sit back and watch…I wish it would happen, but Chnaces are it WON”T!!!! But we can Pray

  5. bjenks says:

    Thanks Chris for the update!
    I hate winter and all these models. Wish we were back in the 70′s and 80′s when all we knew was what the Local TV mets were telling us what would happen today and tomorrow and a couple days after. Now we have all these models to show us where and when it MIGHT Snow a week out. I will say the second low has a very decent chance of giving at least SE/KY a decent shot at snow. For the rest of KY lets hope the low intensifies, skirts us to the south and rides up the West side of the Apps. That would bring a decent snow event for most of the state. I am sure this blog will be going crazy over the next few days. THINKS SNOW!!! Have a great day everyone.

    • MarkLex says:

      HUH?

      Not to get AHEAD of a non-existent storm yet….But—-

      I thought I’ve read several times on these forums that in order for central KY to get snow, it would have to go up the east side of the apps – that if it goes up the west side, it’s too close for snow. Am I wrong?

      • bjenks says:

        As long as the track is not an east coast track or a E/KY track then we can pretty much count on snow for the central part of KY. I am no Met just and Arm Chair QB that has followed the weather/patterns for over the past eight years. I live in Lou. (GO CARDS!) and have seen that any low that tracks along Northern TN and up the West side of the Apps. give us the biggest snows. If it goes up the spine or just to the east the totals are not as healthy for the Lou. area. Since you are in Lex. the eastern track may favor you for a decent snow and not Lou. This will be fun to track and I hope for it pans out for the both of us. Of course in terms of the snow dome it will more than likely move through the southern portion of TN and out to the coast and we miss all miss out. Cold and sunny sucks as much as cold rain.

      • Joey Wilson says:

        No definite answers to that question. There’s too many variables but, in general, a track up the west slope of the Apps will give western/central KY a good chance of snow and a track up the east slope of the Apps would be more likely to please snow lovers in central-east KY. There’s generally not one track that would please snow lovers statewide.

        I’m not met but have watched the weather closely for many years. The chance early next week appears to put much of KY in the hunt for a decent snow. We’re still 6-7 days away and the models will change 50 times between now and then.

        • bjenks says:

          I agree!!

          • Ready4Snow says:

            statewide i would like too see a 950mb low bomb out somewhere in the middle of southern tenn border drawing moisture from the gulf with 850 temps of -8 for the entire state and just sit there for a couple of days spinning and spinning and spinning…lol

            • Pierce says:

              I want a low pressure system to come out of the pacific phase with a gulf in northern Louisiana, and then go through northern Mississippi, northern Alabama and then ride the spine of the Apps VERY slowly, and then start drawing moisture from the gulf and Atlantic. Bomb out to 970 mb, and give us 60 mph gusts. That is my ideal snowstorm.

        • WxFreak says:

          January 1994 did have a snow storm with the “perfect” track for the whole state. Pretty much the whole state from Louisville to the southeast, and even further west toward Bowling Green has significant/heavy snow, followed by bitter cold. Most of the major Interstates were shut down. Oh, to have another one like that in our lifetime.

  6. Dara says:

    Hoping for old school as Rolo says…..it seems other mets are on board but I’m pretty sure we all heard it here first :)

  7. Kat says:

    Does this storm next week include the Louisville area?

  8. Which Way Is the Wind Blowing says:

    If I had to lay money down,I would bet on rain changing to some light snow.

  9. TONEY says:

    folks, right now it is only eye candy but this pattern is loaded with POTENTIAL but nothing carved in stone……pay no attention to any model especially the gfs this far out…….if the models start converging by saturday which would be 3 to 4 days prior then i would say that chris would put out a winter storm threat but not before then and only under them circumstances…..folks, winter on the calendar has not even started yet so give it a chance…..winter is a lot like summer……after a long hard winter it takes the atmosphere time to cool back off and allow the cold air to build and that is the same way in the summer……it takes time to warm things back up….hence….you always have cold spells in the spring times and you always have warm spells in fall and winter……patience my friends……thanks for reading and god bless.

    • TONEY says:

      i should have said after a long hard winter it takes a while for the atmosphere to warm back up….sorry for the mistake.

      • TONEY says:

        as for the summer, it should have said after a long hot summer it takes the atmosphere time to cool back off…….geeeez…..i think i am going back to bed…..sorry for the mistakes….i hope no one is confused……i know i am….lol

  10. MIke says:

    But what about the weather balloons in Mexico? Weren’t they the key to last year’s mega-bust? IWBIWISI (I will believe it when I see it.)

    • Mark says:

      I was just about to ask this very question.

      Have the USA and Mexico attempted any negotiations to have more Mexican balloons and to share the data?

      • MJ says:

        Mexico already shares the data via weather treaties signed internationally. As to getting a more dense network down there. I highly doubt it.

  11. Jake says:

    What was with today’s thick frost? I know at 6am when I was up it was super foggy, and then now even with the sun on it, I saw the frost. Took some pics.

  12. Tom in Rockcastle says:

    I am not putting any hope in a system that is a week away. I have learned not to do that because 99 percent of the time you will end up burned. Therefore I only watch systems that are a few days away. And furthermore, I have never, and I repeat never, in the last 30 years, seen a system that was rain to snow amount to anything more than a small hill of beans.

  13. Coffeelady says:

    Certainly is looking interesting. You are right, Chris,. our storms usually do come out of the southwest, and take a track like this one is showing. Now if we can just get it to take the right track, we MIGHT be in business. Time will tell, I guess. Have a great Wednesday, everyone!

    • BubbaG says:

      Again, the last southern fed system that hit North Madison with big snow was 1998 and started as cold rain. IMO, North Madison is ground zero if the proverbial dome.

      • MIke says:

        I agree — In my Mad Co back yard we haven’t had more than 6 inches at any one time since i have lived hear (8 years) and probably 24 inches TOTAL for all 8 years.

  14. BubbaG says:

    When did you get the other one percent?? ;)

    Actually, the last big snow for north Madison was in 1998 and started out as a heavy rain. We have gotten a few six offers since then, but were all from over performing clippers that had wrap around action. One of the events seemed like more than six inches, but was a perception issue due to dry snow drifting.

    • BubbaG says:

      Darn spell correction, meant inches and not offers.

      • 3789N8436W says:

        Agree about the dome-in summer also…you can stand outside and see the storm scoot toward Clark Co or drown southern Fayette but there is something about the bridge, the river or an invisible but hateful weather sprite that keeps us dry most of the year. Bizarro.

  15. Andy Rose says:

    seen the 1st white roads on knox/bell this morning

  16. Todd says:

    Pay no attention to those models behind the curtain, The great and mighty Chris has spoken, Bring us the broom of the wicked snow dome witch! Hopefully we can use it to sweep snow off my porch ;)

  17. Emerson Biggins says:

    Again the most negative people I have ever met (at least in an Internet comment section). POWER OF POSITIVITY! I would hate to work with some of you. It will happen, it’s going to happen, have faith, it’s the Xmas time of the year.

    • BubbaG says:

      It’s gonna take a trend buster to change the attitude. On the darker side, this is cordial compared to when misses start accumulating. It kind of has a Mad Max Beyond the Thunderdome vibe then.

      • Emerson Biggins says:

        It’s already started, Waco Texas just set record lows that go back to the infamous 1917-1918 winter. It’s only a matter of time. POWER OF POSITIVITY! The odds are in our favor, it’s been to long, it’s going to happen. Remeber, POWER OF POSITIVITY!

  18. Derek says:

    12z GFS shows a rainy tuesday and wednesday next week. No snow whatsoever. Dont know what the ensembles are showing.

  19. Wes says:

    Showing rain and 47 here.

  20. BengalFan says:

    The people who get in bad moods or who have negative(sometimesme) comments, are the ones who reads the blog everyday and takes the bait of all the models in a long range forecast..when it goes wrong, or it doesn’t snow much, we all get cranky. But, for some reason we coming back here and seeing what Mr. Bailey has to say, POTENTIAL…Our tongues start to hang out and we pant for something to happen. So, we will wait and see for this one early next week..Then if that one dont work out, I’m sure the next week well….

  21. Seth says:

    Seems like we have a “Gillispie” low for this storm on the 12z gfs meaning it turns a winning snow storm for central kentucky into a losing cold rain deluge. ;)

  22. Todd says:

    Winter storm lovers here in ky are just like being a Bengals Fan (I am one) just when we get our hopes up a last minute model change/Field Goal :(

  23. Pierce says:

    Note: GFS is likely way too warm. There is a snow pack to the north and that blocking high will be another source of cold air to draw from. Euro has an AWESOME track for a hefty winter storm.

  24. Todd says:

    If the snow pack keeps building in the northern US that can help our cold air source, last year the north had no snow pack to tap from?

  25. rolo says:

    memeberm y post yesterday bout er to watch next few weeks.

    well I still like what im seeing for S/SE KY next few weeks.

  26. rolo says:

    ok im sorry I been trying to prroof read more but I butcHARd that last one. justy excited bout what weather has instore thru end of the year.

  27. rolo says:

    OLD SCHOOL i smell. well the tracking of next week low sure makes me remember OLD SCHOOL tracks, now im not saying were going get 2 feet.

    but 8 plus not out of question for SE KY!!!

  28. dawnp007 says:

    Tooo funny!!!!!

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